Saturday forecast: chance of rain. Un/Favorable for Michigan?

Submitted by sheepdog on September 8th, 2011 at 10:21 AM

Saturday night forecast: chance of rain

I don’t really have an opinion, so I am interested in some analysis of whether good weather is favorable or unfavorable for Michigan against ND.  We all know that the rain was a non-factor for Michigan for the majority of the time the players were actually on the field.  However, the weather in South Bend was not good and surely contributed to some of the poor QB play and turnovers.

Michigan has the potential for a dynamic rush attack with several weapons: Fitz, Shaw, Denard, etc.  Cierre Wood put up 104 on 20 carries with 1TD last week in poor weather.

Should the weather be good or poor, how does this affect the play on the field and who has the edge?



September 8th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^

From the NWS in AA:

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North northeast wind between 3 and 8 mph. 

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. 

The fact rain chances diminish later in the day is a good thing.  Also, Sunday is setting up to be partly cloudy.  Our stations in GR have taken rain completely out of the forecast on Saturday -- ending Friday evening.  It definitely won't be a repeat of last Saturday.


September 8th, 2011 at 10:25 AM ^

Well if we stick to an offense more like last years, we have a run based offense compared to ND's pass based offense. That doesn't come close to telling the whole story, but I do think Floyd will struggle to go deep in the rain (if Rees can even throw it, depending on how windy it is). Either way, Denard's legs should work fine and that's the best thing we have going for us.


September 8th, 2011 at 10:26 AM ^

I would say possible advantage us. The rain could hinder Rees' ability to throw the ball to Floyd and his other receivers. We have a better rushing attack because of Denard and with Fitz seeming to emerge a bit. 


September 8th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^

With Hopkins back I just want to see him, Fitz, and Shaw running right at Lewan's back for 4 yards every down. Then every once in a while give it to Denard and let him improvise.


September 8th, 2011 at 10:36 AM ^

We are a far better running team, but they (presumably) have a far better run D.  I think it's a wash because of that.

Bigger concern here is what happens with tailgating if the golf course is not open.   


September 8th, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^

I think rain and wind would favor us heavily. We have bigger backs and a good offensive line. ND can't sellout on the run because they have to keep contain on Denard. Also, Denard has a rocket arm. He threw very well in the windy UConn game last year.

PS ... ND didn't look good in the elements last week.


September 8th, 2011 at 11:04 AM ^

Yes, to hell with notre dame. However, one must always remember that Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.


September 8th, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^

Rain benefits Michigan.

OUr strength is our rushing attach, with Denard and Fitz and Manball and power I and the like.  Rushing is less impacted by the rain, and often can benefit from a slippery field because the defender has a difficult time reacting to the RB's cut.

ND's strength (which lines up with our glaring weakness) is their pass attack.  Rain severaly hinders a passing offense, so the rain could neutralize ND's greatest strength.  Also, rain can cause a young QB to turn the ball over - we saw this in ND's opener. 

So, in terms of winning, root for rain.

In terms of watching an exciting football game, however, not so much.


September 8th, 2011 at 10:53 AM ^

It should favor Michigan. Especially with a qb like Denard.

Imagine him going PA, the db's scramble to get back in coverage, then Denard takes off in open space. All on a wet field. As a former strong safety, that would be a nightmare.


September 8th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^

If it rains, it could keep the Irish passing attack to a minimum. If they're passing game is on (the opposite of last week) it could save us from seeing quite a few ND frist downs. However, if it is off (just like last week) we could miss out on a few valuable interceptions or sacks. There is so much going into this game that I doubt one factor could really affect it, solitarily. However, certain combinations of events could send this game either way. 

Here's hoping we get a W


September 8th, 2011 at 11:06 AM ^

ND's offense is more of a passing spread and rain is not a passing game's friend.  If we pick up where we left off in the rushing game, a wet day is in Michigan's favor.  If the TO trend continues from week one, that also bodes well for Michigan.

All tolled, it sounds more and more like a Michigan victory!


Mr. Blue

September 8th, 2011 at 5:17 PM ^

If Notre Dame's sloppiness in week one and our relative unsloppiness (ball security) of week one carry through at all, I think the rain will exacerbate their woes.


September 8th, 2011 at 6:23 PM ^

Notre Dame's best player is Michael Floyd, a reciever, obviously part of the passing game.

Michigan's best player is Denard Robinson, primarily a runner. 

The rain would probably neuteralize ND's passing attack, which can only be better for us. MANBALL!!!