Steve Wiltfong crystal balls in-state LB Lance Dixon to Penn State

Submitted by Bluey on June 7th, 2018 at 10:46 AM

Harbaugh's in-state recruiting woes continue. Dixon is #252 in the composite but #72 overall in the 247 rankings. After missing on Willie Gay in 2017 and Otis Reese in 2018, Dixon would mark the third straight year UM has missed on their top Viper target if he does indeed commit to PSU. It would also mark the fourth top 5 player in MI to commit somewhere other than Ann Arbor. To make matters worse, his head coach at West Bloomfield is an alumnus and defensive coordinator is a UM fan, along with his dad. If someone told me this would be happening in year 4 of Harbaugh when he was hired, I would have laughed in their face. 

Comments

SMart WolveFan

June 7th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

According to the 247 composite data, before Harbaugh got there, UofM was 0 for the last 9 on state of Mi recruits rated higher than .97 stretching back to '06, (Harbaugh is 1 for 1 currently) and even from 2000 to '06, they were just 7 out of 13, just over 50%.

Harbaugh has had 18 Mi recruits in 4 years, the four previous had: 26, four before that: 18, before: 21; realistically, it you need to look before 1999 to find many real dominant stretches in Mi for UofM.

Seemingly, the trend is that the state recruits go through cycles in which they cool on UofM, especially during transition years ('09,'10,'14,'15,'16 had 4 or less commits from the state).

But even if you want to play the "top 3" game:

From 2000-2014: 

#1s: 8/15

#2s: 7/15

#3s: 7/15

Harbaugh is:

#1s: 3/4 (including 2 in a row for the first time '05 -'06)

#2s: 1/4

3#s: 2/4

Plus there's only 2 years since 2000 they got the top 3 in one year.... and yeah......guess who did it once?

Bluey

June 7th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^

I have no idea what you are trying to prove here. Convenient your numbers stop at 2006 because everyone already knows Rich Rod got his ass kicked by Dantonio on in state recruiting. Brady Hoke cleaned up in state but missed on a couple top players a few times (McDowell, Burbridge, Damon Webb, etc). That's ok and to be expected, you can't get everyone, but it's important to get most. Harbaugh comes in and in his first two years does a fantastic job at getting who he wants. A large part of that was due to Tyrone Wheatley who is no longer here. But none of that has any bearing on what is happening THIS YEAR. So yes, everyone agrees that our $7 million dollar coach did a great job with his first two classes. He's doing a bad job this year in state, and that can't be argued, no matter how many numbers you want to throw out.

Goldmember2

June 7th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^

There's going to be year to year variance in how many recruits we get in state.  The poster is showing you the track record.  Clearly the staff values in state recruits and they're doing a better job then previous regimes at collecting in state talent.  BTW, it's just a crystal ball.  The kid hasn't committed yet.  Lots of run way left.  Michigan is off to a strong start with this class.  Let's see how it all plays out.

GRMaizenBlue

June 7th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

Does it really matter at the end of the day? Harbaugh has been able to successfully recruit nationally for the first time in our school's history. We have wiffed on some great recruits all over the place but he is still bringing in some great classes. Do I want to see more players from Michigan come here? Of course. But it doesn't necessarily mean hes doing a poor job recruiting. Just focusing attention elsewhere.

Kevin13

June 7th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

Settle down there Beavis..... He's brining in a great 2019 class right now that has a chance to be top 5 when it's all said and done. Sure you want to keep top talent home, but sometimes that top talent wants to leave the state. As long as we are getting top players to fill the needs we are fine. They will find a very good viper for the 2019 class before it is all said and done.

tomer

June 7th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^

See, you weaken your stance with every post.

This isn't a banner year for in state recruiting, no one is arguing that. What they are arguing is that it is more responsible to look at a trend instead of a one year data point.

You are just being an ass by changing your argument ever so slightly each time someone offers you a reasoned rebuttal.

Champeen

June 7th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

If in-state recruiting rankings mattered, Beilein would have been out of a job years and years ago.  The key is to find good, solid coachable players who fit your scheme.

If your going to star-gaze in-state players who commit elsewhere then write your negative opinion on it as gospel here, please go post elsewhere because all your going to do is drive the community here away to other sites (unless that is your goal).

And if you keep doing it, this site needs to ban you, are at least put in place a rule that if your at so much negative points, you cannot start a new post or even post period - only read.

SMart WolveFan

June 7th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

Except one thing there, TrollFat, my data goes back to 2000 and even Carr was barely over 50% of signing .97 + ranked players. The '06 data was UofM was 0 for the last 9 in high ranked recruits before Harbaugh broke that losing streak.

But, if the '16 class was "great" but it only had THREE state of Mi players!; why can't the '19 class be "great" unless we get all the top Mi players?

What you are comparing makes no sense.

Not to mention, the ball is in a couple days before his PSU visit so Dixon might secure a spot if it's committable.

 

 

JonnyHintz

June 7th, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^

The issue is, MSU NEEDS to do well in-state. MSU has to hit the state hard, pick up the kids in Ohio that OSU doesn’t want, and then grab some under the radar guys.

Michigan is a national brand. Michigan is able to go out and recruit out of region guys, so getting in-State recruits isn’t as much of a necessity 

BigBlue02

June 7th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

Are you so concerned Bluey? I mean, I’m super concerned and you are too. Let’s tell everyone how concerned they should be.

hey mods, does this new site have a ban function. Bluey and Maizen and all his other shitposting identities need to be banned. His response that he is just telling the truth and everyone who disagrees with him just doesn’t like their safe space infringed upon is imminent 

maize-blue

June 7th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

PSU blew out Michigan last season so I'm not suprised they lead. Win a few big games this season and I'm sure there will be someone in the country that they will be able to recruit.

Catchafire

June 7th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^

What I  hate is that we blew PSU out the year before that...  But beating OSU, winning the BIG championship, getting crapped over for a playoff run, and losing to USC does wonders for a program I guess.

 

And they did have a fun offense last year.  Seeing Saquon Barkley shred people and wail his arms in circular motions after he scored a TD is great fun, great appeal.

Alumnus93

June 7th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

I hope you realize that constantly drawing attention to this, is what actually fuels the perception, and then it truly becomes reality...    Speaking of which, didn't we land some studs at LB?  Maybe the kid wants to get playing time.   And lets not forget what it was like when this new perception didn't exist.... and that when a guy went elsewhere, then it was assumed that there were grade or character issues.  Now the reflex is, "he cannot recruit instate"

mgowill

June 7th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^

I don't understand why you are really concerned over the viper spot.  The viper spot is filled by someone 6'-0" to 6'-2" tall and around 205 lbs.  I can think of quite a few human beings who seem to fit that mold in the 2018 class.  We should be fine.