Thursday Bracketology

Submitted by ish on March 6th, 2014 at 1:42 PM

As always, Bracket Matrix lives here:

The Bracket Matrix currently ranks us as a 3 seed, the second of the 3 seeds, with an average seed of 2.73.  However, our average seed among brackets that updated prior to last night at 10 PM is 2.67.  That would not change our spot on the S-curve, but it would move us closer.  Of note, the brackets that updated last night did not account for the Duke loss.  Duke currently is a 2 seed on the Bracket Matrix, the last of the 2 seeds, with an average seed of 2.29.

Lundardni just updated his bracket:  (All Lunari disclaimers apply.)  He has Michigan a 3 seed, and the second of the 3 seeds:  Lundard notes:

  • He has Nebraska IN.  The last team in;
  • Minnesota is his third team out, FSU his fourth;
  • Stanford is getting close to his bubble territory;
  • B1G: MSU (4); OSU (6); Iowa (6); Wisconsin (2); Nebraska First Four, fighting for an 11.

Jerry Palm lives here:  He has Michigan on the 2 line, so Jerry Palm is your mass market bracketologist of the day and comes with no disclaimers.  His other B1G seedings are comparable to Luardi.  He also has Nebraska in.

Finally, Crashing the Dance: now has Michigan as its 7 team on its S-curve, meaning that we would get a 2 seed.  CTD gives no love to the Cornhuskers.


Blue Since B.C.

March 6th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^

Agreed.  Winning the toughest (or second-toughest, depending on your level of southerness) league in America by 2 games HAS to at least count for a 2-seed, as a team like Syracuse is floundering against the dregs of the ACC.  

And yes, Wisconsin is rolling, but no, they don't deserve to be ranked ahead of us.  Sorry.  Hopefully Nebraska solves this problem for us.

Buddy the Wolverine

March 6th, 2014 at 5:52 PM ^

Wins over Florida (yeah they were not 100% healthy), UVA, St Louis(looking less impressive now) are WAY more impressive than our OOC wins. Makes it hard to justify us over them considering we split our matchup (even though we are outright B1G champs. That being said, in my not so objective opinion, as an outsider I would much rather face Wisconsin in the tournament than Michigan. I too am pulling for Nebraska to make this point moot.

814 East U

March 6th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^

I agree with your comment about playing HORSE. However, I do not want to play Cuse or Duke at all. I know Cuse is on a slide and we beat them last year, but their length and athletic big men could be a nightmare if we are not in the zone in terms of shooting. I just think Duke is a strong team that will be difficult for anyone in the tournament.

Snow Sucks

March 6th, 2014 at 4:00 PM ^

I completely agree with this statement. I love how so many people say Wisconsin is better than Michigan, but the teams split the season series and Michigan won the conference. How does that make sense?

Snow Sucks

March 6th, 2014 at 10:06 PM ^

I understand your point, but don't agree with that idea. Non-conference games don't mean much. Michigan won more conference games and split the series, therefore I think they're the better team. On a neutral floor, I think Michigan wins.

EDIT: I guess it's hard to use the neutral court argument considering Michigan beat them in their house and Wisconsin beat Michigan in Crisler.

1989 UM GRAD

March 6th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

Thanks to you I have no idea how to correctly spell his name!  (and that's just fine with me)

And, to stay on topic, I just don't see how Wisconsin is a #2 seed.

Blue Mike

March 6th, 2014 at 3:11 PM ^

I can see it.  If you compare resumes, they are pretty similar.  We both have one bad loss (Charlotte vs. Northwestern), we both lost at Indiana, we split each other on the road.  Their only two other losses are at Minnesota and Ohio State at home.  The biggest thing separating us (and keeping them above us) is that we lost to Arizona and Duke, while they beat Florida and Virginia.  They have a legit resume.

That said, I still expect them to burn out of the tournament in the first weekend.  And I will laugh when they do.


March 6th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^

John Feinstein claimed multiple times this morning on his radio show that Michigan should be the final 1 seed. I thought it was interesting consider I think we're at 2 at best, but it was nice to get some national love.


March 6th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^

How do you weigh it all out.  You could argue Michigan against any school this year.


WSU: Who have they beat?

Zona: Hasn't looked nearly as good since Brand Ashley went down.  (Committe takes injuries into consideration.)

Florida:  SEC is dreadful.

Kansas:  Ok tough to put us past Kansas.

Villanova: Who has they beat.  4-3 vs RPI top 50

Virigina: Benfited from an inbalanced schedule.


All the same I don't think they will get a 1 seed.  But look at it from this stand point.  There is a chance that Michigan wins the toughest conferene in college basketball by 3 games.  Maybe they struggled early but its pretty clear to see that since January 1st Michigan is just as good as anyone else in the country.



