Scouting the trenches and opponents' strengths
Given the responses to my diary post, it is obvious that the good people of the MGoBlog community would like to have a much more detailed discussion of the strength of our opponents in the trenches, and an overall evaluation of their returning talent levels (a granular evaluation of not just how many starters return, but where the talent lies.)
This topic is going to rely heavily on other teams' fans (i.e. our beloved poster Irish.) So hopefully there are still a few of those rational OSU fans left on the board, as well as insightful Nebraska posters, Chicagoans who bleed purple, and fighting Illini. If you follow a team other than Michigan, with the passion of a crazed fan, give us the lowdown here.
To start on Michigan:
Offense was top 5 last year. Transition will not change Denard's impact on the requirement of opposing D's to change their Safety gameplan, pull back the reigns on overly aggressive LBs, etc. The OL is deep, experienced and talented with an athletic TE to complement. If Molk can maintain his health for most of the year, and Lewan can harness his aggression with discipline, this should be one of the top two OL in the conference. WR corps and RB corps are deep; WR may not have a true vertical threat, but Roundtree is reliable and versatile; RB have a grinder in true-soph Hopkins and several speedy backs. Perhaps rational to expect a step back. But this team was poised to become more than "the most dangerous offense between the 20 yard lines." If Denard can make reads with his receivers stacked in the red-zone, this team will take a step forward in scoring (even if total yards fall a bit.) Anything less than a top 10 offense would be a disappointment.
I'll leave the joy of the D to someone else; and of course, flesh out the offense a bit more.
Discuss.
I think you underestimate how the transition will affect Michigan. I am admittedly no expert, but just from observing other teams in the past, it seems like even if they return 20 starters like UMich there will be growing pains. I think the O will be good, but maybe not as ground breaking as last year. My hope is that after the first few games, things start to click and we can finally start scoring some red-zone touchdowns- something that was frustratingly lacking during last year's season. It seems this offensive set will produce lower YPG, but more points per drive..hopefully. It will be very exciting to see how Borges handles the situation. If the spring game is any indication (along with comments made by the coaching staff) Denard will certainly run the ball quite a bit.
As far as the D, it cannot get worse. I think we have some real players on that side of the ball and it seems like they are really taking to Mattison's coaching. It's so hard to predict based on such flimsy evidence, but I would hope we are hovering around an average Big Ten defense.
Seems to me like our offense this year is geared to 3 avenues.
1. Ball control and brutality
Simple. Run between the tackles, our guys are tougher than your guys.
2. Make stacking the box against #1 a huge liability (like .
This should be achieved with planned QB draws, quick slants and designed roll outs (shifting the pocket might be the greatest asset this offense can develop, as 6'0 denard might have some issues standing tall to throw over 6'6+ lineman.
3. Lull the defense into a sense of false security, then open a drive using last years weapons.
Simple. Spread and shred.
The point is, we have the guys we need in theory to achieve 2 and 3. #1 is the area Im worried most about. However, if you give Denard throws he knows (slants and post) he should be fine. The throws we wont have at this point is the deep threat. However I think people underestimate the Denard effect. Safeties and CBs are the only players on the field with closing speed to almost match Denard sideline to sideline. That is our deep threat. So, the question I want answered this year is can we run between the tackles well enough to keep LBs honest about stopping the run. Denard on a playaction roll out with Hopkins averaging 4+ yards a carry is almost impossible to stop. If personnel shifts to the action, its Denard and a blocker versus a LB maybe a DE and 1 on 1 coverage.
turnovers at crucial times.
This cost us (again) last year. Also Hopkins is our only big back. I'm not sure how durable the other RBs are to carry 20 times a game.
Size doesn't equate to durability. But if you're talking random injuries to the other backs (cough, Fitz, cough) then yes, I would question a good portion of our RB's durability.
In terms of injury - we are fairly susceptible
Also - I haven't seen one back play through the game in our last season consistently, which is my worry
I agree; hopefully that changes this year. I was only adding that I don't think you need to be a big back to be durable. Obviously we have a lot of issues with staying healthy at that position.
more to signify that we may not have enough RBs who can plough through defenders to gain the 3rd and 2 consistently. Hopkins is one of them (or I believe he could be)
Sure Vincent Smith can do it one or two plays. But to ask him to do it throughout the game against 300 lbs defensive linemen will take a toll.
It will, there are definitely smaller players that can handle it. It doesn't seem like anyone on the roster quite fits that description without getting hurt though.
Here's hoping Thomas Rawls can fill that void.
Hopkins is probably our biggest back, but he isn't the only big back we have. Cox and Shaw are both "big" backs". Shaw is basically the size Minor was and most considered him a "big" back.
As someone else stated, big doesn't necessarily equal durable. Look at minor and Brown. Both were big backs and neither were durable.
as the username indicates, I've been reading Mgo for a while now without ever posting. Since Blue-Gray Sky shut down there has been a void in the ND blogosphere and the topics/writing here are on a level that are just hard to find at 90+% of other blogs.
