Scenario: what happens if we win-out?

Submitted by MGoRob on October 7th, 2014 at 1:28 AM

I'd like to propose this scenario and get a general discussion back . My buddy and I were arguing about Hoke's future and we couldn't agree. So what say you MGOBLOG nation?

The scenario (as unlikely as it may be) :

Hoke and company win out. This means we beat Penn State under the lights. We beat both Sparty and Ohio on the road. We thus finish 8-4 and and likely second in our division as the winner of the MSU/OSU game will likely finish with only one conference loss. In this scenario would Hoke keep his job?

I argued yes. He would have beaten both main rivals on the road. Won 6 straight. And more importantly finished with 8 wins which we kind of assumed from the beginning of the season that's where we'd end up.

My buddy argues nothing can save Hoke due to concussion gate.

My rebuttal is time heals all wounds and if he wasn't fired immediately there's still a chance. Plus there's no home run coach lined up to succeed him.

Humor me and chime in.

edit: I should mention that this was initially sparked by the topic of whether Hoke really is a "dead man walking" or if we are all just saying that because we want it to be true.  We were trying to come up with a scenario in which he would keep his job and this, and only this, was my conclusion whereas my friend thinks nothing can right the ship. ...  and I'll let everyone on the secret, we posted this to actually prove a point as well.  We've noticed how deplorable this MGoBoard has become and were taking 'bets' on how many downvotes and negative, asinine comments we would gather by morning.  All this despite having a CLEAR, LEGIBLE title, so if the topic didn't interest you, one could not click on it.  So yeah, I guessed about 80% negative comments.  Seems I'm pretty close.


Mr. Yost

October 7th, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^

Wouldn't be fired...neither would Brandon. Hoke would basically get a 1 year extension.

They'd say something like "my agent is working on a deal" and Hoke wouldn't answer any questions about it.

Brandon and Hoke would have an agreement that the team would need to continue to get better or he'd be fired after the 2015 season.


October 7th, 2014 at 1:34 AM ^

Between that and Ebola, I'd figure that's at least two signs of the apocalypse. Call the preacher and pass the ammo. Would be fun watching the Lions win the Superbowl though.


October 7th, 2014 at 1:37 AM ^

I like hypotheticals, but before I participate in this one. Does anyone know if I have better odds of winning the lotto? Because this team winning out, with wins over both MSU and OSU would be second only to winning the lotto in things that would bring joy that I'm not sure I can handle.


October 7th, 2014 at 3:42 AM ^

Using Massey probabilities, it's about a 1 in 2,400 chance of Michigan winning out. You have about a 1 in 175 million chance of winning the lottery on a single ticket. If you want to look at it optimistically, Michigan's chances of winning out are about 73,000 times more likely than you winning the lottery. [insert Lloyd Christmas meme]

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad


October 7th, 2014 at 6:10 AM ^

In a thread yesterday, we were dealing with Massey numbers and I think it came out to about a 7%-8% cumulative chance or thereabouts of even being bowl eligible, and an estimated 2% or so if we lost to Penn State, at least using current numbers. If Hoke were somehow to come back from something that relatively unlikely, I would imagine that means that he stays. I suppose then the question would become - "So, what was that 2-4 about then?"


October 7th, 2014 at 8:45 AM ^

That was the first time in my life I've ever been outraged over Michigan Football; that's basically a weekly occurance now. In retrospect, how insane is it that a program could provide it's own clock operators for a contest? I'm surprised there weren't more conflicts of interests like that over the years.


October 7th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^

is some impossible scenario.  Losing Green hurt though.  If our secondary can get healthy I thiink that will be a close game.  Peppers has to get healthy though and I don't know if that is in the cards anytime soon.  In about two halfs of football it became clear to me that he was already our engine on defense.  The team really fed off of his confidence and general competitive disposition.   


October 7th, 2014 at 1:37 AM ^

If Hoke were able to do that, I'd still remove him for sandbagging the first half of the season, I couldn't believe that the light just came on in the 2nd half of the season.


October 7th, 2014 at 1:39 AM ^

You'll hear a voice in the midst of the four beasts and you'll look and behold: a pale horse. And his name, that sits upon him, will be Death. And hell will follow with him. 


October 7th, 2014 at 1:42 AM ^

I'm assuming you live in a state where marijuana is legal? However, if this absurd scenario you speak of does come into fruition, I imagine Hoke keeps his job only if under the table inquiries with Les, Harbaugh etc fall through.


October 7th, 2014 at 1:57 AM ^

More likely scenarios:

Zombie Eugene Debs wins the 2016 Presidential election

Nintendo's next console has no gimmick and is just focused on impressive graphical power

Hollywood goes a year without releasing a sequel or remake

Peace in the Middle East

The Lions win the Super Bowl


October 7th, 2014 at 2:42 AM ^

A more fun question would be, What if Bill and Ted were real and went back in time and convinced coach Hoke to Fire Funk. The season goes better, but we lose to only MSU and OSU. And get blown out it the BTT title game and the bowl game. Would that have any effect on Ausmus pulling Verlander early?


October 7th, 2014 at 2:59 AM ^

I don't know what will happen if we win out, but I DO know what will happen after our next game, win or lose:  someone will post this exact same topic, leaving the rest of us to roll our eyes, groan, and pass this off for the impossibility that it is.


October 7th, 2014 at 7:14 AM ^

I get that you don't like the speculation threads but this one was pretty clear from its title. You chose to not only read it but comment. There are some of us on this board that would rather speculate about these types of things than see joke posts about fictional characters becoming head coach of Michigan or gif posts.