March 6th, 2014 at 3:06 PM ^

You could argue for us ahead of Kansas if Embiid is more hurt than we know. If doesn't play in the Big 12 tourney and Kansas struggles a bit, the committee would, and should, take that into account. Hell, injuries aside, if we win our conference tourney and Kansas doesn't, we would likely be above them.


March 6th, 2014 at 3:27 PM ^

Forgot about the Embiid injury.  Good point.


I agree on the tourney account, I was going off of right now. 


I know most people don't agree, but I really think this team is 3 wins away from a 1 seed.  Beat Indiana and win first 2 games in the BTT. 

Although it WI makes the final with us, I think it would be winner gets the 1 seed loser gets a 2.  Assuming WI wins out.


March 6th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^

Over at TeamRankings, they have altered their projections a little bit (Duke is now a #3 and SDSU moved up, to name a couple changes from earlier). The top four seeds in their model now are - 

#1 seed - Arizona, Villanova, Florida, Wichita State

#2 seed - Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Syracuse

#3 seed - Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Crieghton

#4 seed - Iowa Stata, Michigan State, Louisville, San Diego State


March 6th, 2014 at 3:15 PM ^

Closet Michigan-hater Drew's Bracketology continues his assault on reason, listing Michigan as the last 4-seed on his S-curve.

This is Drew's first year in the Matrix and with his offerings throughout the season, it looks like he's going to be far off the pace of the actual bracket.  Laugh at guys like Luuunadrdiandiii and Palm all you want (well maybe not Palm, at least not for his brackets, but that hair), they are usually pretty close in their picks and seeds (not the best, but still good).  Picking the actual teams isn't too hard; seeding is the tricky thing.  Drew doesn't quite have that part down yet.

I commented on his last post, questioning his placement of Saint Louis so far ahead of Michigan, as well as Creighton, Cincy, and Duke.


March 6th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

I tweeted Lunardi and told him that it's absurd that Michigan wins maybe the best conference in college basketball by 2 games and he puts us as a 3 seed.


March 6th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^

Out of conference still counts and we still started 6-4 with a loss to charlotte, Villanova has nothing like that on their resume.  

Also I really selfishly want michigan to be in the east bracket, even if it means a 3 instead of a 2 because I live in NYC. But I could also for sure see Michigan fans taking over MSG and that would be great.


March 6th, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^

UM 10-5

Duke 4-4

Virginia 3-4

Wisconsin 8-3

Cuse 5-2

Cheer for Nebraska, Minnesota, and Stanford because Nebraska's RPI is 50, Minnesota's is 48 and Stanford 47. Those are 5 wins that could be gone just like that. From 10-5 and 2nd most RPI top 50 wins to 5-5.


March 6th, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^

Wichita St's record against Top 50: 2-0.  Their SOS is triple digits.  Yeah, they're undefeated but I don't see how they deserve a #1 seed.  I'm not saying they shouldn't be a high seed, but a #1 seed who has only played 2 Top 50 teams and has a SOS in the triple digits doesn't seem right.

Sons of Louis Elbel

March 6th, 2014 at 3:37 PM ^

Win the BTT. If we do, it'd be awfully hard for the cmte to make the regular season and tourney champs from the toughest conference a three, especially if it'd mean putting us behind another team from our own conference.


March 6th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^

Beat Indiana and win one game in the BTT and we're a 2 seed I think. Beat Indiana and win the BTT and we have a legit shot at the last one seed.


March 6th, 2014 at 4:08 PM ^

Wisconsin and Villanova are the top 2 seeds right now.  I think Villanova is, as usual, overrated, and will flame out early, but you can't say their resume is worse than any of those teams.  They have three losses, all to top 12 RPI teams, a neutral site win over Kansas, and most importantly, they have no bad losses.  

Syracuse, Michigan, and Virginia should be the three teams fighting for the other 2 #2 seeds, and each have two losses outside the top 50.  I have Michigan and Virginia as #2 seeds with Syracuse the top #3 seed, although based on resume it should probably be Syracuse, Michigan, Virginia.  I just think that the second terrible loss by Syracuse proves that the first one wasn't a fluke, and they also don't have the road success that Michigan has, with wins at Wisconsin, MSU, and OSU. 

I don't understand Duke ahead of Michigan at all.  Both have 7 losses, but Michigan's are to better teams, and Michigan has better wins as well. Duke has one road win against the RPI top 100 (!), a win at Pitt, who is on their way out of the tournament if they can't get a decent win.   Michigan has 5 in the top 50.  That's a miss by Lunardi.


March 7th, 2014 at 8:02 AM ^

Checking the numbers this morning:


Virginia is the last 2 seed with a 2.42 avg seed

Duke is now a 3 seed with a 2.59 avg seed

Michigan is 2nd 3 seed with a 2.60 avg seed.


It's going to come down to the wire.. We need to take care of business with Indiana.