So now that we know the matchups, how far do you have Michigan going?

Submitted by sarto1g on March 18th, 2013 at 3:44 PM

Have them losing to Florida in the Elite 8.  We know what this team is capable of, but dare we put them too far in our brackets and add insult to injury in the case of a loss?

 

Any other upsets/cinderellas?  I've got KState in the Final Four and Louisville winning it all.

Comments

DH16

March 18th, 2013 at 3:55 PM ^

WILL PREVAIL

Although ironically I'm pretty sure just picking the higher seed to win each matchup will give you a better bracket than what KenPom would predict if you use it for past years. Can't model madness with a computer, it seems

Michigan4Life

March 18th, 2013 at 4:03 PM ^

is #1 in KenPom ranking.  If you look at recent national champions, they all have one thing in common which is they're all ranked at top 10 in both offensive/defensive efficiency.  Florida is the only one who are in top 10 in both catergories.  However, the season is a weird season with a lot of upsets and no elite team, we could see an outliner for the first time.

SeattleWolverine

March 18th, 2013 at 5:45 PM ^

The AdjustedO and AdjustedD numbers are basically just PPP on O and D adjusted for strength of schedule and then normalized against an average team. So that ranking for Florida already accounts for their easier schedule and the SEC. I believe it is based off of an adjustment just for the opponents corresponding O or D. That is to say, our AdjO is our PPP altered in some way by our OppD. I don't know what the actual formula is but if you use AdjO = PPP*(100/OppD) or the very similar PPP*(100.6/OppD) you will get something that is pretty close to AdjO. The constant 100.6 being the D1 average efficiency this year.

 

In any event, Florida is that highly ranked moreso because they have crazy high margins of victory in their wins rather than because of their soft schedule. They also played a pretty decent non-conference schedule with Wisconsin, Marquette, Middle TN St, Arizona and Kansas State so their overall schedule is respectable. No doubt though that Kenpom has them rated too high based on some blowouts because if they were really that good they would have to be insanely unlucky to lose 7 games.

Needs

March 18th, 2013 at 5:31 PM ^

The KenPom rating is definitetly worth consideration. So is the fact that Florida has not won a single game this year in which the final margin was in the single digits (that has to be one of the craziest stats ever). Their closest win was in the SEC tournament, when they beat Alabama by 10. Their losses are by margins of 1, 6, 11, 3, 6, 4, and 3.

Now I think much of the analysis of "clutchness" is overblown, but is it all overblown? Don't you think Florida's players are going to get a little anxious when their second round game is tied up with 3 minutes left?

In short, KenPom may believe in them, but I'm going to be very skeptical until I see them win a close game. 

Hagen

March 18th, 2013 at 3:53 PM ^

Because I'm a Michigan fan.  And I'm in a pool full of non-Michigan fans who probably won't be picking Michigan (and probably will be picking Louisville).  I like rooting for my bracket, but I like rooting for my own team even more.  Go Blue.

GoWings2008

March 18th, 2013 at 4:20 PM ^

and my parting ways depends if the bracket I'm entering is for money or pride.  But we all know how often upsets happen and not many people gave Rumeal Robinson and crew with an interim head coach much of a chance either.  Not a fair comparison, I realize, but it just proves that anything can happen in this cockamamie world.

God Bless his Maize and Blue heart...

Needs

March 18th, 2013 at 5:34 PM ^

It's not recent, but I watched that Kansas - TCU game. A team that shoots that badly in one game can have a repeat performance, particularly when it's a game in an arena with really poor spatial arrangement for basketball (ie Jerryworld and domes in general).

Now that doesn't make it likely enough to make me say we will do it, but it's not in the realm of the totally crazy. (I think Withey will be the biggest problem if we get that far).

dothepose

March 18th, 2013 at 3:54 PM ^

I have them winning it all, because I feel like they can if they can get past VCU. But I really have a tough time doing that. VCU has the better coach I hate to say and will be tough for Michigan.

enlightenedbum

March 18th, 2013 at 4:04 PM ^

This is where I've got them too.  I don't think Kansas is that great, and in my experience watching them Withey is great defensively but won't give us fits offensively like a lot of bigs.  I'm not as worried about them.  And VCU's press means we get to run all the time.  We're best when we run, so that's fine.

But Georgetown seems like a more talented Wisconsin, which is a bad matchup for us.

Darth Wolverine

March 18th, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^

I have M losing to Kansas in the sweet 16. It breaks my heart to say that, but they decided to not play as well at the wrong time. I would trade most of those non-conference wins for conference wins and a Big Ten title any day.

Ponypie

March 18th, 2013 at 3:57 PM ^

As I fill out the bracket, I see us having more difficulty with VCU than with Kansas; if we make it past VCU, I see a decent chance of a semifinal rematch with Indiana.

On the other hand, why do I even venture into these unpredictable waters?

GotBlueOnMyMind

March 18th, 2013 at 3:59 PM ^

Winning it all, because I cannot in good conscience pick against my team, as that would cause a very small part of me to be slightly happy if I were right about them losing. Can't do it, I am a, always optimistic homer, and have no problem admitting it.

swalburn

March 18th, 2013 at 4:00 PM ^

I also have them losing in the Elite 8 to Florida.  Some point during the season I convinced myself Florida was a great team despite not finding much statistical data to back it up.  I'm worried about VCU but also think VCU could lose to Akron.

MGoCombs

March 18th, 2013 at 4:01 PM ^

An Indiana, MSU, OSU, Michigan Final Four isn't the craziest idea when you go through the bracket. I think Indiana and OSU are virtual Final Four locks, or as much as you can be given the craziness that can be the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and MSU are much less likely, given that Michigan will probably have to go through Kansas and Florida/Georgetown. MSU also has it tough with Duke and Louisville. While I don't think this outcome is likely, I think it is more reasonable than I initially thought.

To actually answer the question, my heart says Michigan all the way, but my brain says Michigan probably falls to Kansas in the Sweet 16.

ChuckieWoodson

March 18th, 2013 at 4:01 PM ^

Let's say Michigan wins it all... and I don't pick them.  I feel like an asshole.  Do I think they'll win it all?  Sadly, I don't.  However, if they get hot - I think they can beat anyone.  They're ranked in the top 15 overall and as such, I feel it's my duty as a lifelong Michigan fan/alum to have them winning it all.