SIAP: ESPN Expert Predictions for The Game

Submitted by FauxMo on April 2nd, 2018 at 9:09 AM

Sorry if already posted. Only 1 of 25 ESPN "experts" predict a Michigan win. Based on some math I just did in my head, that's only like 7.89999% (or maybe less, like 4% er sumthin'?). Not great...

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22992184/espn-ex…

Given that Kenpom gives us a 31% chance, all hope is not lost. But we are certainly going to need to play really, really well to win. And if the team that almost literally could not miss from 3 against Kansas shows up, I am as scared as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs... 

Comments

ijohnb

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^

I must have missed when Villanova became the consensus best-team-ever. I get it, they are good. I will concede even really good status. But 1 out of 25? Michigan can play too, guys.

FauxMo

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:18 AM ^

Yeah, this shocked me. Normally you get a handful of contrarians even in the most lop-sided contests. I wonder if only 4% of their experts picked MSU in 2009, when everyone on Earth knew UNC would win? Be interesting to see what the picks were for that game... 

MGoGrendel

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^

Michigan has had a few.  I'm no expert, but if Nova gets into a tight game near the end, they may get flustered where our guys gain confidence.  Especially if Nova has a really tough day behind the arc and their starters are in foul trouble.  

I hear they are ranked 300-something for bench use (i.e. starters get all the minutes).  Would be great if we can get the refs to call a fair game.  Maybe the block is clean this time.

Hail-Storm

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:24 AM ^

Michigan is only in Championship game because they played easiest schedule ever to get there and barely beat the teams they played (See 12 point win, 4 point win, 27 point win, 1 pt win, and 14 point win, Ave 11.6 pt win margin).

I mean, they were lucky to be gifted this seed after ending the season on a terror beating a team expected to win it all at their place and a nuetral court and beating a two seed by double digits.  

So, there is your prrof that Michigan can not play and should be given no chance tonight. 

Pepto Bismol

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^

They looked great against Kansas. The game prior against Texas Tech? 33% from the field, 17% behind the arc. 

They're a college basketball team. They can shit the bed just like anybody else. And I seem to have misplaced my notes, but I believe I heard somewhere that Michigan is okay at defense.

bronxblue

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^

This is what got me. Michigan is a better version of Texas Tech (same defense, better offense), and that was a 6 point game with 2 minutes to go. But yeah, because Bill Self is a doofus, let's assume the same for Michigan is the ESPN model.

backusduo

April 2nd, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^

It would also be interesting to see what % chance we had to beat MSU in Breslin or I just looked at Kenpom’s pick for the Champ game it was Villanova playing Virginia with Virginia only having a 31% chance to win that championship. Good news is they were 50% wrong, and the other interesting thing is that the percentage of D against O stayed the same.

ak47

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^

I don't know how to break it to people but Villanova shot their season average from three against Kansas. They've had two games this tournament where they shot a better percentage.  The thing that killed Kansas was the number of threes that got taken, but percentage wise that was normal from Nova and I wouldn't count on some regression to the mean for them.

ak47

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^

Its a few percentage points above, not some anamoulous performance is the point. We won't give up as many threes as Kansas did so that won't happen to us I'm just saying the percentage wasn't what did. Its not like they hit 80% of their threes, its a completely replicable performance by percentage for this team. 

We won't win this game solely with defense. If both teams hit 40% of their threes I strongly believe we will have a chance but this is a team that in losses scored 93, 65, 75, and 71. When they played a defense as statiscally good as Michigan's in texas tech they went 4-22 from three and still scored 71 points. We aren't winning this game if we don't score over 70 points even with a good defensive performance. If this game is in the 60's we win, if its in the 0's I feel good as long as MAAR and Simpson are having good games, if the winning team is scoring voer 80 it probably isn't us winning.

lilpenny1316

April 2nd, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^

That's the difference between a 15-point lead and 1-2 possession game.  After watching the Kansas "defense", I believe we can make them earn those 3-pointers.  

If we can hound their shooters like we did Purdue in the BTT Championship Game, we have a great chance.  

ak47

April 2nd, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^

If they shoot their season average of 40% they hit 16 threes instead of 18. Instead of 95 points they have 89. It really ins't that big of a swing. If we hold them to only taking 20 threes and they hit 40% rather than 45% it would mean them going 8 for 20 instead of 9 for 20. My entire point is that them shooting 45% wasn't some anamolous performance that swung the game in a completely unsustainable way. Its what they do, there is no regression to the mean happening like we saw with A&M, the only way to stop this team from running us out of the gym is to stop them from taking more than 20 threes.

 

bronxblue

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^

I hate to break it to you, but Nova shot under 40% from three entering that game. They struggled against Texas Tech from three, with a decent corrolary to Michigan's defense giving them trouble.

Nobody is saying Nova is going to shoot terribly, but if they hit 45% of there threes it won't be because Michigan let them like KU did.

maquih

April 2nd, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^

45% is actually 5 points above their season average of 40%. Also, Michigan is excellent at reducing 3pt attempts, possibly the best in the country depending on which advanced metric you look at.

So, I hate to break it to you but you have no idea what you're talking about. You don't even have the basic facts right.

Virginia is fo…

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

Don't know if people saw this, but Charles Barkley of course picks Villanova this morning on the new ESPN show, "GET UP" with our own Jalen Rose.  He said the reason was his daughter would be mad if he didn't pick nova since she went to school there.  Barkley does say he is worried about Michigan though.  So......thanks for picking Nova Barkley. 

I Love Lamp

April 2nd, 2018 at 9:18 AM ^

Two straight games in this tournament where Nova winning was a bit in doubt somewhat deep in the second half, against Texas Tech and WVU. They are favored for a reason. They are scary as hell, but TT and WVU were up in their business on D, just like Michigan will be. And they were visibly frustrated. We have a chance, and I can’t wait to see the guys play for the title.

lilpenny1316

April 2nd, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^

I will say that Nova didn't look terribly threatened against TTU.  I mean, it was close, but it never felt like TTU had enough to get over the hump offensively.  With our ability to stretch defenses, we can keep the pressure on Nova.