Thursday Bracketology

Submitted by ish on February 13th, 2014 at 1:24 PM

Lunardi link (all standard Lunardi disclaimers apply): http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Notes:

  • Lunardi now has us as a 2 seed, up from a 4 last week. 
  • 20 brackets on the Bracket Matrix updated yesterday.  We were a 2 seed in one (seed-madness), a 3 seed in thirteen of them, a 4 seed in four of them and two idiots have us as a six seed.  Said idiots are Drew's Bracketology and GMoneySportspage.  I assume Drew and GMoney reside in Columbus or East Lansing.  I didn't look because I don't want to click onto their pages.
  • Bracket Matrix hasn't updated today, but yesterday's brackets account for the OSU win.
  • Lunardi no longer mentions IU, not even in his first four out or his next four out.  Thus the B1G has 6 bids.
  • The Big 12 has 7 bids in Lundardi's.
  • Lundardi also has MSU as a 2 seed.
  • He lists Minnesota as an 11 seed, getting pretty close to a First Four game.
  • Other B1G: OSU (6 seed); Iowa (5 seed); Wisconsin (4 seed).
  • Lunardi projects that we will win the conference.
  • OOC games that matter: Iowa St. (4 seed); Stanford (10 seed); Dook (2 seed); FSU (12 seed/First Four/second to last team in the field).

Comments

LS And Play

February 13th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

You are probably right. But if we do finish 16-2 in the Big Ten, we would have an absolute boatload of Top 25 Kenpom/RPI wins. Hard to argue we would be less deserving than Wichita State, right? Their best win is what, Tennessee? 

ijohnb

February 13th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

Even with a loss in big ten tourney. Would that be 26-7 overall, winning the big ten regular season going away. Yeah, I think that is a one seed, probably the lowest one seed or the highest two seed.

ish

February 13th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^

that's still pretty unlikely; we'd need a lot of help.  witchita state is going to get a 1 seend unless it loses, and even if it loses once, if it's on the road, close and to a decent team, it still might get a 1 seed.  syracuse has more or less locked up a 1 seed.  arizona has almost locked one up.  that leaves one 1 seed and right now it probably goes to florida.  other's in the discussion are duke, MSU, kansas and villanova.  we can pass MSU, the rest would require significant additional losses.

Key Play

February 13th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^

If we win out regular season and Tourney we would be 28-6. There is no way we wouldn't be a 2 seed in that scenario. I think the bad losses Charlotte(neutral) and Indiana (road) would keep us from getting the one seed because of the number of losses. Additionally this is a pretty strong year for 1 seeds- there is no way Wichita, Arizona, or Syracuse are losing a one seed at this point, So we would have to be ahead of that fourth team, Florida, and I don't think we have much claim to that spot even if we win out.  

Is it possible in other years that such a record could be a one seed? Maybe if there was a year of total parity with few great top teams. This year we still have two undefeated and a one-loss team that has looked great. and Florida who plays in an awful SEC such that they only have 3-4 hard games a year. 

Key Play

February 13th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^

Well played pun Turd.  If the Shockers do get shocked, then I think there is a real possibility IF we win out, Which seems impossible.  

I just think that Michigan doesn't control whether it gets a one seed, rather the other teams would have to fall back to us. That was more my point.  An undefeated Witchita State is way ahead of 6 loss Michigan by virtue of the outrage that would transpire otherwise.    If they lose, could be close. 

turd ferguson

February 13th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^

Makes sense.  I don't think we're getting a one-seed, but that's because I think we'd have to win out (including the tournament) and the probability of that is very, very low.  If that somehow happens, a 16-2 Big Ten team with regular season and conference tournament titles (and a brutal schedule) would certainly have a shot.

mfan_in_ohio

February 13th, 2014 at 7:21 PM ^

They have two losses (Syracuse and Creighton) and wins over Kansas and Iowa. If they beat Creighton in the return match on Sunday, they should run the table. You can make a strong argument that they belong ahead of Wichita State now, and if Florida loses to Kentucky this weekend, Villanova should grab that spot.

mGrowOld

February 13th, 2014 at 1:39 PM ^

Can somebody please explain the standards necessary to get one's bracket included in this poll?  GMoney's bracket is included yet he has no background in basketball that I can see, virtually no traffic to his blog and he's a freaking Canadian for the love of Naismith.

So his "vote" as us 6th counts as much as people who actually do this seriously?  That's pretty sad.

