Is sugar bowl a (basically) a done deal?

Submitted by NeilGoBlue on November 26th, 2011 at 9:47 PM
I'm driving back from game and have limited access.

What are people saying?

Comments

FreddieMercuryHayes

November 26th, 2011 at 9:49 PM ^

Not quite yet.  We have to move up one more spot, and it's not looking like anybody we need to lose is gonna lose today, so we'll have to wait till next week.  I think that between Okie St/ OU, MSU/UW, and LSU/UGa, we'll get one team we need to lose, so we'll probably make it.

OneScaryUnit

November 26th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^

yea, i think michigan will be as low as 17 in the ranking all depends on how the Clemson finishes. If Clemson win, where will Michigan/S.Car/Clem rank?

So, with everyone talking about Michigan going to the Suger, what about if they dont make it? how come nobody comment on that. Capital One? vs Georgia/ Arkans? 

orobs

November 26th, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^

I doubt clemson jumps michigan if they win. 

 

However, if they go on to beat Va Tech, I could see them jumping michigan (which would end up the same outcome as clemson losing tonight anyways).

 

 

If michigan doesn't play a bcs game, they will probably play arkansas in the capital one bowl.

KP74

November 26th, 2011 at 9:51 PM ^

We need to move up to top 14 (we are 15 right now), which should not be a problem with all the conference championship games left.  And then yes we are a very attractive at large team.  It is looking good, but as always not a done deal.

Muttley

November 26th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^

so a Wiscy loss won't help.  Also, I'd expect Wiscy to jump us w/ a win over Sparty. Either way, we'll be behind the B1G champ game winner & ahead of the B1G champ game loser.

Possibilities (some extremely unlikely, but still possible)

 

13

Georgia

10-2

L vs LSU next week & falls

12

South Carolina

9-2

L vs Clem (up 14 start of 4th qtr)

& Clemson does not jump us

Ensured w/ Clem L

in ACC championship game

11

Kansas State

9-2

L vs Iowa State next week

10

Oregon

10-2

L vs  6-5 UCLA next week

9

Oklahoma

9-2

L vs #4 Oklahoma St next wk

8

Houston

12-0

L vs 10-2 S. Miss

in ConfUSA championship game

7

Boise State

10-1

L vs 1-10 New Mexico next week

obviously, extremely unlikely

unless Boise forgets to show up (literally)

5

Virginia Tech

11-1

Blowout L vs Clem in ACC champ game

(despite ranking, VT hasn't beaten anybody of note)

 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 26th, 2011 at 10:50 PM ^

Only thing stopping them from taking an SEC team would be the 2-team limit.  What the rule says that (I think) you're referring to is that, say LSU were playing Oklahoma in the championship game, the Sugar couldn't take a Big 12 team unless the Fiesta (the Big 12 affiliate bowl) consented.  Not that they can't take a team from their own conference affiliation - in fact, the rule is there to protect their ability to do so.

AAB

November 26th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^

but LSU and Alabama will still be in the championship game.  Conference can get 3 teams if neither of the two teams in the national championship game are not the conference champion (which sounds insane, but could actually happen if Georgia beats LSU).  

mblood7

November 26th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^

Wow didn't reallythink of that scenerio. I for one hope there is no rematch! If Michigan didn't get one in 06 why would Alabama get one this year? I think Alabama is the better team, but they had their shot give the Big 12 winner a shot or God forbid Houston and 12th year QB Chase Keenum.

Wolverine Incognito

November 26th, 2011 at 10:01 PM ^

If Georgia wins the SEC Championship, and LSU and Bama are 1-2, then the SEC could get 3 teams.

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

 

I don't know how to do block quotes, but that is from the BCS website. 

Jorel

November 26th, 2011 at 10:04 PM ^

We'll finsih in the top 14.  No question.

Sugar will get first choice of teams, and we'll likely be it.  Crazy.  Only way I can see it going any other way is if Oklahoma State loses to OU on some fluke and somehow seems like a more attractive opponent for Houston, which the Sugar Bowl will almost assuredly take with its second selection.  No way Stanford is a team that they want given the likely opponent.

orobs

November 26th, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^

How is it "no question"

 

other than the MSU/Wisc game (the winner of which will be ranked higher) there only scenario I see getting us in the BCS is:

 

Georgia MUST lose

 

There is no scenario I see that has Georgia winning and michigan getting picked as the only at large team above Andrew Luck and Stanford.  You are seriously underestimating the Luck effect.

Jorel

November 26th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^

... everything is out the window, but not because Michigan doesn;t finsih in the top 14 of the BCS rankings.  Michigan is likely out no matter whether it is in the top 14 or not.  My "no question" comment was about whether or not we finish in the top 14 in a scenario that matters.

I don't see LSU losing to Georgia, but if it does, and LSU/Bama finish 1/2, which they likely still would - a) LSU still has a beter resume than any other 1-loss team, and b) voters wouldn not want to give Bama a benefit for losing to LSU at home - there will be three SEC teams in BCS bowls (UGA still gets the Sugar) and, with Houston a likely AQ, only one at large bid left, which the Fiesta would get to select, and I agree with you that it would most likely be Stanford. 

 

Hugh Jass

November 26th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^

that Wiscomsin is going to jump Michigan - that will put both 
Sparty and Wisky ahead of us.  The loser of that game will only move us back up to 15 again.  We must have Georgia lose - also would like Okie state to beat the sooners.  Possibly Iowa State beating Kansas State next week as well.  Those are the scenarios that will make the BCS happen.