Some Interesting Bracketology Updates
Both CBS and ESPN have had updates to their projected brackets (CBS updated this morning, ESPN updated yesterday before our game against Maryland) and there are certainly some interesting tidbits:
- Jerry Palm with CBS has us as the top #2 seed, in Virginia's region (East Regional). We'd have a first round match-up with South Dakota State in Des Moines. While I don't mind playing in Des Moines, I gotta think a lot of South Dakota State fans would travel to Des Moines to see Mike Daum, their all-time leading scorer, play one last time. I'd like to avoid this match-up if possible. The second round match-up would be against the winner of Louisville (again?!) and Oklahoma.
- Palm has dropped MSU to a 3 seed (in fact the lowest 3 seed). They'd draw a match-up against Hofstra, with a second-round potential match-up with the winner of Buffalo & TCU. Other games of note: Ohio State would get a first round match-up with Nova. Syracuse vs. St. John's has the potential to be a great game!
- Over at ESPN, Lunardi has us as the #2 seed in the West (I wouldn't mind some games in California again after last year's attendance!). We'd face Montana again in the first round in Des Moines and await the winner of Auburn & NC State. An interesting potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with either Kansas or Villanova (or I suppose Utah State, if they could pull an upset or two). MSU would be the #2 seed in the East and play Loyola in the first round (Go Sister Jean!) with a potential rematch with Louisville in the second round (or they'd play Oklahoma).
- Other interesting games of note: Wisconsin vs. Vermont could be interesting. The Catamounts are always a tough match-up. Ohio State would draw Wofford, who may think is this year's Cinderella team. A potential second-round game between Marquette and Nevada? Yes please!
Anywho, here are the links to each bracket, anybody see anything else interesting?
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
We have a massive game on Saturday and the Big Ten tournament. Every team in college basketball has multiple games remaining. It is just good to know that we are going to get an excellent seed regardless of how things shake out. I have a prediction for you: The actual bracket will be remarkably different from any prediction from anyone now or even from anyone the day before the tournament.
Oh, I'm well aware the bracket will likely look very different. I just always think it's fun to look at this stuff and potential match-up's but agreed, it will look very different.
Curious though, if either of these brackets were to be 'the one'. Would you have a preference? I actually think, all things considered, I'd prefer ESPN and Lunardi's bracket. I worry what our offense would look like against Virginia. Also, I think Houston would be out for blood after last year's game.
All I know is, if we're not a 1 seed, I want to be in Gonzaga's bracket.
I know that Gonzaga is viewed as the worst 1 seed, but I'm not sure that matchup is favorable. They got some height and there's a strong chance they'd get Teske in foul trouble. If so, I think we would no longer be able to drive to the hoop and we'd be relying on shooting the three to advance.
We’d run them right out of the (&:&;)?:& gym!
I doubt that. Their tempo is impressive regardless of competition and they simply don’t stop.
Now their defense is suspect, and Few has masked that by increasing possessions.
I actually think Virginia is the best matchup for us. Gonzaga's offense is too good and I don't trust our offense to keep up. More comfortable in a low scoring game.
Location wise, I think Anaheim and DC are the most favorable for us.
TB9, totally fair points. part of the fun is the speculation. I would prefer to be in the palm bracket. I think Virginia has shown the ability to collapse in a tournament many times over. I would rather be in a bracket with them as opposed to Duke or Gonzaga.
The women's team is projected as a #8 seed playing BYU. The #1 seed in their bracket is Louisville. Knowing how good the #1 & #2 seeds are in women's basketball, it'd be huge to move up to #6 seed if they could win a few games in the B1G tourney.
Agreed! I think if we can even get to the 7/10 match-up, I'd prefer that over an 8/9. On a positive note on this bracket, MSU would have a potential 2nd round matchup with Notre Dame in South Bend lol That would be a slaughter house.....
great point - we had to go to baylor last year, and, while we hung with them for a while, they were clearly a notch above us. a 3-seed is a much better shot.
