The Talent Differential
I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda.
Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide
Consider this. Since 2013
- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!
- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.
It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.
- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.
Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).
Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
We didn't get blown out, but a loss is a loss all the same. We're definitely better than Iowa, we're probably better than FSU, and after last night I think we're better than OSU, but we lost all 3 of those games. We're ranked in the top 3-4 in pretty much all of the advanced rankings, but we're gonna finish ranked like 9th or 10th. That's underachieving.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:21 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:42 AM ^
But those weren't expected to be such limiting factors before the season started. With Harbaugh as your coach you pretty much expect nothing less than solid QB play year after year, and while overall Speight was ok he was abysmal against Iowa and FSU, and overall he was decent against OSU but killed us with a few critical mistakes. And with Drevno I think it's fair to say that improvement along the OL was expected and we didn't get it (I wonder if he's overwhelmed with playcalling and OL coaching duties because IMO he hasn't done a particularly impressive job here in either of those facets). We didn't get the improvements on the offensive side of the ball that we expected.
And look at OSU. Their offense was nothing special. They have a QB that can't throw the ball and only one skill player that scares you, they were incredibly young and inexperienced and had a worse defense than us and they still won 11 games and went to the playoffs. They accomplished what we were expected and hoping to. Clemson played many close games throughout the season but they found a way to win them, which we didn't do. Every team has their limitations.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:12 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:44 AM ^
Well yeah, it was a question mark and QB play is the most important aspect of any team. But with Harbaugh the general assumption was that we'll be fine at QB, but QB play was a big hindrance in our losses. And we have no depth there, I mean we all saw how bad O'Korn looked against Indiana. Just kind of disappointing that we didn't get more out of that position considering our coach's track record. I hope you're right on that last part. I'd love to see Peters win the job next year, because quite frankly I don't think we'll have a defense as good as we had this year that we can lean on with mediocre QB play.
January 2nd, 2017 at 5:23 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:22 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:17 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:17 AM ^
I think you are 100% correct here. Michigan can field a stud per postition. OSU can field 2. Alabama 3. Not only is Saban bringing in top 3 recruiting classes annually, but the continuity of his system being in place for a decade is huge. It will probably take 2 or 3 more recruiting classes (so that all players, Fr. thru 5th yr., are Harbaugh guys) to close the talent gap. Harbaugh guys that have been playing the the same system (O or D) their entire M career.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:18 PM ^
I will say this - with Jabrill playing we win that game, no real question. His returns alone would've been worth more than 2 pts. Forget his ability to limit some of Cook's big plays.
That being said, a W wouldn't change the fact that we were outplayed - and to be honest out-prepared as well. But when you win in the fans don't care as much about that stuff.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:47 PM ^
A 1-point loss with 32 seconds left, and you say M was out played and out-coached.
That's a snowflake hot take right there! You're probably one of the guys that thinks Harbaugh should go away, too, aren't you?
You do realize that losing Peppers a minute before kickoff threw the entire team for a loop, right? You do realize that Jake Butt - an All-America TE - would have made a huge difference in the goal line situations, right? But, of course, M would have been outplayed and out coached anyway, even if they won...
Some people should actually watch the games with the realization that the other team might have some players, too...
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:25 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:18 PM ^
dating back to Hoke and RR era. with a slightly better OLs, for example, Newsome is not injured. The outcome of this year could have been much better. O line is jsut that important, period. Hoke knows that, but he is just not able to fix it in player development.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:47 PM ^
The thing is, our talent was concentrated on the defensive side of the ball. I don't think anyone questions the talent we had there. But on offense, we had a new QB, an underperforming OL (very disappointing for a group with 3 seniors), a workmanlike RB, a couple of good but not exceptional WRs (Chesson didn't seem the same as last year) - and a great pass-catching TE.
As for FSU, I have no idea what happened to them against Louisville but the rest of the season they looked good. They won 10 games, lost a heartbreaker to a playoff team (Clemson) in part due to some questionable officiating, and their other loss (UNC) was on a last-second FG . . . sound familiar?
January 1st, 2017 at 11:51 PM ^
I may have to go back and watch that FSU - Louisville game. WTF happened there? Louisville looked like crap for the last 2 months.
