Tom Fornelli From CBS Sports: Big Ten East Over/Under Michigan over 7 Wins

Submitted by gmgoblue1205 on

Tom Fornelli From CBS Sports did an Big Ten East Over/Under Predictions on Michigan. Here's what he had to say.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/252149…

 

Michigan, 7 wins (Over -110, Under -130)

I've been asked more questions about how Michigan will do in 2015 this offseason than any other team by far, and it's for the obvious reasons. It's Michigan, and it has Jim Harbaugh now. How quickly can he return the Wolverines to glory? I suppose that depends on your definition of glory, but as for whether or not the Wolverines can get to eight wins in 2015, I've gone back and forth on this topic so much that my opinion changes with the wind. I really don't like the fact that 5Dimes doesn't put any halves on these win totals because I stare at Michigan's schedule and I see 7-5 staring back at me. But Jim Harbaugh is known for pulling off some big upsets, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another one this year. So for now I'm leaning the over, but it could change if you ask me tomorrow. OVER 7 WINS

Wolverine Devotee

June 17th, 2015 at 10:35 PM ^

Harbaugh is gonna make a splash here in his first year.

Don't know who it will be against, but it's gonna happen just like it did at Stanford when they made a huge splash by beating USC.

The difference here is that he's walking into a much better situation here than at Stanford.

Zone Left

June 17th, 2015 at 11:06 PM ^

Well, not quite like Stanford. That was more akin to Purdue beating this year's OSU team by 3 touchdowns. Stanford was damn awful.

My guess is we struggle early, but finish a lot like Arkansas did last year--a seriously terrifying team that's more or less figured it out. 8-4 sounds about right, it's a question of how we get there.

Tater

June 17th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^

It would be great if one of the sports books offered 7 as an over/under.  There is no way this team is going to underachieve badly enough to not win at least eight games.

ThadMattasagoblin

June 17th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^

7 wins isn't much different from last year. Rudock is an upgrade over Gardner and we return a ton of players. We have the number 2 player from the class of 2014 waiting in the wings in Peppers and Harbaugh. Sounds like a 8 win season at worst.

Wolverine Devotee

June 17th, 2015 at 10:40 PM ^

Let's not forget the biggest upgrade of all.............THE COACHING.

These players are actually going to be coached. Especially the QBs.

Every QB under the Hoke staff got worse as they aged. It's like leaving food out and expecting it not to go bad. You have to tend to it. 

For the first time in their college careers, Shane and Wilton will be both receive proper QB coaching. 

ThadMattasagoblin

June 17th, 2015 at 11:01 PM ^

but 7 wins means that we beat just Maryland and Rutgers which we basically did last year and we haven't made any real improvement. Harbaugh can beat PSU. They weren't that good last year and even Hoke beat them. There's 5 games I think we can lose and it's Minnesota, MSU, Ohio, Utah, and BYU. I have a feeling that we aren't going to go 0-fer there so we'll finish with either 8 or 9 wins. People are just used to the Hoke years when the team doesn't get better from year to year.

alum96

June 17th, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^

Season swings on these 4 games IMO - @Utah, BYU, @Minn, @Maryland

Take 3 of those 4 and it should be a very solid season.  In UM's heydey 4-0 or 3-1 in that sort of guantlet would be expectation ....now it's a question for 2015.   Can Harbaugh return UM to normalcy in year 1 when going on the road against any team with a .500+ record wasn't a near guaranteed loss like it was with Hoke?  That's the question.

Obviously everything is just speculation due to this offense and lack of elite playmakers.  UM has to do a lot of things right on offense play after play which is hard to do since it can't rely on "special player" to be game changing 3-4x a game.  With lack of elite speed on the edges and dynamic WR / RB types who can break off 40 yard plays if the D makes an error we have to be efficient and solid.  How long does it take to get there?  If we are there by game 4 rather than by game 8 it affects the whole season.

  So the question is how quickly this offense can get to a place where it does the routine well and can string together 7-10 play drives, something severely lacking last year.

mexwolv

June 17th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^

We have 3 o4 4 pontentially good RBs, an elite TE, and a couple of decent receivers.  You put in a smart game-managing QB, improved OL,and you have an average offense in place.  I expect improvement in Special Teams play,as well. If the defense is as good as expected, then Michigan can at least keep every game compettive; smarch coaching and decision making will do the rest.  I expect a 9 win season.

Go Blue!

mGrowOld

June 17th, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^

I would say the over on 7 wins next year is easy money but then again I had us last year at 10-3 with a win over an SEC team in a New Year's Day Bowl and a top 10 final ranking.

So clearly I don't know shit.

Don

June 17th, 2015 at 11:44 PM ^

I don't think it's the case that you don't know shit—as a former recruiting staffer for UM you certainly know more than you imply—but optimism can get the better of anybody's prudent judgement.

I'm saying 8-4 which will disappoint plenty of people who unrealistically expected 10-2, but by the end of the season we will look magnitudes better than at any time since before Carr retired.

Muttley

June 18th, 2015 at 1:53 AM ^

than "is competitive in each and every game", which I expect.

9-3 isn't too far-fetched w/ some luck.  Or perhaps Harbz pulls a Bo 1969, going 11-3.

One early OOC loss (like Missouri).  Grrrr, lose to MSU.  Go on a roll down the stretch an pull a huge upset over OSU at home.  There's no B1G CCG comparison, so I'll put us down for a win against a Wiscy or Minny in the West.  Finally, we lose in the Rose.