Still think we play ourselves into a one seed if we beat MSU and run the B1G tourney. May need some help across the SEC and ACC but we’d have a tough resume to argue with given non-con performance and coming out of a very tough schedule with only 4 losses. Will be an interesting couple weeks here.
Here is a look at the B1G Tourney too.
Several different opponent options remain for Michigan.
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
https://bigten.org/sports/2018/9/10/MBB_0910182437.aspx
If we beat MSU and Purdue loses a game, Michigan would be the #1 seed vs. Game 3 winner, Friday (session #4) starting at 11:30 a.m. CT, BTN
Friday evening (session #5) Starts at 7 pm EST with the #2 seed playing the #7-#10 winner.
The next game is 25 minutes after at approx 9:30 pm EST #3 vs #6-#11/#14 winner.
There is no question that UM is a one seed if they beat MSU and win the Big Ten Tournament.
I agree in principle but there is a LOT of love for the SEC and ACC right now and despite the B1G being a deep conference I could see how they could still get set up as a two. Gonzaga, Virginia and duke aren’t likely to take a huge step back to wrap out the season without a bad early loss in their tournaments and whoever comes out of the sec will get a look. I can’t see any way UNC could get it over us with the head to head.
Not a coincidence that ESPN has a financial interest in pushing the SEC and ACC either.
(eyeroll)
While there is a lot of SEC & ACC love going around, I don't think too many talking heads have fallen off the B1G wagon either. If M wins out through the tournament, they'll tack on some pretty big wins to an already impressive record. I'd almost go so far as to guarantee a 1 seed.
h2h is just one piece of it, if unc runs the table, meaning wins over duke, probably virginia, that's good enough for a one seed, imo. Their SOS is considerably stronger as well, more quad 1/2 wins. Even with the blowout win, the committee had UM 6, UNC 7, when they released the rankings. Since then UM had two losses and good wins over Wisc and Maryland, UNC 1 loss and win over Duke.
I think the best path for a 1-seed would be having the sec tourney winner have a loss, essentially eliminating them from a 1. Then some combo of UVA-UNC-Duke knocking themselves out or one of them looking bad enough to drop to a two, which can happen as well. Then you'd have Gonzaga, UM, and 2 of the 3 ACC teams as the one-seeds.
Beat Staee
I think paying attention to match-ups in bracketology, especially beyond the first round, is a waste of time. Who is in and approximately what seeds are projected is about as much credence as I give to these.
I know exactly what you're saying. It is definitely silly; however, at least at this point in the season, we can get a better gauge of where teams will be seeded. People were posting ridiculous bracketology threads in January and and early-February. That is when it's just dumb to even discuss it. Right now, it makes more sense with only one regular season game left.
For seeds, yes. But even the brackets analysts put out when the conference tourneys are done or mostly done are still frequently way off with exact match ups. Particularly because it's easy to guess who is #1, 2, 3, 4, maybe even 5, 6, but beyond that, while you can say who is in the top 64 or so, saying who is 25 vs 26 is much harder. So giving any credence to saying that Michigan will be playing SDSU in Des Moines is what I think is silly.
It's the same reason why mock drafts are completely stupid and a waste of Internet space.
Professor Green, with a rope, in the foyer.
How is OSU even still in the field after how awful they’ve played lately and Wesson suspended??
I think they're good enough to earn a lower tier seed, something like 11-15.
The lowest a major conference team can realistically go is a 10-11 seed. 12-15 seeds are exclusively minor conference teams almost always (unless a last place major conference team won their conference tournament).
If OSU loses out, I think they're probably an 11, maybe in the first four. But if they win @Northwestern and in their first BTT game on Thursday, they're probably no lower than 10.
That is astounding to me. They look absolutely awful, and I think they’ll embarrass the conference if they get in (especially without Wesson). The bottom 1/4 of the conference are all playing better ball than OSU right now IMO.
They are 8-10 in conference and 18-11 overall. If they lose out, they’ll be 8-13 in conference and 18-14 overall. Is that really the resume of an NCAA tournament team? I’m honestly asking. I just remember years where Michigan was a bubble team with stronger resumes than that and we missed out.
