S&P+ Ratings Update, Wk. 13

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

I just finished poking around the S&P+ ratings, and here's a quick rundown similar to what I've been consolidating for the FPI Efficiency posts over the last several weeks. As with the FPI efficiency ratings, M is still ranked above OSU. No surprise there I type as I gnash my teeth.

The main reason I decided to regurgitate this is because one number jumped out to me. It's the 2nd-order wins differential number for OSU, which is -2.0. What this means is that based solely on the Buckeyes' accrued statistics, they would be expected to win 2 fewer games that their record indicates. This is in large part a measure of the luck that has accrued to a team, and to it's benefit OSU has the largest negative 2nd-order wins differential of the top 50 teams in the ratings. Just for comparison, note that MSU's 2ndO Win Diff for this year is +2.0 (and last year MSU was -2.2).

M has the 2nd largest positive 2ndO Win Diff in the top ten at 0.6, which is the same number as last year.

As you may also aware be aware, OSU has been the beneficiary of an exhorbitant amount of Turnover Luck. This happens to be the only one of  Bill Connelly's Five Factors that has a predominantly random element embedded in it. OSU is ranked #3 in that category, to the tune of an added benefit of 5.2 points per game. Poking further into OSU's Advanced Stats Profile, another couple of numbers jump out. They are 17% and 17%. These are the win expectancies based on OSU's statistical performance in its last two games, both of which would expected to be losses by at least a touchdown. By inference of course, you know what that means regarding M's last game...

So, I'll just end this now.

Team
Rec.
2ndO W
(Diff)
S&P+
(%)
S&P+
(Pts)
Rk
Off.
S&P+
Rk
Def.
S&P+
Rk
ST
S&P+
Rk
Alabama 12-0 11.4 (-0.6) 99.8% 34.3 1 39.9 7 5.8 2 0.3 56
Michigan 10-2 10.6 (0.6) 99.5% 31.3 2 36.1 28 5.1 1 0.3 55
Ohio State 11-1 9.0 (-2.0) 98.0% 25.3 3 38.0 20 14.2 5 1.5 6
Clemson 11-1 10.5 (-0.5) 97.9% 25.0 4 39.7 8 14.3 6 -0.4 77
LSU 7-4 8.2 (1.2) 97.3% 23.8 5 37.2 24 13.8 4 0.4 51
Washington 11-1 10.5 (-0.5) 96.4% 22.3 6 40.7 4 18.6 12 0.1 61
Louisville 9-3 9.6 (0.6) 95.8% 21.4 7 42.0 3 20.0 15 -0.6 88
USC 9-3 9.0 (0.0) 94.4% 19.8 8 38.3 19 19.9 14 1.4 16
Florida State 9-3 9.2 (0.2) 94.2% 19.5 9 40.4 6 21.0 18 0.1 60
Wisconsin 10-2 9.5 (-0.5) 93.9% 19.2 10 31.0 54 12.6 3 0.8 34
Penn State 10-2 9.2 (-0.8) 93.5% 18.9 11 35.7 30 18.3 11 1.5 10
Colorado 10-2 9.2 (-0.8) 89.4% 15.7 15 34.8 34 18.1 10 -1.0 100
Iowa 8-4 8.0 (0.0) 80.8% 11.2 22 29.6 67 19.0 13 0.6 40
Western Michigan 12-0 10.6 (-1.4) 78.3% 10.1 29 39.7 9 29.0 59 -0.5 83
Indiana 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 56.1% 2.6 55 28.5 72 24.9 37 -1.0 101
Michigan State 3-9 5.0 (2.0) 48.8% 0.4 63 27.8 75 27.8 48 0.4 43
Central Florida 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 47.8% 0.1 65 22.1 109 23.3 26 1.4 15
Eastern Michigan 7-5 6.1 (-0.9) 36.8% -3.2 80 31.0 55 34.5 98 0.3 52
Central Michigan 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 28.1% -6.1 89 27.1 79 31.6 81 -1.6 127
Maryland 6-6 5.3 (-0.7) 22.9% -8.0 97 25.5 87 32.3 85 -1.2 109
Hawaii 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 21.9% -8.5 100 26.4 85 36.3 110 1.4 13
Illinois 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 17.9% -10.1 105 19.9 119 30.3 72 0.2 58
Rutgers 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 6.5% -17.2 124 14.7 127 30.4 73 -1.5 122

 

MGoBoard
Football
Advanced Stats
S&P+
Bill Connelly

newtopos

November 28th, 2016 at 3:54 PM ^

I appreciate you pulling this together and posting it. 

It does confirm that we are one of the four best teams in the country. 

So easily could have been 11-1 or 12-0.

Joined: 09/26/2009

MGoPoints: 3434

LSAClassOf2000

November 28th, 2016 at 5:58 PM ^

Lost in all the teeth gnashing are quality statistical posts like these which confirm that - by the metrics that actually tell people things - we are one of the best in the country at, well, a lot of things - technical term, I know. 

Thanks for putting these together. At least for me, this is the stuff I pay particular attention to when it comes to gauging where we are so I do appreciate them.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130603