I can't imagine that FSU right now would lose to Louisville right now.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:52 PM ^
most of those draft picks, and with the exception of Butt, all of the high draft picks are on the defensive side of the ball.
In 5, 10 yrs no one is going to look back at the 2016 offense and say any of the position groups, except Butt, are even in the discussion for possibly being Michigan's best. Michigan needs some significant upgrades at most of their offensive position groups. Those upgrades are coming but it's not going to happen overnight.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:35 AM ^
And this is what we said all summer . . . our defense would be great, but our offense had some big holes and those holes would be enough to keep us from being elite.
That is exactly what happened.
We got thrown off because it looked like the offense had caught up with the defense when we dominated some very poor competition in September and October.
But when we played good teams with good defenses - Wisc, Iowa, OSU - reality set back in. Our offense is not cahmpionship caliber.
That we almost won the Big Ten championship anyway shows how good our defense really was.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
What a huge loss he was :(
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
You're right about the way-inflated talent differential being floated around. (Although the present-ability differential between the FSU defensive line and the Michigan offensive line was stark.)
This was a missed opportunity. But Harbaugh didn't throw the pick six or the INT returned to the 15 against Ohio State. Harbaugh didn't blow the coverage on the 92 yard TD and had to have a true freshman on the field instead of Peppers for Cook's long 3rd and 22 run.
If you are Warde Manuel, evaluating your coach, you are very happy that your coach took a 5-7 group into playoff contention with a team that developed so well that you're disappointed that you didn't make it.
The alternative coaching options would have surely fared worse.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
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January 1st, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
Also, your cuts are way too tight on that methodology. Cutting at 98 and 95 limits the pool too much. You need to be looking at something more like 88 or 90. A lot of recruiting is less precise and more of a numbers game. You throw a dozen guys who are 90+ on your roster and plan to find the 1 great one, 2 other good ones, and 3 serviceable starters. And yes, that's not how it works for Alabama. Or maybe OSU of late.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^
You can argue the methodology
But the general guideline I went by was
- 98 = 5 star
- 95 = high 4 star
- 90 = low 4 star
Now you could have a 3 star (Khaled Hill) be a star and a 5 star (Derrick Green) flame out. But I'm guessing it evens out across all teams.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
Well anyway, appreciate the effort. I think you need a broader pool.
Citing just OSU and AL numbers is also cherry picking kind of the extreme end of the talent spectrum. Might be reasonable if we were about to finish 3rd behind those 2 but since we've headed for about a #10-#12 final ranking it would be more interesting to compare to teams a little above and a little below us. I'm a bit skeptical that you'll find similar results for schools like UW, WI, PSU etc.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:39 PM ^
I think we'll finish more like #7-9. Losing by one point to FSU is not going to cause us to plummet.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
Well we are #6 and I don't think we are passing anyone above us after a loss unless PSU gets completely destroyed, which is possible. I think USC wins by like 14 but PSU stays ahead of because they are still the B1G champs. Then we get passed by Wisconsin after they kill WMU, FSU, USC and OK if they beat Auburn. That puts us at 11. Don't see how we really could fall any further. If OK loses and/or we don't get passed by the loser of PSU/USC then yeah, could be 9 or 10. I'm not seeing 7 or 8. Don't see how we stay ahead of FSU who just beat us and WI.
And yeah, I know there's a good argument to be made on the head to head with PSU and WI but that's not necessarily how the rankings work at all. Things that happened in September are kinda forgotten at this point.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:39 PM ^
I think we have to pick those two teams.
Sure we can have other teams in the mix. But the point of the exercise was to address the whole 'National contender' and 'Beat OSU'
January 1st, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^
Long-term yes.
But you started your OP with, "I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda."
All of that frames the discussion as to whether this team underperformed. Not as to the question of whether we need more talent to compete with those programs long-term, which yes, we do. As one of the "disappointed negative people", who thinks our football was fine but our record underperformed, I'd probably be good with 11-2 with either a win over OSU or over FSU. That about fits the team. Maybe even just not losing to Iowa would be enough-- for this year to be a success. But 10-3, nope, that underperforms. And for this year, we will be behind some other schools in the final rankings besides just those 2 so for purposes of that conversation the other schools are relevant too.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:51 PM ^
Think about those numbers. Top 40ish so like ~39 more teams with more talent. So divide 40 by the Power5 conferences and there are like 8 teams per conference with as much talent as our offense? So our O talent is not just worse than OSU, PSU, and WI, but then also what Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Or pick 8 best ACC teams and youve got Clemson, Louisville, FSU but then VT, UNC, Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech.
