Here's the next installation of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup between UM & Wisconsin. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the column at the left. To the right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category. The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road...
The "M Offense vs. UW Defense" column averages those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the Wisconsin defense. Likewise, the "UW Offense vs. M Defense" averages the other two to gauge the performance of the Wisconsin Offense. From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.
Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears the matchups tilt in M's favor in all four of the non-turnover Five Factors. Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in all but four sub-categories, as follows:
- Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness, measured as pts. scored per successful rushing plays)
- Power Success Rate (percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown)
- SD IsoPPP (pts. per successful standard down), and the same as against Colorado & PSU...
- PD Line Yards per Carry (bonus yards gained by running on passing downs...a.k.a. breaking contain!). As with the Buffs & PSU, gap integrity is going to be an important discipline for Wolverines success against the Badgers.
The IsoPPP advantage of Wisconsin in both the standard downs and rushing plays will mean the UM must continue to make improvements defensively in order to contain explosive plays, particularly on Standard Downs, which is a weakness of the UM Defense. It's apparent that the most likely means to Wisconsin success against the Wolverines will be through the explosive plays.
In general, however, I would say this matchup looks more promising than I'd expected just based on the what little I've seen of Wisconsin's play and other standard statistics.
|FIVE FACTORS||M Off.||M Def.||UW Off.||UW Def.||
M Off v
UW Off v
3) FIELD POSITION:
4) FINISHING DRIVES:
Pts./Trip in 40
5) T/O MARGIN:
T/O Luck (PPG)
|Rushing Success Rate||44.7%||18.4%||40.8%||30.3%||41.0%||37.5%||29.6%|
|Power Success Rate||87.5%||61.5%||61.9%||33.3%||69.0%||60.4%||61.7%|
|Passing Success Rate||44.7%||23.1%||48.2%||30.9%||40.2%||37.8%||35.7%|
|SD Success Rate||47.5%||25.4%||45.8%||34.6%||45.8%||41.1%||35.6%|
|SD Line Yds/Carry||3.25||1.43||3.16||2.58||2.96||2.92||2.30|
|SD Sack Rate||3.6%||16.7%||3.4%||2.3%||4.7%||3.0%||10.1%|
|PD Success Rate||37.5%||14.9%||39.2%||23.8%||30.3%||30.7%||27.1%|
|PD Line Yds/Carry||2.76||2.49||2.02||1.18||3.4||1.97||2.26|
|PD Sack Rate||3.3%||17.1%||7.6%||9.8%||8.0%||6.6%||12.4%|