T-Rank Rankings since 02/07/2018 Nova vs. Michigan

Submitted by Indonacious on April 1st, 2018 at 10:38 AM

 

RK TEAM CONF G REC ADJOE ADJDE BARTHAG
1 Michigan 3 B10 14 14–0 122.1 84.3 .9781
2 Villanova 1 BE 16 13–3 129.0 91.7 .9706

Michigan: #1 Defense, #12 Offense (during this span)
Villanova: #15 Defense, #2 Offense

For all the talk about Nova being heavy favorites/unbeatable/largest spread since 2010, the rankings show it may not be that improbable. Since our northwestern loss, they have lost 3 times (while we of course haven't lost during that time). We have essentially equal efficiency rankings during that time. All it takes is one game...let's go! 

http://barttorvik.com/trankslice.php?year=2018&sort=&conlimit=All&begin…

Comments

BlueHills

April 1st, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

Go Blue. This team is not going to be afraid of anyone.

BTW, my buddy who wrote “One Shining Moment” is an A2 guy. He’ll be at the game, cheering on the Maize and Blue!

cletus318

April 1st, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

Nova is the best team in the country, and it just kicked a traditional power to sleep. There's always going to be extra hype that comes with that. It deserves to be a relatively heavy favorite over most any team at this juncture. That being said, Nova does become mortal when you can limit their threes, and Michigan is more than capable of doing so.

Mich fan in AZ

April 1st, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

Can Villanova shoot and make so many threes on our defense?

If yes, unless we have a phenomenal night on offense, they deserve to win. If not, we have a shot! Let's go! GO BLUE!!!

TrueBlue2003

April 1st, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^

I don't even think many were contested.  Not more than normal anyway.  Which is good news.  Exact same thing I said after the Houston game: it's encouraging that we were getting open threes.  We can make them.  And then we did against Texas A&M.

Villanova's perimeter defense is better than Texas A&M's but we don't need to score 99 and win by 27.  Probably just need to score about 75-78 to win by 1.

lebriarjr

April 1st, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^

Nova without a doubt is really good, they won’t shoot nearly as well on Monday. UofM is due for a excellent shooting game.

UofM 64

Nova 61

Anchew

April 1st, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

Our D is averaging an impressive 58.6 ppg against throughout the tourney. One of Novas losses was against a poor St John's squad that finished 16-17 on the season. Should be another nail biter but i believe our d prevails and we win!

G. Gulo of the Dale

April 1st, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^

... is certainly beatable, but they were also down two starters due to injury against St. John's, so that game isn't a great point of reference.  They've lost only two games when at full strength, both on the road.  But, yes, Michigan is better than all four of the teams--St. John's, Providence, Butler, Creighton--that beat Villanova.

Mich fan in AZ

April 1st, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^

What about their overtime win over Providence in the BET final? They didn't shoot too well in that game and they were at full strength. Could that game be used as a blueprint to beat them?

Providence didn't have a very strong offense at all per Kenpom, so if we can score as many buckets as we should and play defense like Providence did or better, I'm thinking we have a good chance. And their Torvik rating for that game was 95, their worst in postseason play so far but hardly their worst for the season.

ppudge

April 1st, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^

This reminds me a little of the 1993 Final Four game against Kentucky. Michigan had sleep-walked its way past a bunch of higher-seeds, having only to beat George Washington and Temple in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, which they did in unimpressive fashion. Kentucky, on the other hand, was steam-rolling everyone. No one gave us a chance. We ended up winning a classic - probably my 2nd favorite Fab 5 game of all-time, only behind the 1992 Elite 8 win over Ohio State to get us to the Final Four.

SeattleWolverine

April 1st, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^

I can see the similarity but I think that fundamentally those were different circumstances. That was a team with vastly more athleticism playing down to the level of the competition. They didn't even show up for that first half against UCLA in the round of 32 I think it was. Lack of intensity is a bit easier to turn on. Whereas this team is prone to cold shooting streaks. Anything can happen in one game, but I don't know that you can step up your perimeter shooting TAMU levels, which may be what is required to win, in the same way the 93 team was able to up their game. 

bacon1431

April 1st, 2018 at 5:08 PM ^

JB could save himself and his staff a lot of time watching tape by getting accurate reports from Jordan. So like yeah, duh, I’m sure JB could gather that information on his own. But if Jordan can give him the info, JB can spend more time devising a plan of attack and defense rather than spending some of that time trying to figure out the defense and offense of the opponent. It could be a big factor considering the amount of time between games.

bostonsix

April 1st, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^

and I'm not sure how kenpom works, but how good were the defenses Nova faced during the tournament compared to ours? Have they played a team similar to us at all this season?

