A social experiment: What are our chances of beating Iowa?

Submitted by Lordfoul on October 4th, 2009 at 6:21 PM

I am trying a little experiment regarding the MGoBlog readership's collective grasp of where this Wolverines team is heading this season. To start out I ask:

What are Michigan's chances, in your opinion, of getting a win next Saturday night vs. Iowa?

Please give your prediction in the form of a percentage. Calls of 100% or 0% will be disregarded when compiling the data. I, for one, give us a 30% chance solely on feel based on what we have seen so far.

Comments

Buccaneer_9

October 4th, 2009 at 6:26 PM ^

55%
Iowa does not have an explosive offense and I don't think their defense has seen an offense as dynamic as Michigan's.

I think Michigan will surprise people next week.

I Wrote a 4 Wo…

October 4th, 2009 at 10:07 PM ^

I agree though.

I think Iowa is very unsteady -- yes they beat Penn St, but they barely beat Arkansas State.

I think Tate comes out knowing not to try to do too much (see: OT @ MSU) but knowing he CAN do whatever he wants when he wants to, and Michigan wins by about 14.

I say 60% chance when and my official prediction is:

Michigan: 34
Iowa: 20

JPQ

October 4th, 2009 at 6:26 PM ^

a 40% chance to pull the upset. I think we'll win on the road this year but it will come at Memorial Stadium in Champaign where we have played exceptionally well in the last 30 years as our last loss there occurred in the mid-80s. Go Blue

jg2112

October 4th, 2009 at 6:26 PM ^

50% until the game starts, at which time the variables will change based on how the game develops.

100% chance of that.

You can end your experiment now, because that is the answer.

Magnum P.I.

October 4th, 2009 at 6:36 PM ^

hu·bris (hyōō'brĭs)
n. 1. Overbearing pride or presumption; arrogance. 2. in Classical Athenian usage, the intentional use of violence to humiliate or degrade.

A bunch of other people are enjoying this activity.

petered0518

October 4th, 2009 at 8:52 PM ^

I am not trying to be snotty at all, but from a probability standpoint that is not the correct way of looking at the game.

For example, when a basketball player steps to the free throw line, you don't assume that he has a 50/50 chance of making it or not just because there are two outcomes, make or miss.
It is the same thing with football games, even though there are only two outcomes, win or lose, that doesn't mean the probability of both events are 50%.

arod

October 4th, 2009 at 11:16 PM ^

I can win or not win. So it's a 50/50, right? So then if the average payout from a winning ticket is more than $2, I should be buying these things.

*drives furiously to the nearest gas station, wad of money in hand*

BlueVoix

October 4th, 2009 at 6:33 PM ^

I'll go more optimistically and say 60%. There really is no way to tell how a game like PSU-Iowa shapes out before either team plays more competition. And no, I don't mean Arkansas State.

But if we do lose, I, for one, welcome our new corn overlords.

Ler

October 4th, 2009 at 6:35 PM ^

Baseline of 50%. -20% for the fact that it's a night game at Kinnick which is known for being one of the more difficult venues in the Big Ten. +10% because I really think Tate Forcier has ice-water in his veins and I now believe him when he says he doesn't get nervous. +5% because there's no way Minor/Brown will be held in the same way they were yesterday. Thus 45%

Aamoldini

October 4th, 2009 at 6:37 PM ^

Iowa's offense hasn't really impressed me with (excluding a 35-3 rout of Iowa St.) 17,27,21 and 24 pts (including defensive/special teams TD's like the punt block/return at PSU). If Michigan can click on offense like they did in the last 5 minutes at Sparty, we should win with a few key defensive stops. If not, we lose.
All-in-all, barring any aggravation of Tate's shoulder, I say:
40%, just because Angry Michigan Hating God will deflect Tate's otherwise-gamewinning pass...

BILG

October 4th, 2009 at 6:41 PM ^

40%.

