Tonight's first CFP ranking - what say you?
Oh, c'mon, what ELSE would you possibly be doing tonight?
So - what do you think WILL BE the top 4 teams tonight, and who do you think SHOULD BE the top four?
Will Be: 1 - Georgia; 2 - Alabama; 3 - Ohio State; 4 - Notre Dame
Should Be: 1 - Georgia; 2 - Alabama; 3 - Notre Dame; 4 - Oklahoma
October 31st, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
Wisconsin is going to be in the top 5-6. That will be beyond a joke.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
I doubt they get that high. Oklahoma or Osu will be 5. 6 and 7 may go to Clemson and Penn St. I think Wisc may come in at 8.
October 31st, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
Living in Georgia, it's becoming almost unbearable. They've anointed themselves the Bama Slayers and the rightful kings of the CFB world. It's almost like they forgot that it's Football and the Superbowl was only 9 months ago. That said, I think the 1 and 2 spot are outright Bama then GA. This will sort itself out shortly, so I'm not worried about it unless the rest of the power 5 conferences have a complete meltdown. Think UM winning out (Unlikely, but I like to live dangerously). The only team I see from the Big 12 having a chance is OK. From the Pac 12, I don't even know. Nothing stands out. So My order would be this.
Bama
GA
ND
WI (Strength of schedule is weak, but they've won and done it fairly convincingly. This too will be sorted out in the last few weeks).
October 31st, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
"Fairly Convincingly" is what everyone says because they haven't watched Wisconsin at all this year because their schedule is THAT bad.
Northwestern had a chance to drive the field at the end of the game to win, and they struggled with Illinois last week. A couple weeks ago they only put up 17 against Purdue. They were losing to Utah State 10-0 at the end of the 1 qtr.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 2:48 PM ^
I agree, we should want Wisconsin ranked as highly as possible tonight. It will look that much better if we win, and not look as bad if we lose to a top 5 team on the road.
If I put my UM bias aside, the way I think the CFP committee should rank the teams right now would be to have Wisconsin at 9 or 10. If they beat us, they should jump a couple of 1-loss teams for getting their first good win, and jump the rest of the 1-loss teams if they manage to beat OSU/PSU in the B10 championship game. That would put them as the likely 2-seed, but it wouldn't put them in until they had actually beaten someone.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^
they didn't put away FAU until the second half (and still only went up by 17 at most).
The have played a very bad schedule. VERY bad. And they've struggled with half the teams on it. One doesn't even have to have watched them so know they haven't beaten everyone "fairly convincingly". Just look at the scores. They only beat Purdue 17-9 at home! Purdue: the team that last to Rutgers! The team John O'Korn scored 28 points on on the road!
If they had been destroying a weak schedule at least that would show up in the advanced stats but they don't do well there either (6th in S+P+, 11th in Sagarin, 15th in FEI, behind UCF and when you objectively compare their schedules, one could argue UCF's has been more difficult). They don't deserve to sniff the top 4, maybe not even the top 10.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:51 PM ^
Alabama has at least been convincing in all of their wins, even if against bad teams. FSU was a much better team for most of that game when they had a starting QB...
Wisconsin's schedule is a joke, and the CFP committee shouldn't reward them for that. UM would've had a ~95% chance of going undefeated with their schedule so far, and we definitely haven't looked like a top 5 or top 10 team.
October 31st, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. OSU
4. ND
I can’t stand any of those teams, but I would much rather have Georgia dethrone Alabama than having Bama win another.
October 31st, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^
1. Bama
2. Doesn't matter
3. Doesn't matter
4. Doesn't matter
October 31st, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
Post of the day!!!
October 31st, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 2:48 PM ^
since they beat OSU. They lost to ISU at home, which isn't horrible, but it's not very good. They struggled with Baylor who has not won a game. They struggled with K State and Texas, two 4-4 teams. They don't look very good on defense.
I don't like the argument that they should be ahead of OSU just because they beat them. Should ISU be ahead of OU? It's stupid to penalize a team that lost to a good team just because the optics look off when you're ranked slightly ahead of a team that beat you. But that doesn't mean a team should get a free pass for losing to a team that isn't ranked anywhere near them.
And I hope after last year's terrible mistake of including OSU, the committee has learned to favor recent performance (not blindly by record but by performance compared to expectations). Sucks for OU to bear the brunt of that lesson, but OSU did not deserve to be in the top four last year (PSU did), and it doesn't look like OU deserves it right now either.
October 31st, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
gtfo with Oklahoma
October 31st, 2017 at 1:00 PM ^
Georgia
Bama
OSU
ND
SHOULD BE
UGA
BAMA
MIAMI
WISKY
BEING UNDEFEATED TRUMPS ALL
October 31st, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^
UCF and Miami are both undefeated and have played harder schedules than Wisconsin so far
October 31st, 2017 at 2:57 PM ^
I posted above how Wisconsin should be somewhere around 10th (behind UCF, I would argue).
October 31st, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
I'd be okay with that for that next few weeks. Then if Wisconsin beats us and/or wins the B10 championship, they should jump them. The problem is the CFP committee hasn't shown much willingness to have teams jump others for getting a big win. They just drop teams for losing.
October 31st, 2017 at 3:32 PM ^
Lot of evidence of teams jumping up after big wins. Wisconsin will move up if they beat us and win the Big Ten. If they go undefeated, they're in (because they'll jump up and a lot of other teams will lose). But they do not deserve to be ranked hightly right now.
The committee has done a very good job in the first three years, except they made a huge mistake with OSU over PSU last year. My guess is they'll learn not to weight early season results too highly when teams struggle down the stretch (as OSU did last year).