LS And Play

February 13th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^

I think BracketMatrix basically peruses the web for various brackets people have compiled, whether established or not. It's reliability comes from it's sample size, basically. And my understanding is that they remove bad brackets at the end of the year if they underperform consistently. 

Mgotri

February 13th, 2014 at 5:34 PM ^

This is the second year for gm.

Last year he had is at a four seed and was slightly above average picking the entire bracket.

I though he was just an OSU homer as well, but there isn't a ton of evidence for it outside keeping OSU a two after losing three games in January.

mfan_in_ohio

February 13th, 2014 at 7:14 PM ^

Basically, I started a blog about a week ago (bracketquest.blogspot.com) and started to do this myself, and emailed the guy to be included in the matrix. It's a lot of work to do it daily and do it right, but I don't understand some of the bizarre crap on the matrix. In fact, Drew's Bracketology was one of the reasons I started; I figured I couldn't do any worse than him.

As far as Lunardi, I don't see Michigan as a #2 at all. How are they ahead of Kansas? Kansas is better in every imaginable metric: RPI, strength of schedule, performance against common opponents ( they are 3-0 against Iowa State and Duke), bad losses (they have none). The only argument for Michigan is that many of their toughest games were on the road, but for me, it comes down to this: they have the same record, and Kansas played the tougher schedule, plus they beat the teams that we lost to. We are a solid 3 seed right now, with basically the same profile as Wisconsin, right down to the losses at Indiana and against a team just outside the RPI top 100.

Also, Lunardi has Michigan ahead of MSU, which is why he puts us in the Midwest region, which doesn't make sense either, unless you are willing to ignore our losses to Charlotte and Indiana.

gwkrlghl

February 13th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^

I would love to be in Wichita's region. They are this year's Gonzaga. Beating up really bad teams, playing competitively against mediocre-to-bad teams.

They're fancy and undefeated now but they'd be a multi-loss team in the Big Ten or really any other major conference (look at the before and after on OSU and Wisconsin - they'd be undefeated in WSU's league too)

LSAClassOf2000

February 13th, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^

TeamRankings would agree with Michigan as a #2 seed right now as well, and here's how they stack the rest of the conference (seeds only, not probable matchups):

#2 - Michigan State

#3 - Wisconsin

#5 - Iowa

#5 - Ohio State

#6 - Minnesota

So, six projected bids - the estimated probabilities for any other teams from the conference are not worth mention at this juncture, though they do estimate Indiana as having a 9% chance at a bid right now. 

Perkis-Size Me

February 13th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

I hope we are the team that knocks IU out of tourney consideration. I'd love nothing more than to watch that assclown Tom Crean walk off our court in shame, knowing his back-to-back-to-back Sweet 16 plans are ruined.

mfan_in_ohio

February 13th, 2014 at 6:53 PM ^

One of the Spokane pods will have San Diego St, because they are precluded from playing in San Diego as the host school. The other will be one of the leftover pods for the 4 seeds because all the closer pods will be taken. The other leftover pods will be in San Diego, maybe San Antonio and Orlando. The worst 4 seeds will probably get sent out west.

wayneandgarth

February 13th, 2014 at 5:39 PM ^

While I sure wouldn't mind Umich being a #2 in a bracket with WSU, I sure as hell don't like Lunardi's set up with KS as a #3 where we'd play them in the sweet 16 again.

MGoLesher

February 13th, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^

I am really hoping that Michigan stays as a 2-3 seed and gets the opportunity to play the potential Sweet 16/Elite 8 games in Indianapolis because it could easily turn into a second Crisler Arena if Michigan was to reach. And it would also tickle me to see MSU have to travel to Anaheim for their S16/E8 games.

michiganman01

February 13th, 2014 at 6:13 PM ^

Media pundits are together and they have us at a 3 seed. MSU is a 2. However they have Illinois vs MSU in the B1G 10 Championship Game (dont know what their simulaton method is). 

Right now we are a 3. If we win the B1G 10 we will be a 2. Also, to the person who asked has a 6 loss team ever been a 1 seed, it happened to 2 B1G 10 team the last 2 years. IU (27-6) last year and MSU (27-7) in 2012. Both won the B1G 10 Tournament. However this year with Cuse, WSU, Arizona, Florida having 0,0,1,2 losses, not so likely.

So yea, I think we will end up being 23-7 with will boost us to a 2. I dont know what gonna happen in the BTT. But if we win it all, 2 seed, if we lose, 3 seed. My thoughts.