Semi-OT: 2012 Herbie Awards

Submitted by Willhouse on August 21st, 2012 at 5:06 PM

http://espn.go.com/college-football/preview12/story/_/id/8284250/top-pl…

 

Its always a fun to see Herbie's take on things. Despite his misgivings as an ex-Buckeye and his homerism, the dude knows the sport of college football.

Some interesting picks here for sure.

FSU, national champs?

I do not get the yearly fawning over FSU. They've been underwhelming for the past 10 years or so. Basically a better version of ND in my mind.

Denard is the only Michigan player making an appearance, ranked top "ankle breaker" and third-best dual QB. I can't argue against Logan Thomas. But I think DRob is No. 2 at worst.

Herbie likes MSU to win the B1G as well. Hope he is dead wrong on that one.

 

Comments

Gorgeous Borges

August 21st, 2012 at 5:26 PM ^

I'd welcome a national championship game with no SEC schools.

I don't get the Logan Thomas thing. Sure, he's got a hell of a quarterback sneak, but his pass efficiency rating wasn't even as high as Denard's was last year, in Denard's first year in a new offense. And he averaged 3.1 yards per carry rushing, with a career long of 23 (!) yards.

Also, Denard had more rushing touchdowns in 2011 than 2010. wft?

angry byrne

August 21st, 2012 at 9:20 PM ^

I was going to say Collin Klein?  LOLWUT?  But after looking at the numbers, I was amazed to see that he had 27(!) rushing touchdowns.  You're absolutely right about Thomas, though.  Even with the INTs, I'd still take/be more afraid to face Denard over those two.

Here's the full breakdown:

 

DENARD:

1176 rush yards, 5.3 ypc

2173 passing yards, 139 QB rating

36 TDs (16 rush, 20 pass)

15 INT

 

KLEIN:

1141 rush yards, 3.9 ypc

1918 passing yards, 125 QB rating

40 TDs (27 rush, 13 pass)

6 INT

 

THOMAS:

416 rush yards, 3.0 ypc

3013 passing yards, 135 QB rating

30 TDs (11 rush, 19 pass)

10 INT

tricks574

August 22nd, 2012 at 8:13 AM ^

He's certainly shown more on film in the passing game than Denard, and though he may not be as athletic, he is better throwing on the run. I really like Thomas this year, if he can put all of the talent together. Vt could be scary, and might challenge for the a spot in the title game

Roachgoblue

August 21st, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^

He is always wrong with his picks. I do think he is a good analyst, but his picks never match his mouth. He does this for two reasons; to hate on Michigan, and be flashy. He says good things about us, but always picks us to finish behind someone. Corso is high, Desmond is always giggling, Holtz can't speak English, and Millen is a piece of shit. I guess Herbie wins as a decent commentator by default.

LSAClassOf2000

August 21st, 2012 at 6:25 PM ^

Of the 23 players in his list, 10 are from the SEC and  4 are from the ACC. After that, there are 3 each from the Big Ten and Big 12, 2 from the Pac-12 and one Independent. It seems like this approximate distribution is becoming fairly routine when it comes to making such picks. I did note, however, that he picks Stoneburner at TE despite the move to WR, although I assume that he may not have known this at the time of writing. He does give a further nod to Denard Robinson as 3rd on the "Most Exciting Player" list, if nothing else. 

Like others, I do not get the Florida State pick - FSU has not even won the conference title (one division title, I think) since about 2005,  as I recall, and it doesn't seem like they are about to pounce. Their average ranking is in the middle teens (14.8) in the AP  preseason poll (just to illustrate - didn't pull the Coaches' polls) since then and they average an 8-5 record in this period. NC game? USC is far more likely than FSU, relatively speaking, Kirk. Geez, that does sound strangely familiar in the Midwest...almost like another school  fits this bill, as others have mentioned...

Leonhall

August 21st, 2012 at 6:28 PM ^

You are right and I don't think I can take another year losing to those idiots...I can breathe better knowing Msu is running on fumes in this rivalry, still, I have a weird feeling that their qb...forgot his name, is going to be better than most think. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him bet than Kork coupons, couple that with a decent running game, and above average defense, they will certainly be in the discussion for B1G title. I hope playing at home gives us the slight edge this year.

turtleboy

August 21st, 2012 at 6:16 PM ^

I gotta say the Sparty pick is somewhat poorly thought out, too. They didn't win the B1G last year (but squeezed out an overtime win against Georgia.) Herbie expects them to take the next step in 2012, yet they're going to take a substantial step back having lost almost their entire offense and their best defender, while Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin all stand to improve incrementally over last year. 2011 Sparty was good, but in 2012 I'd knock back their ranking nearer to an improving Illinois with their new coach, top 10 defense, and 3 year starter at qb.

