Some Football Playoff Talk

Submitted by alum96 on

We are in our own little bubble today but the rest of college football marches on.  Today's update on the playoffs had 2 interesting results - Florida State continues to get punished for winning in uninspiring fashion... which I like a lot.  They have now fallen to #4.  TCU moving up to #3 and separating from Baylor by 3 slots is the other shocker - their bodies of work are quite similar and Baylor won the head to head.  TCU seems to be ahead mostly on SOS overall which is mostly due to Baylor's horrific OOC and TCU's win over .... wait for it... Minnesota.

The Fighting Rich Rods also jumped ahead of MSU to the #7 slot and OSU stayed at #5 despite the loss of QB - granted it was an impressive win over a great opponent last week. :)

Wisconsin is not getting respect and still out of the top 10 with the same record as MSU however - I'd put their wins over Nebraska by a bazillion (vs MSU's by 4) and Minnesota, over MSU's resume of top 2 wins of Nebraska by 4 ... and I struggle to find a 2nd quality win... Maryland would be it I suppose.  The  afterglow of the OSU and Stanford wins is really helping MSU along with "quality losses".

And for all the talk of SEC bias there is ONE SEC team in the top 9.  The SEC West bludgeoned itself to death.

  1. Bama
  2. Oregon
  3. TCU
  4. FSU
  5. OSU
  6. Baylor
  7. Zona
  8. MSU
  9. KSU
  10. Miss State
  11. GA Tech
  12. Ole Miss
  13. Wiscy
  14. GA
  15. UCLA

 

Baylor plays KSU this week and has 1 more chance at a convincing win. OSU plays Wisconsin.  TCU has a tomato can.  Zona v Oregon looks like a straight play in game now with Zona at 7.  GA Tech can now knock out FSU from the playoffs as that 4th seed puts them in a vulnerabe position.

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Bagheera

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:39 PM ^

I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with my opinion of Rich Rodriguez.  This is the 4th or 5th time you have brought it up to me.   

The answer is no. I have said from the beginning that Rich Rodriguez is a good offensive coach who becomes a good head coach when he's paired with Jeff Casteel.  He didn't have Casteel here, so he fielded half a football team.  That's really all there is to it, and I'm not going to get into yet another argument about this.

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mGrowOld

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^

I was simply making conversation and the only reason I asked was because you were so vocal earlier in the season that Arizona would fall apart and they obviously havent.  

Obviously a sore point so rest assured I wont bring it up again.

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SECcashnassadvantage

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^

No way we have a top ten team. Hilarious that Ohio played zero quality teams and is considered. MSU blows and was lucky at Oregon.

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alum96

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:34 PM ^

I will outcontrary you - there a bunch of horrid bowl teams.  We were almost  bowl eligible.  Illinois is going to a bowl. etc

OSU is a whopping 1-0 vs Sagarin top 30 teams.  They will improve that to 2-0 with a win.

FSU is 3-0 vs Sagarin top 30 teams and would go to 4-0.

Bama is 8-1 vs Sagarin top 30 teams

TCU is 3-1.

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blueinmilwaukee

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:31 PM ^

What happens if Missouri pulls off the upset and the rest of the Top 5 win convincingly? Could the vaunted SEC not have a team in the playoffs? Would ESPN even bother to broadcast the game?

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funkywolve

December 3rd, 2014 at 12:24 AM ^

At this point, it seems unlikely that even if Baylor beats KSU, they are going to be moved ahead of TCU even though their resume's would be very similiar.

If you go by the committee's rationale, Bama's body of work is much more impressive then Missouri.  The SEC East is a far weaker division then the West and Missouri got two of the 'weaker' teams in the West with their crossover games - A&M and Arkansas.  Not to mention that in non-conference play Missouri lost at home to Indiana.

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TNWolverine

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:37 PM ^

I don't like the fact that an injured player can have an effect on a teams playoff ranking. I don't think OSU should be in there anyway and I wouldn't want them too, but its a team sport and the playoff committee shouldn't knock a team for an injury. 

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Vasav

December 2nd, 2014 at 10:20 PM ^

Quarterback is an important position, probably the most important on the field/team regardless of what team you're talking about from the HS level on up. But a quarterback isn't like a goalie in hockey, or a star player in basketball, or even a pitcher in baseball. He is very important, and it's incredibly hard to quantify the importance of any player on a team. But qualitatively, if Meyer has two "Heisman" quarterbacks on the team, there's a good chance their performances have something to do with the other 10+ guys on the offensive rotation.