Or think about the top 25 which has like Pitt, VTech, Navy, Temple etc. Like we aren't Alabama but we aren't scrubs either. If you look at a list of college football teams and start eyeing offensive talent we are probably in the 10 to 15 range. Alabama, OSU, Louisville due to Jackson, USC maybe, Oklahoma, maybe even PSU and FSU and LSU although those 3 are really just Barkley, Fournette and Cook. Maybe Washington. That's 9. But after that it's pretty hard to come up with teams with better talent on offense. Never mind the defensive talent.
6 of our 11 starters were 1st or 2nd coaches team all B1G. I am not seeing this dearth of talent that others are seeing. Yeah, not Alabama, agreed. But a lot of these posts are shortselling the talent on the roster.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:56 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:57 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:17 PM ^
We were better than OSU this year. We should have beat them on their field.
We lost by 1 pt to FSU on the raod without our two best players.
Harbaugh has shown the ability to go from getting the biggest of recruits (Gary) to identifying diamonds in the rough (Mettullus for a recent example).
Everything is excellent. I wish we werent so snake bitten this season but the future is very bright. No need to get existential about the program.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:18 PM ^
we were one play from likely making the playoff
January 1st, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:28 PM ^
I dunno WQ - I didn't see much in our games vs top teams that told me we would've beaten Bama or Clemson yesterday. Not even still having Rudock...
January 1st, 2017 at 11:58 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
50-50 chance M beats Clem in Sept-Oct, not Nov or Dec, and most def not Dec 31. We stopped improving after beating msu, in fact really getting steadily worse on O.
We would have lost by a very similar score as osu did I believe.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:47 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:22 PM ^
"Elite Playmakers"
This is the big difference.
Nobody on our offense scares anyone. Smith, Speight, Butt, etc - not one is going to have scary stats or big key plays against top 10 teams.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
Getting Existential IS the Michigan Difference!
January 1st, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^
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January 1st, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
I will repeat what i posted above:
We win that game with Peppers, but it wouldn't change the fact we were out-played & out-prepared. We would just not care that much.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:59 PM ^
If Peppers makes a shoestring tackle and stops Cook's big TD run and we win, nobody would be saying that we were out-played and out-prepared.
Francios looked awful under pressure and Cook was bottled up the whole second half. Their D played well, but so did ours. Their Special Teams were terrible except for the head fake at the end.
It was all very even except that they had Cook . . . and we did not have Peppers to stop him.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:46 AM ^
I respect your 102,202 Mgopoints and your opinions & sense of humor in general. Howeva -
Our OL was manhandled, no other way to put it or sugar-coat it. Their DL p'ownd our OL, right down to the very last play. Thus outplayed.
Fsu kept getting Cook singled on LBs, which likely would've been the case even if Peppers were playing (otherwise it would've been Metellus or Thomas covering him on routes) so out-prepared.
Yet still we win that game even if all Peppers did was return kicks. It would have been one of those wins you feel fortunate to escape with - a la nothing like our last bowl game.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:01 AM ^
From what I've heard, Peppers hurt himseld on the 29th. It's pretty hard to come up with a non-Peppers game plan in 24 hrs. If Peppers had hurt himself in Xmas camp in Ann Arbor, I'd give a little more credence to your 'out prepared' meme.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:21 AM ^
I detailed precisely what I meant by out-prepared. Peppers would have likely limited some of Cook's long runs, but I was referring specifically to getting Cook solo'd on our speed challenged LBs on pass routes. Can't happen. Yet did, numerous times.
Fsu game-planned a way to use motion to iso Cook on the LBs. That's exactly what I mean by out-prepared.
And because this is Michigan everyone focuses more on that than the fact I repeatedly say "Yet we win anyway if we have Peppers."
And what exactly is a "meme"? My middle schooler uses that term all the time, but cannot or will not explain what it means...