michfan6060

August 21st, 2012 at 6:26 PM ^

I would say the top 3 teams are Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin. I'm not really sure on the order. We have some big question marks at Dline and WR, but probably have the best starting Oline in the conference to go along with the most dynamic player in the country. Wisconsin should feature their typical smashmouth running game and if O'Brien returns to 2010 form they could be national title contenders. MSU will probably have a top 5 defense in the country, but nobody knows how Maxwell will do. They also have a lot to replace at WR and although I think their Oline will be solid I'm not as sold on it as others.

turtleboy

August 21st, 2012 at 6:34 PM ^

I gotta put Nebraska over them too. Last year Big Red pantsed Spartys established offense 24-3 at home. They get the road test with them this year against the rookie rebuilding offense, and that's after Sparty's already faced (and possibly lost to) Ohio, then Michigan, and Wisconsin back to back. I have to give the edge to Nebraska shutting down the  inexperienced, (and likely beat up,) Sparty offense when they meet.

GoBlogSparty

August 22nd, 2012 at 10:19 AM ^

We get Nebraska at a difficult stretch on our schedule. While we do lose a lot on offense, I would much rather have to rebuild an offense than rebuild a defense. They only lose a few starters on D but it's something like 60% of their production according to one of the diary entries a few weeks ago. After their disappointing defensive output (one that we couldn't manage to move the ball against) last year, I don't expect their D to be anything spectacular this year.

beachbum69

August 21st, 2012 at 7:12 PM ^

You've continued to call their offense inexperienced, or rookies, but that's only the QB and most WRs.  The QB has been sitting, waiting for three years.  But media accounts he knows every word inside of their playbook.  He just has to get on the field before we know what he will be capable of but on paper he sounds legit.  We should definitely know by the time they meet Nebraska (or even us, for that matter). 

 

But other than their QB and most WRs (yes, they return at least a couple of WRs who have seen game time), 4/5 of their O Line return and all of their (important) running backs return.  One went to the NFL last year but he wasn't even the starter.  Arguably wasn't their 3rd stringer by the time the season was over as he was a fumble machine. 

 

So if their plan is to run the ball with that line and their RBs, and have their defense keep them in games (it has been said they lose their "best" defender although I'd argue Gholston or Bullough are just as impactful), they could hang in there.  MSU has every potential to be a real pest to a lot of B1G teams this year.  Maybe they aren't the breakout BCS bowl contenders we typically see in programs like OSU, but they can certainly be an annoyance just like Iowa or Wisconsin in recent years.

 

*in before my e-stalker marks this as trolling, even though it could not be more of a rational discussion piece conerning a rival*

beachbum69

August 21st, 2012 at 11:06 PM ^

Another jerk that I'll never get an answer from.  For MONTHS I have confronted people, I have explained myself to people, and asked for a shred of reasoning as to why I'm seen this way.  MOST people just run away and never respond and the ones that do somehow think that because I'm rational, because I approach things from an OBJECTIVE viewpoint, apparently I'm some kind of MSU lover.  I can't even comment on our new jerseys anymore. 

 

Alumni (2005) aren't schticks, jackasses.  People who have dumped tons of money over the years into tickets, apparel, and reading/posting on a message board aren't schticks. Get over yourselves. 

justingoblue

August 22nd, 2012 at 2:45 AM ^

My insomnia has gotten the best of me tonight, so I wanted to get some numbers behind your posts. Going through your "recent posts" tab, you've made 170 posts. 118 of those have pertained to Sparty, 19 can reasonably be attributed to Michigan, 3 to ND, 2 each to Ohio and Florida and 1 each to Wisconsin and Minnesota. You've made 23 posts about points and 6 on off topic type subjects.

Again:

Sparty: 118
Michigan: 19
ND: 3
Ohio: 2
Florida: 2
Wisconsin: 1
Minnesota: 1

There are also some Georgia posts I counted in the "Sparty" column, since it was during 2011 bowl practices.

Also, you'd need to explain this gem of a reply before people start believing your Michigan claims, wherein you intimated you would quit pretending to be a Michigan fan when people stopped responding. You also used an all-caps version of SPARTAN FOR LIFE when proudly describing Izzo's contract at one point. Even taking you at your word (which I don't) you're a person with an obsession with Michigan State posting on a Michigan blog.

Anyone using any type of logical thinking, however, would conclude that you're straight trolling. Honestly, after looking over your history in-depth, I'm impressed how well you do troll, and that's not sarcastic in the slightest.