Did you just start watching college basketball? When has a P5 conference at large been a 12,13,14, or 15 seed? Ohio St will top out as an 11 seed.
No. I have been watching for a long time, but never paid attention to which teams in which conferences are typically seeded.
Not worried about the over-speculation over seeding and location.
Just "Win the Game!". The rest takes care of itself.
Exactly! And Go Gophers!!!
If we don't make a one seed in the tourney, then I hope we are in whatever region that Duke is not in. I think if Zion was going to shut it down for the year, he would've said something about it by now. When he's back, that team is on a level completely by itself. With the exception of Gonzaga, the only teams that have been able to beat Duke this year have done so because Williamson was out. And even Gonzaga was lucky to catch them early in the year when Duke was still "figuring things out."
Just want to put off having to face those guys for as long as humanly possible.
Williamson played the whole game in the loss to Syracuse; Duke had other injuries that game though.
Your point is right though; I also want to avoid Duke as long as possible. I think Williamson would get us into quick foul trouble, and while our 3-point percentage is significantly better than theirs (35.1% vs. 30.8%), I don't necessarily feel confident about this Michigan team outshooting anyone.
That's right. I think it was Barrett who was out that game against Syracuse. Either way, my point still stands as you mentioned. With the exception of Gonzaga, the only teams that have beaten Duke have largely (if not solely) done so because there were injuries that kept Duke starters off the floor. I doubt Duke loses to UNC with Williamson playing the whole game.
Don't worry. State will beat them in the Elite 8, so we won't have to play them. Remember, this is March. It's Izzo time! Uh, did I get that right? . . . .
Deleted
For starters, the difference between being a 2 or a 3 is quite negligible...here, there are likely some psychological advantages to being "under-rated". Though it would likely indicate that they are playing well-with some momentum in their favor.
My dream NC game is Michigan vs Virginia...have wonderful (die hard) Virginia family members. So, do not want to be in the same bracket.
I don't think the difference between a 2 and a 3 is all that negligible.
1. The difference between 14 seeds and 15 seeds is actually pretty big. For the ESPN bracket, the projected 14 seeds are UC Irvine, Yale, South Dakota St., and Ga. Southern, who are in the #86-100 range on KenPom. For comparison, the South Carolina team that we beat early this year is #94. The projected 15 seeds are Montana, Loyola-Chicago, Colgate, and Wright St., who are in the #125-136 range on KenPom. We'd be favored by 2-3 more points as a 2 seed than a 3, and 3 seeds are historically more than twice as likely to lose in the first round (16% vs. 7%).
2. While it's not the case every year, there is a sizable difference this year between 2 seeds and 3 seeds. As a 3 seed, we'd likely draw one of UNC, Kentucky, and Tennessee in the Sweet 16, which is basically a pick-em to KenPom. As a 2 seed, there is a good chance we get either Houston or Kansas in the Sweet 16, where we'd be favored by 4-5 points.
At this point, probably the only thing you can glean from these brackets is who the #1s and #2s are. Outside of a massive slide with a top team losing a couple of games, those teams will probably just get shuffled in the final brackets.
The Maryland game was huge in terms of NCAA seeding.
At this point, I think the only way we could fall to a #3 seed would be losing @MSU and losing on Friday in the BTT (probably vs. Iowa/OSU/Minnesota in that scenario) AND we'd probably need an MSU/Purdue championship in Chicago. Even then, we might need other current #3 seeds to overperform.
On the flip side, only way to a #1 is probably winning out to finish 30-4.
I agree the Maryland game solidified UM as a top 10 team in the nation and can win against a quality team on the road. No lower than a 3 seed, but probably not a 1 seed, only scenario would be to win out and win the the BTT just to get into the conversation. I’d love a 2 seed in the bracket with the 1 seed being Gonzaga. Without Tillie they aren’t elite anymore. Still very, very good, but vulnerable. If Matthews comes back and tries to continue to force shots and clog the offense down, any second round match up will be scary.