Saturday Morning Beaver Talk

Submitted by JayMo4 on September 5th, 2015 at 8:45 AM

Oregon State kicked off their season last night.  I wouldn't blame you for not noticing, as it was on the PAC 12 Network.  But they won Gary Anderson's first game, beating Weber State 26-7.  Their new QB ran for 152 yards, if you'd like to find something to worry about this morning.  The Beaver defense played very well also after having a poor 2015, holding WSU under 200 yards of offense and stopping them on all thirteen third down conversion attempts.

Now here's the good news:  Weber State is an FCS team coming off a 2-10 season.  The score was only 6-0 at halftime, and 13-7 after three quarters.  OSU went 6-17 on third down, and passed for only 110 yards with an interception.

I've heard some concern about this game from some fans, so what does everyone think now that we know a little more about both teams?

Comments

mGrowOld

September 5th, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^

27-7 Michigan

OSU is not very good, we're home and oh yes

Harbaugh

UNLV vs Weber State would've made the old "pillow fight" hall of fame - they are baaaadddd.

Gofor2

September 5th, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^

The Bad News is Michigan also has butt breath. UM is terrible and should be worried about everyone on the schedule, everyone. Especially now that we know NW and BYU will both be losses for UM it could be a 3-4 win season.

LSAClassOf2000

September 5th, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^

I saw it and thought, "Today - September 5th, 2015 - is the day someone on the blog just up and went there with a thread....well, this season anyway."

Then I found out the thread was about Oregon State, which is at least more topical than some of the overnight fare.

 

DrMantisToboggan

September 5th, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^

Not too worried about a team that scored the same amount on Weber St. that Utah put on us. We will win comfortably and continue to gel and build momentum. I don't mean to turn this into another general team feelings thread, but everyone needs to take a breath. Our team is going to be fine, I still see 9 wins come January.

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UMForLife

September 5th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^

Good advice. I am speaking from my heart, but won't be disappointed even if we go 6-6. We got Harbaugh. I can't imagine anything bringing me down even if we lose more. But I wanna win the rest.

Leonhall

September 5th, 2015 at 9:03 AM ^

we will be okay, but they will be well-coached. I'm sure they will improve from week 1. Our goal should be to fix the mistakes from last week and continue to improve. Add in some things for the guys to improve on for the following week also.

HateSparty

September 5th, 2015 at 9:03 AM ^

I am also confident and worried. It is oxymoronic but true. I believe we win walking away but there is always the concern of egg laying. Utah is a good team and we should have beaten them. If QB play is better, Harbaugh will look to put on a show. He is not Brady or Lloyd. He will allow the boys to go 100% all game, regardless of the score. Now his backups might be in but he will go for the throat with anybody.

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TheFugitive

September 5th, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^

We get a couple extra days to fix mistakes/prep for the next opponent, this is good.  In years past (bye weeks before MSU), I dredded more practice time under Hoke because he was bad. 

alum96

September 5th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^

Weber State is not just FCS its a horrid FCS team.  With these mismatches I tend to look at the halftime score as the "better team" is usually putting in backups in the 2nd half at some point and the "bad team" is worn down, as its usually much smaller physically.  So that halftime score or end of 3rd quarter tells me a lot more than what happened in the 4th.

Mike riley left at the perfect time - that putrid defense lost 9 starters and the only weapon on offense went to the NFL.  They gave up 35, 38, 37, 31, 29, 45, 39, 27, and 47 pts in their 9 conf games.  And again - lost 9 starters.

If a true freshman Qb comes into UM and does well UM has much larger problems then the running game.  Indiana brought in a freshman QB last year and even Hoke's team handled them.   I expect OSU (NTOSU) to be the worst or 2nd to worst team in the Pac 12 this year although I love the new staff - in 3 years this is going to be a very well coached team who gives Pac 12 powers problems, esp at home.

By the way Oregon St was AWFUL on the road last year with a much more experienced team.  The people who are worried about this game are thinking of the name, and conference and didn't look at the roster and turnover.  They are installing a brand new offense to boot - its like going from Carr to rich rod ...with a freshman Qb.  So think 2008 Michigan offense.

I expect this to be the 2nd or 3rd easiest game on the schedule.  I'm expecting something like 34-13 and a lot of people who don't realize how bad Oregon State is, to be yelling "Michigan is back" and talking 11-1 after this game.