MGoBoard, please save me the snarky remarks about time on my hands. At nearly two, there isn't a whole lot to do when you're having trouble getting to sleep.

ryebreadboy

August 21st, 2012 at 8:44 PM ^

Devin Gardner knows the playbook too... I'd rather have Denard. Knowing the plays is not enough. Experience makes up for a lot. If their D can keep them winning in the early games, the QB should develop decently toward the end of the season, but there's a really rough stretch of games in the middle that could get MSU into serious trouble.

jonvalk

August 21st, 2012 at 11:11 PM ^

You did watch MSU last year, didn't you? The games they were able to win against quality opponents were when they were effective THROWING the ball (ie Michigan) just as much as running. Listen, I'm all for rational discussion, but there's WAY too much Sparty love on here recently for my taste.

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 12:21 AM ^

You raise some valid points, and personally i'm not discounting State this year or writing them off, but all of my concerns for Michigans losses last year are multiplied for Sparty. They aren't gonna fall of the map this year, and will be competetive, but they lost too much to reasonably be considered favorites in 2012.  They lost the starting QB, FB, RB, 3 best WR's, 2 best TE's, and a starting Guard. Last year Sparty passed for 3,535 yards, this year 469 of those yards are still on the team. That is significant. It's also significant that runs up the middle will be much easier this year without Worthy in other teams backfields.

mgolegend

August 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 AM ^

 

I wonder if the msu offense can stay on the field for more than three downs. you have to think if the stuggle to move the ball down the field, that puts the defense on the field for longer periods of time. If this is the case guaranteed they dont end up with a top 25 defense let alone a top 5. 

 

turtleboy

August 22nd, 2012 at 12:27 AM ^

I know they lost dynamic playmaker Russel Wilson, but their new qb OBrien comes in with 17 starts and his pro-style skillset matches up pretty well with Wiscy, I feel, plus he takes care of the rock VERY well in the right system. He was an outstanding pro-style rs freshman at Maryland. He went for 2,438 yards with 22 td's - 8 int's, but when they got a new HC and OC and made him play spread-zone read option he struggled. Playing behind Wiscy's Oline with TE's and Ball controlling the game he should thrive. The two of them should be able to maintain possession and manage games easily. They also return a 1000 yard WR who could outdo last years numbers with OBrien standing in the pocket. Wisconsin's defense is a little underrated, too IMHO. They were outshone by two stars on offense last year but they have 2 All Big Ten First Team outside linebackers returning, and they realistically could be the best linebacking core in the nation this year. Not just the linebackers, though, the whole back 7 is a solid, deep, veteran group who've played in some very big games.

freernnur5

August 21st, 2012 at 6:21 PM ^

It is interesting but I have a couple thoughts:

1. No Landry Jones in the Top 5 Pocket Passers

2. No TJ McDonald in the Top 5 Safeties

3. In his all college team, his whole defensive line is defensive ends. Not one defensive tackle.

 

Wonder why he did those, maybe oversights, maybe not.

At least it opens up my eyes to some new guys to watch for, i.e. some of the UNC players, or David Amerson for example.

corundum

August 21st, 2012 at 7:30 PM ^

There is some sort of blog fixation on hating FSU here. They are actualy going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a proven senior QB in E.J. Manuel. They return 18 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year.

 

The reason they were so ineffective last year, especially in the run game, was a function of a decimated offensive line that was injury-plagued all year. They return their entire offensive line outside of one of their tackles, who is being replaced by a JUCO transfer from Switzerland, and get several promising  line recruits off their redshirts. Their starting running back also got injured halfway through the year last year (Greene), and they gain a highly touted freshman in the backfield in 5* Mario Pender. They also add 5* DE Mario Edwards, DT Eddie Goldman, and CB Ronald Darby. They even have one of the best punters in the country in Shawn Powell.

 

Moreover, their schedule is pretty soft with their toughest game being a road contest against VT. They get both Clemson and Florida at home. I understand that FSU has underachieved lately, but if you do just a little bit of research rather than base your opinion on their past lack of success, you would see they are actually damn good this year. Now, I don't think they will win the title like Herbie does, but they could easily end up in the top 5 when all is said and done.

hopkinsdrums

August 21st, 2012 at 8:17 PM ^

Meh. I see your points. However, they're not going to beat VT and probably not Florida either. NC State could be a real pest too; they've seemily got a chip on their shoulder. With the Florida game coming late in the season, I don't see it happening. At least it won't be done "easily."

DonAZ

August 21st, 2012 at 10:55 PM ^

"... they could easily end up in the top 5 when all is said and done."

Herbstreit's list has three FSU players, all on the defense.  I recall last year's FSU-UF game, which was low scoring and sloppy in many ways, but FSU's defense looked very good.  Put together a healthy offense and 10 wins and they're in the top 5.

Plus, I think the media football prognosticators want FSU back in the mix ... probably as an offset to the SEC.