Too soon? Latest Bracketology from Lunardi...

Submitted by oriental andrew on January 9th, 2012 at 3:06 PM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Latest bracketology, updated today, as the following Big Ten teams and UM opponents represented.  7 Big Ten teams total.

East:

2 Duke (vs. 16 Bucknell)

8 Illinois (vs. 9 Harvard - Amaker woo???)

West:

1 ohio state (vs. 16 Weber State)

7 Purdue (vs. 10 Wichita State)

Midwest:

8 Wisconsin (vs. 9 Dayton)

5 Virginia (vs 12 Belmont)

11 Memphis (vs 6 Creighton)

2 mihcigan state (vs. 15 Buffalo)

South:

5 Michigan (vs. 12 FSU or Xavier)

2 Indiana (vs. 15 Cleveland State)

 

Comments

Moleskyn

January 9th, 2012 at 3:15 PM ^

Well, I think it is way too early, since we're only 4 games into the conference schedule. But I would not want to be the team to face Xavier in the first round.

M-Dog

January 9th, 2012 at 7:16 PM ^

Man I wish I had his job.

Do you think anybody is going to go back to this prediction and hold him to it?  The only one that matters is the one the day before the Selection Show, and by then there's not a lot of guesswork.

 

ijohnb

January 10th, 2012 at 7:36 AM ^

State at a 2 seed?  They have a nice little thing going right now but that team is not going to be where they are right now come March.  I think Michigan stands a better chance at a 2 seed than State does.

rmic2

January 9th, 2012 at 3:31 PM ^

Have never seen Michigan hoops before, so I hope they land in the Pittsburgh 'pod'. Or I will even take Columbus, since I can drive there.

Michigan as a #3 seed taking over C-Bus for a weekend would be nice

JR's Flow

January 9th, 2012 at 3:48 PM ^

5th seed is sometimes considered cursed....

http://www.docsports.com/current/ncaa-tournament-seed-history.html

2-The number of No. 5 seeds to reach the Championship game. Florida did it in 2000 and Indiana in 2002, but both lost in the final game.

86-38- The record of the No. 5 seed against the No. 12 seed. The No. 12 seed is winning more than 30% of the time, so that is certainly an upset that has become quite common.

bronxblue

January 9th, 2012 at 3:57 PM ^

Looks about right - given the breakdown and how this team has looked on the road, a 5th seed sounds about right.  In the end, I expect this team to be a top-4 seed if they pull off an upset or two, but it is nice to know that UM is a presumed in, unlike the past years where a bid was in doubt.

LSAClassOf2000

January 9th, 2012 at 5:14 PM ^

If that were going into the tournament right now, I am willing to trade seeds with 4 or 6.  Xavier would be a nailbiter, I think. I would rather have FSU, if that were the case. However,  I bet both Xavier and FSU move away from the 12 spot. 

My hope is that we win a few in-conference games that we're not expected to win and do better than a 5-seed. I share the reservations of others about this position in the tournament as it seems like the perennial trap game of the tourney.  

Stephen Hawking

January 9th, 2012 at 5:08 PM ^

but doesn't a 5 seed seem low for the #13 team in the country? If one goes in groupings of 4 then it stands to reason that we'd be somewhere in line for a 3-4 seed right? Or does Lunardi project the rest of the season to factor into his rankings, for instance assuming UM to end up ranked from #17 - #20?

Just wonderin' brah

 

WolvinLA2

January 9th, 2012 at 7:19 PM ^

Don't pay too much attention to the polls when thinking about seeds, because they often don't match up.  The selection committee doesn't look at the polls. 

A better indicator to look at is RPI.  On CBS's RPI predictor, we're #26, which would put us as a 7 seed.  Now, that takes SOS very strongly into account, and a lot of those are artificially high or low right now because conference play has just started, so we will likely move up as we play more Big Ten games. 

Also, Lunardi's bracketology predicts what will happen in March, not where these would fall if the season ended today, although the results probably wouldn't be different. 

mfan_in_ohio

January 9th, 2012 at 7:24 PM ^

Would love to see this.  Rematch of one of the great first-round upsets, at the end of the "Season on the Brink".  CSU knocked out #3 seed IU on its way to a stunning Sweet 16 appearance.