S&P+ Five Factors Matchup: UM vs. Florida State (Orange Bowl)

Submitted by Ecky Pting on December 16th, 2016 at 5:08 PM

Here's this season's final installment of Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics matchup for  UM & Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

The "M Offense vs. FSU Defense" column gauges the performance of the UM offense against the Florida State defense by either taking the product (if inversely proportional) or the ratio (if not inversely related) between those two metrics. The results are then re-scaled to the national average by dividing by (or multiplying by) the national average, respectively. Likewise, the "FSU Offense vs. M Defense" computes the other two metrics to gauge the performance of the Florida State Offense.

From there, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description. With these metrics, a lower value is better.

Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and as such it appears that  all four of non-random Factors matchups tilt in M's favor. UM's advantages in the four factors are all quite significant. UM shows better than 5 point difference in Success Rate, more than 9 yards in Field Position, and 1.77 points per trip inside the 40 y/l. FSU shows an advantage only in Turnovers, to the tune of just under 3 points per game. FSU, much like Ohio State, has been way luckier than M this season.

Breaking it down further, UM has the advantage in the vast majority of sub-categories and all of the S&P+ aggregrate metrics. FSU, however, shows a particular advantage in two Rushing-related sub-categories. They are:

  1. Rushing Success Rate (50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down). Otherwise known as staying ahead of the chains, the FSU offense is relatively effective at this, and is ranked #11 in the country. It's defense is not too shabby in this metric either, ranked #20. The only unit in The Game that is not in the top twenty is the UM offense, ranked #57, and that is the principal difference here.
  2. PD Line Yards (a metric to gauge OL blocking effectiveness, when running on passing downs). The FSU offense is respectable at this (#18), but the UM defense is better (#10). The FSU defense is a  middling #60, but the UM offense is terrible (#114), and that tilts this metric. Running draw plays when behind the sticks is probably not going to be a good idea.
FIVE FACTORS M
Off
M
Def
FSU
Off
FSU
Def
Nat'l
Avg.
M Off v
FSU Def
FSU Off
v M  Def
1) EXPLOSIVENESS:
IsoPPP 
1.26 1.09 1.30 1.36 1.27 1.35 1.12
2) EFFICIENCY:
Success Rate 
44.0% 29.4% 48.4% 37.3% 40.9% 40.1% 34.8%
3) FIELD POSITION:
Avg. FP 
35.8 26.9 29.4 29.6 29.70 35.68 26.63
4) FINISHING DRIVES
Pts./Trip in 40 
5.07 2.78 4.8 4.19 4.46 4.76 2.99
5) T/O MARGIN:
T/O Luck (PPG)
  1.03   3.95   -2.92 2.92
RUSHING              
Rushing S&P+ 108.5 135.6 130.8 111.7 100.0 97.1 96.5
Rushing Success % 44.2% 33.5% 50.2% 37.0% 43.1% 37.9% 39.0%
Rushing IsoPPP  1.05 0.98 1.18 1.15 1.08 1.12 1.07
Adj. Line Yards 106.3 135.1 119.1 102.2 100.0 104.0 88.2
Opportunity % 38.7% 31.7% 43.2% 37.8% 39.8% 36.8% 34.4%
Power Success % 71.4% 58.3% 79.5% 65.5% 68.0% 68.8% 68.2%
Stuff % * 18.4% 26.7% 17.8% 19.0% 18.7% 18.7% 25.4%
PASSING              
Passing S&P+ 126.6 177.1 120.4 113.4 100.0 111.6 68.0
Passing Success % 43.6% 24.8% 46.7% 37.6% 40.9% 40.1% 28.3%
Passing IsoPPP  1.55 1.26 1.43 1.53 1.49 1.59 1.21
Adj. Sack Rate  132.9 201.2 93.0 187.4 100.0 70.9 46.2
STANDARD DOWNS              
SD S&P+ 113.9 148.7 117.4 114.9 100.0 99.1 79.0
SD Success % 48.5% 34.2% 51.0% 41.7% 47.3% 42.8% 36.9%
SD IsoPPP  1.1 0.97 1.24 1.21 1.12 1.19 1.07
SD Line Yds/Carry  3.04 2.17 3.07 2.88 3.00 2.92 2.22
SD Sack Rate * 3.0% 11.5% 5.9% 7.6% 5.0% 4.6% 13.6%
PASSING DOWNS              
PD S&P+ 119.4 154.2 147.7 105.9 100.0 112.7 95.8
PD Success % 32.1% 21.9% 42.3% 29.3% 30.3% 31.0% 30.6%
PD IsoPPP  1.91 1.37 1.49 1.76 1.74 1.93 1.17
PD Line Yds/Carry  2.62 2.42 3.85 3.15 3.40 2.43 2.74
PD Sack % * 8.5% 16.2% 10.3% 14.8% 8.0% 15.7% 20.9%

 

Comments

LSAClassOf2000

December 16th, 2016 at 5:54 PM ^

Here's how TeamRankings stacks it up....

Offense Michigan Florida St.
Yards/Play 5.9 6.3
Points/Play 0.554 0.443
Rush Play % 60.59% 53.41%
Pass Play % 39.41% 46.59%
Completion % 62.35% 58.22%
3D Conv % 44.17% 43.45%
RZ Scoring % 90.62% 96.08%
Defense Michigan Florida St.
Opp Yards/Play 3.8 5.2
Opp Points/Play 0.19 0.37
Opp Completion % 44.52% 56.65%
Opp 3D Conv % 20.86% 35.14%
Opp RZ Scoring % 68.00% 78.05%

 

ijohnb

December 16th, 2016 at 9:48 PM ^

is not the way this game is going down. FSU is a strong, proud program. This will be a hard fought game. Don't set yourself up to be pissed when it's not an "utter blowout." People are extracting too much from the Florida game for this game. FSU kicks the shit out of Florida on the regular. This will be a pretty even matchup.

Walter Sobchak

December 17th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^

We are all going to be really pissed off when OSU wins it all.

We were the better team and blew it, refs not withstanding.

Yeah, I'm still bitter.

But, we should beat FSU if we play well.