SIAP: UM Opens -11 against NW, Up to -13.5 on Some Books

Submitted by FauxMo on

Rarely do I see a Michigan line where I don't think either "that's about right" or "Michigan should be favored by less," but this is one of them. I think opening at -11 is nuts, and even -13.5 is still too little. Given that NW lost at home to both Duke (by 14) and Akron (by 5), and that the stadium will probably have more Michigan fans than Wildcats fans, I think this one feels like -17 or -18. 

Is NW getting a player or players back from injury? Is this just skepticism because Michigan has been crap on the road the last few years (decade), or what?? 

WolverineHistorian

September 24th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^

It's our home away from home in terms of number of Michigan fans who show up. 

But some very painful and bizarre things have happened there, like A-Train's fumble at the end of the 2000 game....something I'm still not over to this day.  

Recent history wise, Michigan wins comfortably if we are clearly the better team unless bad weather evens things out like the Justin Fargas game in the rainstorm in 1998.  

But I suspect Northwestern is better than their record so it's hard to pinpoint a decent spread on this one.   

Hard-Baughlls

September 24th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^

We've been shit on the road for 15 years now...and this unfortunately includes the Harbaugh era.  Most teams gain 3 points in the line when playing at home vs. a neutral field - so home vs. away is nearly a TD difference in the lines.

Until we execute (yes, I Brady Hoke'd it) on the road, and demolish inferior opponents and play with poise against solid ones, we don't deserve the benefit of the doubt.

2 TD's against a well coached P5 team is a lot, coming out of Vegas....we definitely don't deserve more.

uminks

September 24th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^

Michigan should be able to run on the NU defense. If our D can put pressure on Thorson, I see Michigan winning big. If Thorson has time to throw and rips apart our secondary, then this will be a nail biter.  I also would like to see  our OL continue to improve and give Shea time to throw. If Shea has a big game passing we could win easily as well.

Bambi

September 24th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^

I think Northwestern's being underrated here. Maybe more of how we match up with NW.

Obviously NW is not great, they're 1-2. But that's because their offense is hot garbage. Their D is actually really good, specifically their front 7. According to S&P+, they have the 96th Offense but the 24th Defense. The best D we've faced in the last 3 weeks is Nebraska at 79. The NW D we're going to face is significantly closer to ND than it is close to the other 3 teams we've faced.

We should and probably will win this game. But we're going on the road to face a team with a top 25 D and a really good front 7 while we still have a questionable Offense and OL vs good teams. This line seems fine to me.

I also think people are slightly overreacting to NW's loses. Duke is 4-0 and ranked 22nd, and the loss to Akron while bad was a fluke. 99% of the time a team doesn't get 3 defensive TDs. We're clearly better than NW and should win, but NW is not as bad as people think and they matchup well with what our biggest weaknesses still might be/probably are.

Ty Butterfield

September 24th, 2018 at 10:20 AM ^

I feel like weird stuff happens at Northwestern. When Michigan does win it is always too close for comfort. This team getting any sort of road win is progress at this point. 

NorcalBlue

September 24th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^

Really?  Because of how we looked against a bunch of cupcakes?  Recency bias.  This program is horrible on the road.  Vegas opened this line at -9.5 for a reason.  Their front 7 is solid and I predict our dominate running game, shown against the cupcakes, will suddenly evaporate ala the N.D. game and the way it always does against teams with a pulse.  Lots of predicatble 1st and 2nd down runs up the gut that are stuffed.  Still think we pull it out late, but this program hasn't shown anything on the road in 10+ years and the N.D. game was no indication that's going to change.

maizenblue92

September 24th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^

NU doesn't have nearly the the dynamic players in the front 7 that ND does and NU typically plays a more passive bend dont break defense and ND creates more havoc. NU is a fringe top 25 defense and ND is a fringe top 5 defense. That is a big gap. All that said, Michigan will probably run the ball fine, but not quite at the level of the last few weeks.

LeCheezus

September 24th, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^

I'm surprised so many thought NW would be good this year and are now saying they are "underperforming."  NW has oscillated back and forth between 6 and 10 wins a bunch based on schedule (meaning B1GE crossovers) and roster maturity - teams that coach well but don't recruit at a high level are prone to drop-offs when they have a lot of young guys playing.  Being in the B1GW makes a lot of 8-4 teams out of 6-6 talent teams.

All of that being said, being a 2 TD road favorite against a non-disaster team is still quite a few points.  If you think it should be more, put some money down.

leftrare

September 24th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^

Latest Line in the Chicago Tribune this morning has it as "Off".  I don't know who the Trib uses as its source.  "Off" says to me that the books don't know what to do with it or that betting is volatile and they're taking it off-line.  Obviously, I don't get it.  Can someone splain?

 

Oh, and people, please: Northwestern University should be abbreviated as NU.  thanks.

B1G Winning

September 24th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^

Northwestern's run defense is good. That front 7 is legit.

Patterson will need to have a big game if the rain doesn't hinder the gameplan.  That's the thing I worry about; Northwestern's DBs are pedestrian, so inclement weather helps them out

Perkis-Size Me

September 24th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^

With Larkin now having to retire, this will likely shift the line quite a bit more in Michigan's favor. Grossly unfortunate circumstance and I'd much rather be seeing the man suit up against us, but this limits Northwestern's offense even more now. 

If I'm Pat Fitzgerald, I'm hoping for a monsoon to come through Evanston on Saturday and force this game into an ugly grind.

wayneandgarth

September 24th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^

If its a wet field, as some have said, that should keep the scoring down.  NU has to rely on Thorson's passing to gain yardage which would be even more interesting if wet.  I also like that he isn't much of a runner and the line and LBs should be going off on him. 

Hope Khaleke can not be overly inspired when he gets in the second half. 

Durham Blue

September 24th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^

I'm taking the same approach for NW as I did for Nebraska in hopes of repeating the Nebraska result.  Here we go:

Wow, 11 is a LOT of points to give up!  This game worries the piss out of me.  I'm staying away from that line.  Maybe take the O/U.

Keegs

September 24th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^

After reading numerous reports of the UM-Neb line being outrageous, and how Nebraska was underrated I still felt confident in taking UM -17 and did so successfully. 

UM -13.5 is an absolute no brainer in my eyes. People tend to complain about our run heavy offense, but one thing about a running offense is that it is far more consistent against lesser teams. It's a lot more common to have an off day throwing the ball than it is rushing. 

I don't think this one is gonna be close. 

Ron Utah

September 24th, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^

I think it’s reflective of an understanding that NW is not as bad as they have looked and Fitzgerald almost always seems to hit his stride in B1G play. 

volnedan

September 26th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

NW on the road always seems like a challenge, but this line is tough to take.  While I think we win by 2 TDs, it will be close until late in the 4th and my anxiety wouldn't be worth the extra cash.  I say we pull away 31-17, but you know a bad fumble or pick-6 will keep it too close for comfort.

Forget the M00N game, I think back to the 54-47 game.  Yikes.