Mich fan in AZ

April 1st, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^

The only team with a defense in our league that Nova has played in this entire stretch is Texas Tech. I didn't watch that game as I was driving home from LA, but I wonder what Tech's overall talent level is like against what we have. Keenan Evans was a stud and they did win at Kansas earlier this year, but I can't name anyone else off the top of my head on their roster.

bostonsix

April 1st, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

the preview button isn't working but heres the team stats of texas tech vs. villanova

 

Texas Tech    59                       Villanova      71

20-60 (33.3%)        FG              19-57 (33.3%) 

5-20  (25%)            3PT             4-24 (16.7%)

14-18(77.8%)         FT               29-35(82.9%)

6                          REB(OFF)             19

22                        REB(DEF)             31

7                          AST                       7

4                           ST                         6

1                          BLK                       4

9                          TO                       10

23                        F                           17

 

nova was held to just 33.3% shooting which could be a great indicator for our defense being able to do the same. The rebounds were lopsided in Nova's favor, that could be the key to beating them if we can make it a point to rebound better than them. 

 

 

 

 

 

Mich fan in AZ

April 1st, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

I notice too that Texas Tech gave up 24 three-point attempts out of 57 (about 42.1 percent), versus Kansas giving up 40 out of 65 (about 61.5 percent).

For our defense, 29.9 percent of the FGA's given up have been three-pointers. I think that percentage will rise a bit tomorrow, but we will probably be closer to giving up what Texas Tech did than Kansas. I agree on rebounding though, if we crash the boards well we have a good chance too.

cletus318

April 1st, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Texas Tech is right behind us in defensive efficiency, and it was a 5 point game at the under 4 timeout. TTU did a great job of not giving up open looks. The flipside of that was that it also shot poorly, although part of that was taking bad shots. Michigan's defense is good enough to make this a game, the question is whether the offense will be good enough to win it.

Mich fan in AZ

April 1st, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

They did also play Tennessee though, months ago, who played pretty good defense. In that case though, I think coaching is the difference. Rick Barnes does get good teams but they never seem to have as much success as their potential, unlike Beilein's, especially this year.

bronxblue

April 1st, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^

Nova is really good at basketball, but so is Michigan. Michigan has shown they can fire-bomb teams and stiffle them defensively as well. Michigan is and should be an underdog in this game. But Beilein is not going to be out-coaches in this game (as opposed to KU), and my guess is this will be a lot closer than expected.

wolverinestuckinEL

April 1st, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

My glass half full take from last night was that Nova didn't seem to close out well on shooters and we're a bit sloppy getting over/under screens. Hopefully that little extra space allows our guys to go off from deep.

RobM_24

April 1st, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^

Villanova is good, no doubt. However, we've got 3 wins that are better than any of their wins (MSUx2, and PU). The Kansas win is their best of the season, and it was an impressive win, but Kansas is just #9 on Kenpom (and #47 in adjusted defense). Our blowout of Purdue (Kenpom #5) in the B1G Championship is every bit as impressive. For them, I think this change in style is going to be similar to what we experienced going from A&M to FSU. We're not going to play up and down and leave shooters open all night. The question will be how well our offense executes against their #14 defense. I think this will be a B1G type game -- like Michigan vs some of the good Wisconsin teams or Purdue teams of recent years. Limited turnovers, good perimeter defense, long possessions, etc etc.. It's a style of game we can definitely have success in.

maquih

April 1st, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

"According to the documents, Dawkins has dinners listed with plenty of boldface names in the sport – Tom Izzo, “Villanova coaches,” Fultz and the family of wayward five-star prospect Mitchell Robinson."

MichiganExile

April 1st, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^

Not only is that non-specific about which coaches but it is perfectly legal to meet with agents. The list of Villanova players that took loans from the agency likely occurred AFTER their time at Villanova, which is also legal. I realize it would be a whole lot easier to make Nova a villain, but they have not been implicated as one of the bad guys... yet. Maybe we should give them the benefit of the doubt. 

MichiganTeacher

April 1st, 2018 at 9:22 PM ^

No one in college basketball deserves the benefit of the doubt. Or maybe I should say no one should be presumed innocent. The entire system from HS through D1 is filthy. And I'm not even mad at the players, coaches, et al. for playing the hand dealt them. The NCAA is to blame. But the point is, and it really cannot be overstated, that this is a case where guilt, such as it is, should be the default assumption.

MichiganExile

April 1st, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

Again, it is not illegal for coaches to meet with agents. The documents do not reveal shuttling of funds to Villanova or its players. There are three names of former players (all gone from Nova since at the latest 2011) listed as outstanding balances on an expense report for an agency that represents those players. It seems way more likely those are expenses related to their professional careers given the timing of the expense report.

jmblue

April 1st, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^

They aren't saying it for the benefit of hardcore Michigan fans watching.  They say it for the casual viewer who doesn't know, just like how they point out every broadcast that John Beilein has never been an assistant coach.