ND's real strength will probably surprise most UM fans that stopped paying attention after the great denarding of '10, as ND's defense was lights out good the last 4 or 5 games of the year. On that side of the ball ND loses 3 starters: Ian Williams (who was hurt from Navy onward and both of his backups plus the top prospect Louis Nix return), Darrin Walls (who was a very solid CB) and Kerry Neal who was kind of meh at OLB. The newcomers at DL and OLB look promising, CB also given that the #3 CB (Robert Blanton) played often and well last year. Add to the mix super prospects Aaron Lynch (DE last seen blowing up the ND spring game) and Ishaq Williams (a 5* OLB) and the front 7 is expected to be very strong against the run. The defensive backfield should be solid, anchored by 5th yr SR Safety Harrison Smith, but thin, as after the #3 CB (Lo Wood) everyone else will be freshman at the CB position.
Offensively ND loses Rudolph (TE), Stewart (OG), and Allen (RB). The nice thing for ND is all the guys filling those roles Eifert (TE), Watt (OG), and Wood (RB) have seen extensive PT (Rudolph and Allen went down for the year shortly after the UM game). Eifert isnt the 95yd TD catching freak that Rudolph was, but he should continue the excellent run ND has had lately at TE, he was ND's 2nd best reciever behind Floyd at the end of last year. Watt had essentially split duties with Stewart from about the Tulsa game onward and while I am no expert on OL play he was widely considered to be a step up in terms of fit for what Kelly's offense will ask an OG to do. Wood is a real talent but the concern will be without Hughes as well can ND find a good #2 back as Wood hasnt shown that he can be a 30 carry per game guy. The other big questions are who will start at QB (consensus here is Crist but there are at least a lot of options not named Nate Montana this year) and will Floyd be back. The way ND played at the end of the year with an improved Crist and reinstated Floyd has the general fanbase thinking we could push 10 wins and the BCS. Like pretty much all years it will depend on how they come out of the first four game stretch, this year they'll get USF, UM, MSU, Pitt.
ND also returns one of the best FG kickers in the country in David Ruffer - which could be the difference in a close game or three.
who will step up at RB? Armando Allen was a solid back but as you said, Wood is not a 30-carries-a-game back. I'm primarily interested to see what Kelly does with the ND run game, which has been spotty for the last decade. QB depth is good, having a good FG kicker is essential, and Floyd is still a great TE. The OL still needs to grow into its 'spread' mode; from time to time on screen plays, the play was successfully executed but the OL blockers were three steps behind the ball carrier and therefore useless for blocking, with minimal gain. The line is good in pocket protection.
You make some good points about ND's defense, but the fact remains that ND's last two games of the year were vs. a wounded USC team and a CC'd Miami, who had already been beaten convincingly by osu earlier in the season. I'll drink the Kool-Aid when I see them containing Denard or at least completely shutting down Michigan's ground game.
and will land in the 18-22 carries/game range most weeks, picking up another 3-5 receptions. Jonas Gray will be the power back who hasn't proven a whole lot yet but has the size/talent to be productive in the hughes role from last year. The problem is behind that ND is losing Cam Roberson a RS FR who was supposed to push for PT for I believe the whole year (or most of it) to a knee injury from this spring. After that is a true FR Cam McDaniel who is coming in this fall. I'd expect Riddick to pick up 5-7 carries /game as Kelly seems to like using him in that Percy Harvin role. It is a scary thin position if Wood goes down.
I think its fair to point out that the situations in the Miami and SC games certainly favored ND having a good defensive performance, but I think there is something to be said for dominating your opponent so thoroughly on D. SC was held to about 1/2 of their season ypc averages and only scored their TD after 4 tries from the 1 after an ND turnover. Also, they did allow only 2 TDs from kickoff of the Tulsa game through the end of the SC game.
I don't think UM will get another 250+ rushing game out of Denard, not because DR isn't capable of doing that - I just think the D is a lot better and perhaps more importantly what Hoke seems to want would be playing into the strength of ND's D, I don't think that lining up and trying to power against the front 7 is the right way to go - spread and shred would likely be much better. Just the million dollar question I suppose for you guys of how much of the old offense will stay in place.
I keep seeing people hype up Hopkins - including Brady Hoke - and I have to admit, I just don't understand all the buzz. There really hasn't been a single thing that's happened in the last year that I remember where he looked like more than a mediocre running back. He trucked Kovacs in the spring game last year, but still got tackled . . . yay. He didn't do anything in the spring game. Whenever I saw highlights of him this spring, he was getting tackled for a 1 yard gain.
I'm not shutting the door on him. I just don't see what some of you all see. As far as pure running ability goes, I would put him no higher than fourth on the team, behind Shaw, Cox, and Toussaint.
you would start Shaw over Cox, correct? I agree that Toussaint is #3 as of today.
I was listing them in no particular order. Cox would probably be my starter to begin, although I'm looking forward to seeing what Shaw can do out of the I-formation. I think this offense will suit him better than Rodriguez's.