The State Of Our Open Threads: After Cincinnati

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on September 10th, 2017 at 8:50 AM

So, the gist of yesterday's postgame discussion is, yeah, we have a few things to work on obviously.

Our stress was rather apparent yesterday, and many of us - those of us who watched in person and those at home - weren't exactly shy in expressing that stress somehow.

Let's go over the overall numbers first though - in terms of overall instances, we actually beat last week's performance by about 60, moving up to 705 overall instances of tracked works across 2,176 total board posts in the two open threads. This makes for an overall efficiency rating of 3.09, which is also up slightly from last week and reflective of histoical data on wins that we found less than fulfilling (and I found this one less than fulfilling). 

Strange as it may seem, however, the number of fucks given fell slightly from last week, from 250 to 218, but there was a sharp increase in shits given, from 86 to 120. That's actually one of the largest week-over-week increases in shits that we've ever had on a percentage basis, but then those of you - like me - who were sitting in the stadium probably thought it would be even larger than that. 

We talked about the game against Florida being a highly fuck-driven game from a statistical standpoint, and as you'll undoubtedly recall, I mentioned that the R-squared value for "fuck" with respect to the overall page totals was about 0.95. The week, the correlation is weaker, but that can be explained by a few factors, including:

1) A large increase in mentions of "Harbaugh". I track his name in this analysis, and it came up a lot in posts about game theory and clock management and, of course, Speight.

2) As mentioned, the increase in "shit", both here and on the field yesterday. 

3) More liberal use of the word "damn" as well, which, well, yeah...

This leads us to the plot below. The primary axis (left) is overall instances per page, whereas the the secondary axis (right) highlights the relationship of that blue overall curve to "fuck" (orange) and "shit" (gray). Across seven pages, assume that each one represents, on average, about eight minutes or so of regulation play or just under a half hour of airtime if you were watching at home. It looks like this:

InstancesByPageCincy

See the explanation above for reading this - squeezing labels on this thing would make it an even more painful read for those of us with aging eyes.

If this fairly representative of how uneasy we were about yesterday's performance, then we've done a good job with the analysis, I think. As for myself, my stress definitely ramped up in the second quarter and didn't really ease until the very end, as seen here, so if nothing else, I concur with this result.

R-squard for "fuck" fell this week to 0.888, which is still quite high, but again, not as strong as last week's relationship. The R-squared for "shit" was 0.894, so this was a game driven as much by shit as it was by fuck, and perhaps just not figuratively. 

So, we'll see how it goes with Air Force. 

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