I felt at the beginning of the year that all the following games were coin flips:

ND, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, PSU, OSU, and Iowa. Now I feel we should beat Illinois 65%,but Wisky and Iowa I only give us a 40% chance of winning because they are road games against quality team.

To clarify...I think OSU and PSU are better than us but because we are at home it balances out. Purdue scares me just because it is a total trap game before Wisky and they hung with ND....like every other team they play.

When looking through my Maize and Blue view I see 9-3 with losses to MSU, Iowa, and Wisky.....

Realistically, we will go 7-5 or 8-4.

ajscipione

October 4th, 2009 at 6:55 PM ^

I pretty much agree with your take on M's season. I felt that if they could beat ND, they would have a decent season. I'm hoping 8-4 instead of 7-5. For the rest of the season, my guess is losses to Iowa, Wisconsin and either Penn State or Ohio State. That would make them 8-4.

Muttley

October 4th, 2009 at 9:08 PM ^

I'd group the games as follows

(Team) (WinLikelihood) (SagarinRating)
Top Tier Big10
@Iowa 35% (9)
PSU 40% (18)
tUOS 40% (8)

Mid Tier
@Wiscy 40% (23) (away game at upper mid-tier)

Lower (to Mid) Tier B10
@Ill 70% (91) --note: the Illini's 3 blowout losses have all come to Top 30 Sagarin teams
Purd 70% (82) --note: two of Purd's 4 losses have been cliffhangers vs Top 30 Sagarin teams

Mid Tier FBS
DelSt 99.44% (177)

The season expectation comes to 8-4 (7.95 wins unrounded)

Magnum P.I.

October 4th, 2009 at 8:41 PM ^

All sorts of independent variables can influence the predicted probability of an outcome. You could easily create a regression model with win or lose (0 or 1) as a categorical outcome and plug in any variety of predictors (e.g., points per game, points allowed per game, % upper classmen on team, road record during past three years, opponent's record) to forecast a probability. People here are not relying on logistic regression but rather just guessing. Because it's fun. What's the issue?

Njia

October 4th, 2009 at 9:49 PM ^

40%.
Baseline 50% (i.e. I have no friggin' clue)
-20% for the lackluster performance through 52 minutes last week.
-20% because Iowa's defense can be scary in a game they care about.
+20% because Tate's ice water-coursing veins can negate Iowa's D.
+10% because I can't believe the coaches won't remind the rest of the team that Tate can't be expected to carry them every week (mercy, that's a lot of double negatives).

PurpleStuff

October 4th, 2009 at 6:41 PM ^

After his miscue this weekend, Zoltan will play with fire (and possibly lasers) in his eyes. He won't rest until he drinks the blood of every man, woman and child in Iowa City. 100% chance this will occur.

The game, on the other hand, could probably go either way, but I'd put our chances at around 60% considering Iowa's offensive struggles and my belief that our own offense will operate a little more crisply now that they have a tough road game under their belts.

befuggled

October 4th, 2009 at 6:44 PM ^

I think we have a good shot if we avoid the mistakes we've made in the last two weeks. Iowa hasn't looked impressive except against Penn State.

That being said, they're playing at home, Ferentz is a good coach and they have an excellent defense.

ajscipione

October 4th, 2009 at 6:45 PM ^

I have not seen Iowa play a whole lot this year but they seem like a pretty good team. They came on strong in the second half of last year and are continuing ther momentum this year. They looked really tough against Penn State at Happy Valley, have a decent quarterback abd have some experienced players. On the other hand, how do you explain their lackluster performances against Arkansas State and Iowa State? They seem inconsistent at times. I give Michigan a punchers chance. My guess as to M's chance to win: 40%.

mgofootball4

October 4th, 2009 at 6:49 PM ^

I think Michigan executes on offense better and Tate will keep them in the game. Anything can happen in the 4th and the squad should be fired up in general - I'm saying 55% chance.