SIAP: Michigan Opens as 12.5 Point Favorite over MSU **UPDATED LINE**

Submitted by FauxMo on October 1st, 2017 at 5:03 PM

For the uninitiated, this means that Vegas oddsmakers think Michigan will win by 12.5 points, give or take half a point. (Cue pointless debate about whether they actually think this, or if they just want to tease bets from one side or the other from the gambling public).

IMHO, this seems more realistic than the 17.5 points before the past weekend. I always thought that was too high. This, I think we cover, barring an absolutely awful showing with 3 turnovers or something, or a performance where O'Korn looks like "Indiana game O'Korn." 

UPDATE: The line has climbed to a consensus UM -13.5, so the money is coming in on Michigan. BUT, I just looked at another website which reports that 84% of the bets coming in are on MSU. Unless I am thinking about this wrong, that means that some BIG money gamblers are picking Michigan to make the line move in our favor. THAT I like... 

ANOTHER UPDATE: Bovada just pulled the game off the board. They say it is because of "questionable players." Now, I guess that could be Speight. But it's been apparent to almost everyone that he would probably be out of this game. So is there someone important hurt at MSU? That would explain why money is coming in on Michigan even with a spread that big??? 

Comments

FauxMo

October 1st, 2017 at 5:28 PM ^

Ughhhhh, thank you...

And to Gucci, yes, ideally they want even money on both sides, and then they win on the vig. But the best way to get even money on both sides is to set a line they think represents how the game will actually turn out, otherwise smart gamblers will load up one way or another. That's why I said this is a pointless argument; because the two actually go together... 

Bigku22

October 1st, 2017 at 5:53 PM ^

This is a myth, and simply not accurate. Books are fine have action shaded to one side if they feel a number is accurate or the action is coming from square bettors. 

Spreads are only moved by sharp bettors (pros) or overwhelming money on one side (think Floyd Mayweather type bets). 

The goal is not 50/50. 

FauxMo

October 1st, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^

Agreed. I said I think 12.5 seemed "more right" than 17.5, but I also think that if the line proves "really inaccurate," it is much more likely to be because Michigan won 28-7 or something, not because Sparty loses by a field goal or wins. Just my hunch here... 

LKLIII

October 1st, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^

To be fair, he might not be really expecting them to move the ball much.  A 5.5 spread might mean he's anticipating a sludgefart type of game where we stone MSU most of the game, but we can't move the damned ball.

I'm not as pessimistic personally, but it's not unreasonable for a person who is to think this could turn into some crappy 13-7 or 13-10 type of game where our offense gives MSU a short field or a pick-6 and our OL & RB blocking remains terrible and O'Korn reverts to Indiana O'Korn.

 

WoodleyIsBeast

October 1st, 2017 at 5:40 PM ^

I just don't see how someone can look at how much pressure we are applying to offenses and think Sparty is going to keep it within a touchdown. Yes, that's why you play the game....but from a purely pre-game analysis, that's a bit odd. Purdue went 0/12 in their house against us on third down...we will have the answers for MSU. And our offense hasn't lit the world on fire, but they've been serviceable, and should be in line to take advantage of some nice field position.

Rodriguesqe

October 1st, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^

Hey, I hope I'm wrong. I  was impressed by the Iowa win. And even though I liked what I saw from O'Korn, I think regression is a real possibility (not predicting it, of course).

If MSU has a better offense than us then I think 5.5 is a good line. And I think they may.

And yes, I've seen our defense. I get it.

war-dawg69

October 1st, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^

Why the fuck would okorn regress?. He gets thrown into a hostile away game where the starting Qb is under attack and hurt. The offense was completely stagnant until okorn enters the game. He makes good reads and good throws. Know he gets all the reps with the first team offense. He should progress not regress in my opinion.MSU does not have anything better than us. We are better at every position and will beat them by a lot more than 13. Iowa is not all that and there QB handed msu the game.

MSU has a chance if our offense can't score more than ten points. For all the doubters, I believe we score quite a bit more than that.

war-dawg69

October 2nd, 2017 at 8:26 AM ^

He might progress because he is a human being. There is a reason human beings do things over and over to get better at such things. It's called PRACTICE!. We do not practice and train to regress or get worse at things do we?. If you think he is going to regress, put your money on sparty. I am going with the Michigan Wolverines.

Rodriguesqe

October 2nd, 2017 at 9:41 AM ^

How many times in baseball has a AAA come up to the majors and lit it up for a few games then come crashing down to earth?

Hot hand, no time to think, couldn't prep for him. Lots of reasons a guy could go backward.

Fact is, O'Korn has been behind Speight for 2 years in games and in practices. If the Purdue game is who he really is then the coaching staff did nto make a good personel decision at QB.

SpikeFan2016

October 1st, 2017 at 9:38 PM ^

Yeah, sorry, but the margins of cover mostly haven't been close enough to use that as an excuse. Not to mention, the bettors anticipate that stuff and build it in. 

I can't find the lines for 2008 or 2007, but besides 2009, all of Dantonio's covers have been by at least 7 points. 

  • 2016 we were 24.5 point favorites and won by 9.
  • 2015 we were 7.5 point favorites and lost by 4 points (even without the punt, we don't cover).
  • 2014 we were 17 point underdogs but lost by 24. 
  • 2013 we were 6 point underdogs but lost by 23. 
  • 2012 we were 9.5 point favorites and only won by 2. 
  • 2011 we were 1.5 point underdogs but lost by 14. 
  • 2010 we were 5 point favorites but lost by 17 (!!!). 
  • 2009 we were 3.5 point underdogs and lost by 6 points. 

 

 

LKLIII

October 1st, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^

How do you figure?

Doesn't a 12.5 spread simply mean that (if you take Michigan) you think they'll score at least 13 points more than MSU?  That could happen (or not) in a variety of scenarios.  We could win in a 13-0 shutout or a 42-28 shootout and Michigan would still cover the 12.5 spread.

I have zero concern about our D.  They will be suffocating and MSU likely won't score more than 10 points or so.   The issue is whether or not we will be able to move the ball and/or not cough up inopportune turnovers and give Sparty short fields.

Not particularly nervous about this game overall, but not very good Cincy & AF & Purdue teams all set up camp in our backfield over the past month. I think it's highly unlikely, but it isn't impossible for the MSU game to largely look like the Purdue game we just witnessed.  And if JOK reverts back to Indiana JOK instead of Purdue JOK, we could theoretically be in trouble.

BIGBLUEWORLD

October 1st, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^

Michigan is rested up and ready after an "improvement week". O'Korn and the O line are getting a lot of useful practice.

Michigan State is slogging through troubles.

Never overestimate irrelevant historical data. The current situation is strongly in our favor.