October 31st, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
Dylan
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[Dylan]
October 31st, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
1) Georgia
2) Alabama
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame
5) Penn State
6) Ohio State
7) Wisconsin
8) Oklahoma
The Cmte has said they don't consider head to head until the very end of the process and right now, PSU's wins have been slightly better than OSU's.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
i wish this were relevant to me but it isn't (this year)
October 31st, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
I will consider this season a success if we can knock both Wisconsin and OSU out of the CFP. Ironically those two teams would still likely play for the Big Ten Championship, even if we beat them both.
October 31st, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^
end up in the CFP even if we beat them.
One of these things will happen this year for the first time:
- A two loss team will make it
- ND will make it
- Two teams from the same conference will make it
- A Group of Five team will make it
October 31st, 2017 at 7:47 PM ^
By no means would a 2-loss OSU deserve to be in the CFP. However, you're right, I would expect the corrupt committee to put them in, anyways.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
With 5 games left to play (including conference championship games) I'm not gonna get too worked up about these rankings.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
I'm gonna be boring and say
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio St
4. Wiconsin
3 of the 4 won't be in the playoffs.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^
Wisconsin does not deserve to be in the top four when none of the teams they've played have been ranked. That's not their fault, but if Wisconsin and Michigan swap schedules I bet we're #5 right now too.
I'd put Wisconsin between 7-9, behind Clemson, Penn State, Miami, and probably ND. If they go 12-0 in the regular season, I'd put them at 5. If they manage to somehow beat OSU in the conference title game, then I'd give them the green light for the playoff.
October 31st, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
because they scheduled USU, FAU and BYU as non-conf foes.
October 31st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
True, but BYU is usually at least halfway decent. If nothing else, it's not Wisconsin's fault that the rest of the Big Ten West is a heaping pile of garbage, and that this is an "off" scheduling year where they draw none of the Big Ten East heavyweights.
October 31st, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
I will grant you that BYU sometimes has a pulse but for that to be your best non-conf game is very weak. Even in their good years, they're a top 50 team, but still not a top 25 squad.
And yes, not their fault with the West and scheduling but they also shouldn't be treated like a normal Big Ten team given that heaping pile of garbage. Where they're ranked in the AP poll is a lazy "oh, an undefeated big ten team? let's put them 4th" without even considering who they've played or how they looked.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^
October 31st, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
IDGAF
You asked.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^
Final 4 at the end of the year will be:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georiga
4. Clemson
5. Notre Dame (ND gets in if any of the above get to 2 losses)
National Championship will be Bama/UGA rematch of SEC championship game
October 31st, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
if you assume all those teams win out (and Bama beats UGA). But that ain't gonna happen.
Watch out for UGA at Auburn, ND at Miami and of course, Clemson at SC and in the ACC title game and of course, OSU at Michigan!
October 31st, 2017 at 5:06 PM ^
So then ND will be in and OSU out. I just wonder if Ped St. can still get in the same way that OSU did last year. OSU lose to Michigan, wins in the B1G championship, doesn't get in with two losses and Ped St. gets in. Maybe.
October 31st, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
OSU made it in on the stregth of their road beatdown of OU last year. OSU also beat Wisconsin at Wisconson last year, which was more impressive than PSU's neutral site win over Wisco.
I don't think that OSU should have been in over PSU last year, but they had a much better argument than PSU would have this year. PSU played no one in non-conf and doesn't play Wisconsin. Also, eye test said PSU was lucky to beat OSU last year. Saturday's game was great, but OSU whipped PSU for about the final 3/4 of that game.
There is no maybe for that scenario.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^
I just can't see how OSU gets ranked ahead of OK. I'm not saying it won't happen, but boy if it does, it really discounts head to head. OSU got crushed at home to Oklahoma. Oklahoma's loss to Iowa St is not looking so bad right now. In my opinion, head to head in this matter should supercede quality of loss and overall schedule.
However it comes out, the ranking of OSU and Oklahoma is the headliner tonite.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
OSU got in but PSU didn't last year.
October 31st, 2017 at 3:18 PM ^
Big difference, last year PSU had 2 losses to OSU's 1. This year we're talking about 2 one loss teams.
October 31st, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^
playoff since the CFP started.
I don't see a B1G in the playoff in some of the scenarios and that doesn't seem right.
Whatever...
October 31st, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
Do people think Michigan willl be ranked? Personally, I could see them being 24 or 25. I get Wazzu beat USC but that looks unimpressive at the moment and getting blown out by Cal never looks good.
October 31st, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^
Agree on WSU. I also think we should be ahead of LSU (losses: Troy and Miss St.) and Stanford (losses: SDSU, USC, and last second win vs. a VERY BAD Oregon St. last week). In their defense, they were missing Love, but looked absolutely awful.
Overall, I feel like we've been treated a little unfairly with our drop in the polls via the MSU loss and IU OT win (who had a decent non-conference W over Virginia), but especially when compared to Stanford and WSU's past few weeks. Nevertheless, our resume sucks too so it's whatevs.
October 31st, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
we haven't beaten anybody. Unfortunately, all of our wins have aged poorly. Florida is a train wreck, AFA is in a rare rebuilding year, Purdue looked promising then lost to Rutgers.
LSU's win over Auburn more than offsets their "quality" of losses compared to us. I do agree that we should be ahead of Stanford because they haven't beaten anyone either, have looked iffy doing it, and their losses are worse. WSU is a bit of a tossup as their losses are worse, but wins are better.
October 31st, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^
You're right, we have no quality wins. Was hoping IU would run the table and make our OT win look a little nicer but no.
No matter between Stanford and WSU, we'll probably be ahead one and behind another next week since they play each other on Saturday. And LSU should lose to Bama so hope they get routed and we're close enough to pass em by next week. :)