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LSAClassOf2000

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:39 PM ^

Here's the TeamRanking comparison:

Offesne
 Kansas St. Baylor
Yards/Play 6.2   6.1
Points/Play 0.514   0.517
Rush Play % 52.14%   55.14%
Pass Play % 47.86%   44.86%
Completion % 64.08%   58.54%
3D Conv % 45.38%   42.44%
RZ Scoring % 87.50%   83.33%
Defense
 Kansas St. Baylor
Opp Yards/Play 5.0   5.0
Opp Points/Play 0.297   0.340
Opp Completion % 60.60%   52.99%
Opp 3D Conv % 40.29%   36.97%
Opp RZ Scoring % 75.00%   84.62%

On paper, there are a fair number of eerie similarities between these teams, at least insofar as season averages are concerned. This could be an interesting game. Baylor is a low-confidence favorite on their site incidentally. 

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cbuswolverine

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:44 PM ^

I don't have an issue with FSU being at #4, but man if the committee ever drops an undefeated power-5 team that has won 28 games in a row out of the playoff, there's a problem.  

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Former_DC_Buck

December 2nd, 2014 at 8:11 PM ^

And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that to boost OSU's chances. I thought the committee would put OSU at 5 to give them some wiggle room. If OSU won but looked bad doing it they could keep them out. But if they won convincingly, they could move them in. But that was with TCU moving to 4. With them at 3, I just don't see it without a loss. But I'm not convinced we will win anyhow.

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AnthonyThomas

December 2nd, 2014 at 8:40 PM ^

They won't be left out so long as they don't lose. As far as I see it, the whole reason for this playoff is so that every undefeated, power conference team has a chance to play for the title. It took time for change to occurr, but the BCS system was doomed the year three teams went undefeated and Auburn got jipped. The committee surely wouldn't let that happen again.

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Muttley

December 2nd, 2014 at 10:55 PM ^

minimizing the controversy should the committee choose a one-loss TCU over a one-loss Baylor.  Putting TCU at #3 is merely a tool being used in preparation for that scenario.  It may not even indicate that the committee prefers TCU over Baylor, rather that they are just preparing to minimize the fallout should they choose to go that route.

 

My guess as to the repercussions of various upsets, with the sub-points indicating the priority of claims of winning non-present-Top 4-teams for the spot :

1. Ariz(11-2) over Ore(11-2)
    1a. OSU(12-1) (Playskool good) replaces Ore
    1b. Ariz replaces Ore (Playskool shaky)
2. GT(11-2) over FSU(12-1)
    2a.OSU(12-1) replaces FSU(12-1) (Playskool good)
    2b.Ariz(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1)
    2c.GT(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1)
3. KSU(10-2)/ISU over Bay(10-2)/TCU(10-2)
    3a.OSU(12-1) replaces Big12(10-2) (Playskool good)
    3b.Ariz(11-2) replaces Big12(10-2) spot
    3c.KSU(10-2) takes Big12(10-2) spot
4. Mizz(11-2) over Bama(11-2)
    4a Everyone screams "Chaos!!!"
    4b OSU(12-1) replaces Bama (Playskool good)
    4c.Ariz(11-2) replaces Bama
    4d.GT(11-2) replaces Bama
    4e Mizzou replaces Bama if Mizz is dominant
    4f Bama stays if close game
    4g Wisky if Wisky is extraordinarily dominant
5. Wisc(11-2) over OSU(11-2)
    • Nothing to replace here
    • A demolition keeps Wiscy slim chances of 4g alive

(Notice that for each "upset" the list of claims ends when the upseter takes it.)

 

The criteria for selection is described in a manner giving the committee great discretion:

They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings

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Vasav

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^

Anybody else still rooting for chaos? Or is that trend done with the BCS?

If all top six lose...KSt, Zona, GT and Wiscy or a school from Mississippi go. Not chaotic enough.

More realistically, if Oregon, FSU, OSU and Baylor lose, you get Zona and either K-St or GT in with TCU and Bama. Not that chaotic.

Really, the most chaotic thing would be Bama losing to a bad Mizzou and OSU beating Wiscy convincingly, you'd probably not see an SEC team get in. No way you can give it to Mizzou, and Miss St has far too much ground to make up. Hmph. Chaos?

Damn you CFP. You've effectively muted the chaos (for this season, anyway). What am I supposed to argue about right now?



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titanfan11

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:54 PM ^

FSU for financial purposes?  Not to get all conspiracy theory, but..

a Bama-FSU matchup would seem to be highly rated.  And, since Bama would be the #1 seed, they would play at the closer playoff venue (Sugar Bowl this year?), which would allow FSU to also play close to home and bring a lot of fans (as opposed to having to go to the west coast).  

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joeyb

December 2nd, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^

So, say Arizona beats Oregon and Wisconsin beats OSU. Who makes it in? Bama, FSU, and TCU are locks (assuming they win). Then you have 1-loss Baylor, 2-loss Arizona, and then pick a 2-loss school that didn't win their conference (Mississippi State?). 

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gbdub

December 2nd, 2014 at 8:26 PM ^

I still can't make sense of a conference champion being behind a team they beat in the same conference, with the same overall record. Baylor has to jump TCU if they win this week, right?



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