Preview I wrote a few months ago below.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/2015-osu-ntosu-football-preview

DonAZ

September 5th, 2015 at 9:19 AM ^

I think Michigan wins.  What I'm also interested in is seeing if Michigan can improve in certain key metrics in the process.

Obvious key metrics -- final score, turnovers, rushing and passing yards.

Metrics I'm very interested in -- first down production, third down conversion rate.

Last year Michigan was horrible with first down production ... resulting in lots of 2nd and longs.  Against Utah Michigan did a little better.  Sadly, Utah did better than Michigan.

I have a debate raging in my mind about which, ultimately, is the more important metric -- 1st down production or 3rd down conversion.  A good 1st down rate suggests an offense that moves well; a good 3rd conversion rate suggests a team capable of sustaining drives.

Anyway ... I'll be watching for Michigan to improve its 1st down production rate.  Fewer 1 yard or -1 yard runs.  Fewer INC passes on 1st.  More 5 to 8 yard gains on 1st, please.

 

Magnum P.I.

September 5th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^

Well, the two are undoubtedly related. The more yards you get on first down, the better your third down conversion chances are. I would really like to see us improve on first down, as this has been an absolute killer to our offense the past two years and was a killer Thursday. I think everyone in the country by now knows that Michigan wants to "establish the run," and thus sells out to stop the run on first downs. We need to adjust. I know it's the Michigan Way™ to run on first down, but this stubbornness is giving our opponents an incredible advantage. It may be un-Michigan, but I think we need to start passing to set up the run instead of the opposite. More play action on first down. More screens. Those two types of plays were very effective against Utah. They need to be used more on first down.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 5th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^

weighting on the QB to hit the key plays. Rudock missed Chesson on the first deep ball - it was 1st down play action and the sideline camera showed JH saying, "Got 'em" as the play started to unfold.

Need the pass to loosen the box as much as establish the run to hit the pass. Guys were repeatedly open. The QB cannot stare down receivers and throw 5+ poor balls per game.

Magnum P.I.

September 5th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^

I agree. And I think the pass will continue to be available until we start to make teams pay for it (and it doesn't have to be deep bombs, either, just TE screen passes would be fine). You saw the running game open up a little in the late 3rd because we were starting to sting them in the short passing game.

We can't wait until we're behind in the second half to play pass-first, though. Based on the past two years (and the start of the last game), you can be sure every opponents' initial defensive gameplan will be to overload the box and stuff the run up the middle. Hoke kept bashing his head against a wall for two years because he thought we would just get tougher or something. We have to be smart and take what they give us.

UMProud

September 5th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^

OSU, unfortunately for them, is going to bear the brunt of Michigan's rage from the previous loss.  We got this one by at least 2 TDs and it'll serve as a decent tune up for the tweaks that JH & company will make after the Utah loss.

Oh and.....

uminks

September 5th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^

the Michigan OL can handle. I think all of our backs will get a lot of yards. I look at this as an overall confidence building game! I would say Michigan 31 vs OSU 13. If we lose this game at home it will be one of those long awful seasons ala '08!

UMgradMSUdad

September 5th, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^

Weber State went 2-10 last year and the year before.  In 2012 (the year John L. Smith bailed on them) they went 2-9.  OSU used 2 QBs last night.  The QB who started in the 2nd half did lead them to 2 TDs and 2 FGs.  He looked pretty fast and elusive, but a lot of Div 1 skill position players look / are fast compared to FCS players on bottom dwelling teams.

If Michigan doesn't win by at least 2 TDs, we probably should start worrying about the rest of the season.

rob f

September 5th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^

somebody in this family for ME to yell at."

Wally: "That's your tough luck, Beav."

Eddie: "Yeah, squirt. Now get lost."

Starring WD as "The Beaver"

mrkid

September 5th, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^

26-7 does not make me afraid of these guys. I would expect that score to be 52-14 before I would think twice about Oregon State. Michigan will win easily on Saturday and I will be happy to be in attendance.

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UMForLife

September 5th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^

I saw the game. OSU was not good. This will be a good game for our LBs to get some practice on the running QB. I expect us to work out all our kinks in this game. I also expect a 100 yard rusher. Load up the box and let Peppers make plays. I want a glorified practice session leading up to BYU.

BYU would be a good measuring stick. If we beat them comfortably, like by 2 TD, we improved. We will see.

I am excited about home opener.