M-Dog

June 18th, 2015 at 7:37 AM ^

Yes, it's the trajectory that matters.  Hell, I'll be happy with 7-5 if it's the right trajectory.

Don't discount the fact that Harbaugh and staff still have a very limited number of hours that they can spend with the team between now and Utah kickoff.  They are not going to completely re-train each player from scratch in a handful of coaching hours.  It will take some time. 

Esterhaus

June 17th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^

 

Nine wins regular season is the floor.  Everybody here can smell what's in the air.  I speak from decades of love when I say the vibes have never been better.  We'll muck up a game probably but this is going to be an excellent Meechigan Football season.  Our guys want victory even more than we do.  They finish within the top dozen.

Perkis-Size Me

June 17th, 2015 at 10:44 PM ^

I think a lot of how this season goes will hinge on the Utah game and potentially the BYU game. If Michigan is beat in those games, it's not a stretch to say that next year is a 7 win type season. If Harbaugh can win those games, perhaps even convincingly, and gain some momentum in the process, it could potentially turn into a 9-10 win season.

Either way, I think this is a team that, unlike Hoke's teams, will get better each week. They'll be as good as they're able to be by the time OSU comes to town, and those sacks of crap will hopefully be ripe for the upset.




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uminks

June 17th, 2015 at 10:46 PM ^

Harbaugh will beat the teams with lesser talent! The teams with greater talent may be UT, MSU and OSU. I expect one upset at home, probably against MSU and a close game against OSU. PSU on the road could be tough! Unless the team experiences a lot injuries I don't see a 7 or less win record. Heck, Hoke should have won 7 games last season and that team was not very well coached on the offensive side of the ball.

switch26

June 17th, 2015 at 11:02 PM ^

Explain to me how Utah has better overall talent? Watching them play us was tragic last year. Our coaching was so horrific that game it was amazing. We handed them the game in every way possible.

Their run game and pass game was predictable which will make them easy to defend again this year. I think we will run all over them with drevno and an experienced line this year

Bocheezu

June 18th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^

Typical Michigan out-of-conference road game where there's a huge amount of hype for the opposing fans.  This is like a UTL game for Utah; the cheapest ticket right now is $285 on StubHub.  That stadium will be hostile and U-M will be lucky to get out of there with a win.

Mr. Yost

June 17th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^

Hoke would've won at least 7-8 games this year.

I'm not saying we're going to the CFP, but we were always going to be better than last year.

I'll set the new over/under at 8 allow you to "push" rather than going 8.5 - to me, this is much more reasonable.

Even if you say MSU and OSU are two gimme losses, and they're not, IMO...that's saying we go 3-1 in the non-conference of west coast teams and then 1 more slip up against and Maryland or PSU or something.

I could realistically see us splitting with BYU/Maryland and MSU/OSU for 2 regular season losses. To me, that's realistic "high end" for 10-2, starting 3-2 and losing to both MSU and OSU feels like realistic "low end" and that's 8-4.

My hope is for the split of BYU/Maryland and the split of the rivals, 10-2 with a shot at a B1G championship game or one of the New Year's Six like MSU played in last year.

alum96

June 18th, 2015 at 7:44 AM ^

I dont think MD is going to be very good this year.   They were mediocre last year - look at the scores when they played real teams like OSU MSU and Wisconsin and feasted on bad teams.  Then they lost some of their key offensive talent.

I'd be a lot more worried about going into a pretty decent Minnesota if you are looking for a tough game.  @Minn seems more of a challenge than @Maryland this year.  Minn is soundly coached and doesnt beat itself too much - they will lose if they face better talent that is well coached but dont blow themselves up continuously like a lot of college teams.

ThadMattasagoblin

June 18th, 2015 at 7:50 AM ^

Yes agreed. Minnesota is a much better football team than Maryland. We pretty much had them beat in the 4th quarter until we fumbled it away at the end like we did with a lot of games. Penn State is home but they aren't that good. We sacked them a bazillion times last year. That's two games I have Harbaugh winning. Minnesota will be tough.

uminks

June 17th, 2015 at 11:01 PM ^

+1 win having Harbuagh, so I'll predict 9-3. Losses to UT, PSU and OSU. Upsets: MSU and MN.

Adding Rudock will help QB pay. I suppose Morris could beat him out but odds are he will start and will be a steady player that will not throw a lot of INTs!

Last year I predicted 8-4 but gave hoke a -1 for 7-5, which he should of achieved but lost 2 games they should have won!

PolskaPride

June 17th, 2015 at 11:07 PM ^

This team will play with a hunger that we haven't seen in a while. They will be ready to play their hearts out every game and Harbaugh will accept nothing less.

Rodriguesqe

June 17th, 2015 at 11:33 PM ^

For this year, and this year only, I care much more about who we beat than the win total. Theres one or two teams out there (*ahem*) that wins would mean everything for the beginning of the Harbaugh era.

M-Dog

June 18th, 2015 at 7:45 AM ^

Yes, beating MSU or OSU even while losing a bunch of the other games would make a huge statement.  Much more than the other way around.

If you manage to can beat Ohio State, nobody is even going to remember that you played Utah. 

We all talk endlessly about when Stanford/Harbaugh beat USC/Pete Carroll.  How did Stanford do in the rest of its games?  Who cares?  

It was that USC win that launched that program.