It's Always Marcia

October 14th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

State has a strange defense this year. #1 against the run, and #118 against the pass. I think Michigan is going to go rush heavy against them anyway. I just can't imagine Michigan is going to let this one slip away.


Another oddity, Ohio St's defense is ranked #59 against the pass. Hoping for a big show down at Ohio St!


October 14th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^

Penn State's actual S&P+ rating dropped from 21.8 to 17.5  That's 4.3, which is significant.

Rank, of course, is relative.  It's dependent on what all the other teams around you do to. 

PSU stayed at #7 because the 6 teams ahead of them prior stayed ahead, while 5 of the 6 teams that were immediately behind them (ND, UCF, Washington, WVU, Wisconsin) had less-than-great statistical performances that weren't going to raise their own rating.

IMO, the crop of teams from #10-#20 this year are less inspiring then they are in most years.


October 14th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

I will be interested to see Bill C's win probabilities for that game. I didn't watch it but looking at the box score, it appeared to be a game that nobody deserved to win. 

Edit: lol just as expected, MSU had a 26% win probability according to Bill C. Hopefully they have used up the good luck for this season. 


October 14th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^

Man, UW’s offense went UP to 5 from 8 after that game.  Looks like MSUs D improved now 21st in country.  ND defense is 4.  Will be the toughest test for the offense since the opening weekend against State.  Has me worried.  Shea’s performance through the air against a below average UW defense was troubling.  


October 14th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

We're only sending three receivers out for routes most of the time while keeping Higdon AND McKeon back for extra pass-pro. That's why our O-line is "protecting" better. We actually have seven guys blocking for Shea, not five. The tradeoff is the three receivers going for routes are being bracketed by two-high safety zone looks. It takes a looooong time for those three to break free of anything in that situation. Perry is absent because the Tide-ends have taken over nearly all his snaps. 


October 14th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^

I mean, but that’s the problem.  On both of those drives Patterson cost the team points by bailing on clean pockets, first, and second not throwing the ball.  At least one he definitely had a guy open downfield if he puts it over the outside shoulder, instead he bailed and got a huge loss.  It’s tough to say how much is on WR and play calling, but at this point the bailing on pockets is a trend that hope a more often than not no matter how good the opposing defense is.


October 14th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^

I’m all for scrambling when you can do something with it.  I’m just concerned that UW us a worse defense than Maryland AND it was super beat up and still couldn’t find WR open even though not getting a ton of pressure.  It could be WR and coaching/playcalling, but either way, the fact that they could find people open downfield consistently is troubling.  And it’s been happening all year and we’re halfway through the season.


October 14th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

Wiscy was often dropping 7 in zone coverage. Wasn't about getting "separation".  It's about finding seams.  Say what you want, but Wisconsins defense is well coached. Yesterday was more about W's D than M's recievers. Love what Michigan did through game and took advantage of what W was doing with RPO and running.


October 14th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

Good adjustments ... UW takes away the pass, then beat them with the run.  We now can do both which we couldn't last year ... if they had loaded the box to take away the run, we would have beat them just as bad with the pass.  We are ascending to a complete team.  Still more wood to chop ... and speaking of which, its time to get Paul back in the house.  Go Blue !!!


October 14th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

I think it's overstating the issue that he "bails" on clean pockets more than a lot of guys.  What seems clean to someone on the sideline may not feel clean on the field, and what guys see is different than what is seen by the QB.  He may not see a WR open, may be waiting for a guy to break a certain way, or just mis-reads the defense.  It does happen; Wisconsin doesn't have a great defense, but they aren't bad and I'm sure they played with some coverages.  But I remember guys like Gardner and the slew of QBs last year, and that's my barometer for "bailing".  Patterson sat in the pocket a lot of times and trusted his protection pretty frequently, especially as the game progressed.  It wasn't his best game, but a guy with an 80%-ish DSR isn't a guy I'm worried about consistently missing throws downfield.


October 14th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

This list doesn't pass the eye test.  Oklahoma at #3?  They haven't beaten anyone and have struggled against two bad teams.  Penn St still at 7 with two losses?  UCF that high despite beating no one?  Really doesn't make sense.


October 14th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^

S&P+ is not a descriptive metric.  It’s not meant to say how well a team played.  It’s an algorithm that measures factors that are most closely predictive of winning games, then plugs those in and gives you a number.  So although Oklahoma hasn’t always looked the # 3 team in the nation, the are doing something very well that usuallu translates into winning games.  You can go to football study hall and it breaks down the components to the algorithm.  FEI is another good advanced stat that measures some different thing on a per drive basis.