The Top 10 Recruiting Programs During the Rivals Era (2002-2016)

But citing this table as evidence is conflating correlation and causation. Did Alabama have better recruiting classes in the three years prior to their first National Championship or the three years after?

I think Boise State was just much, much better at coaching and developing talent than anyone else in the Mountain West.  Gave them a better path to 10+ win seasons, and then berths in big bowls.  And once they were there, Petersen is every bit as good of a coach -- if not better -- than the Bob Stoops of the world, so with a month to prepare for the game, Boise did very well.

Boise State did recruit a few 4-star level players, and set a few guys to the NFL, but I don't know if the amount of 2/3/4 star guys they sent to the NFL was any better or worse than a typical program.

It starts with coaching. They've gotten some good players, but what all-world monster player do you remember carrying Boise State to unexpected success? There aren't any. They've had some good QBs, but nobody that would set the NFL on fire (Kellen Moore was their best product, wasn't he?). It does help that there's a lot of space out there, pretty far away from the focal points of college football. The west coast is a place where they can scout and find players without the big boys out east moving in.

The conference helps, too, obviously. They were the best team in their conference by a country mile, which allowed them to rack up the wins while scheduling a big game or two to strengthen the resume. Since a lot of P5 teams wouldn't touch them, they would wind up playing a mid-level team like VaTech quite a bit, acquiring a respectable win or two.

They performed about as well as a team in their position could perform. Now that the coach is coaching at Washington, Boise is receding back to the pack while UW looks like a power for the next decade.

Wait - isn't saying Boise doesn't really overachieve, they just find under-scouted players just a backdoor way of saying starz aren't everything?

If the services are missing guys (they can't be everywhere, right? They stick largely to known areas of talent, population) - and a couple of schools are consistently finding guys who outperform their rankings, then those are who I'd personally describe as the best coaches.

That list is led by Chris Peterson, and unfortunately includes Dantoni (or did for a decade anyway). That list most definitely does not include Brady Hoke!

Posters on this blog have said that for college football, coaching is recruiting. Way too simplified. We'd all like 25 5* every class, and so would all our rivals, But it's how those #150-400 ranked guys perform - specifically outperfom/overachieve - that will decide who wins conference titles and gets in the CFP. 

Well, that and nice cars....

USC seems to be one of the programs least affected by a poor season or two on the field in recruiting. LA always plays to kids nationally, and it is very difficult to go head-to-head with the Trojans for a kid from SoCal that they want. It's a uniquely strong mix of program tradition, weather, academics, and NFL production. 

Mid 80s Bowden to mid 00s Bowden was among the best runs in CFB.  Late 00s Bowden was like late stage Carr for sure.

I also think people underappreciate Jimbo Fisher a bit.  As we saw here it's not just about getting talent, you need coaching to get those 10-11 win seasons he does annually.  Things have fallen off a bit here the past 2 years but if they find any QB play this year they could be in the top 3 this year.

Jimbo Fisher (ACC) (2010–present)

As an avid fan and consumer of all things Michigan football, i can hazard a pretty fair guess -

we'd be just below that top 10 recruiting cutoff in the OP, and not too far above Tennessee in the most disappointing results table. From '02-'14 at any rate.

Pretty hard to get any reliable data from Harbaugh's recruiting classes yet, but we can readily see the value of great coaching. How many Hoke players are about to cash in thanks to Jim Harbaugh taking this job?!

UM usually comes in #5 to #15 the past few decades in a typical class (excluding the tiny classes). And in the past 20 years they have mostly underachieved.  ND & UM have been almost parallel programs in many ways the past 20 years.  Former Midwest dynasties living off the past and churning through coaches trying to find their way.

ND, UM, and GA have all had moments of brilliance but I'd say have all been major underachievers the past 2 decades - and TN has just plain underachieved.

TX for all the Mack Brown hate had a decade of double digit wins every single year from 2001 to 2009.  And hit the crown with Vince Young.  Since 2009, it's been very mediocre.