Sam Webb hints on McGary....not good.

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on April 22nd, 2014 at 9:48 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/SamWebb77/status/458765624324276224 Someone apparently in Mitch ' s class claims that he was not present for a final exam...not sure if there are alternate test taking times for scholarship ball players given the fact that the season is over. Was really hoping for his return along with most of you. Not sure why we continue to miss or not pursue other bigs if Mitch is going pro. Hopefully this all ends soon.

Comments

SnackNovak

April 23rd, 2014 at 8:54 AM ^

Doesn't he have ADHD? I seem to recall that was a big part of the reason he left Chesterton for Brewster. If that's the case, maybe the University provides him with special accommodations for his exams.

Rabbit21

April 23rd, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^

Sam has always thought all three of the NBA possibles were gone. This is nothing new. Does make the Horford thing a little more frustrating that the family decided they needed a win and made him transfer right when he was about to be the featured big.

Der Alte

April 23rd, 2014 at 9:21 AM ^

Whilst contemplating, sleepless, whether young McGary shall go or stay,

 The night was unruly: where we lay,
Our chimneys were blown down; and, as they say,
Lamentings heard i' the air; strange screams of death,
And prophesying with accents terrible
Of dire combustion and confused events
New hatch'd to the woeful time: the obscure bird
Clamour'd the livelong night: some say, the earth
Was feverous and did shake.

And yet for all of that, the answer still eludeth. Methinks young McGary may at some future time reveal his plan, but the fog of uncertainty covereth his intent. Verily, I look to Prophet Webb for guidance.

drz1111

April 23rd, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^

I selfishly hope McGary stays, but all this "he should stay its better for him!" nonsense should stop right now.  We should be a better fanbase than that.

The lost earnings from staying in school are HUGE.  Remember that Europe is out there and pays VERY well.  Its not: upside-NBA, downside-bagging-groceries, its: upside-NBA, downside: making a million bucks and being the BMOC in Istanbul, Moscow, Madrid, etc.  There are lots of folks - IIRC, over a hundred - of folks in Europe making over $1 million per season calculated on a US basis (European teams calculate salary differently, so apples-to apples is tricky).

McGary is going to be a professional BASKETBALL player.  He benefits from having as much time as possible to practice BASKETBALL and being paid to play BASKETBALL.  He does not benefit from having to go to class and whatnot.  He's as old as most seniors and doesn't need to hide in college for some sort of extended adolescence.

Now, being an upperclassman is freakin' fun, and theres no reason why someone couldn't rationally decide to pay a lot of money - in terms of opportunity cost - to stay at school a year.  But a million?  Two million?  At some point, it's madness.

I have 2 graduate degrees and a BA.  I will trumpet the merits of a good education as loud as anyone.  But for any player good enough to have a significant professional career in basketball, they should get the hell out of school as soon as they find a professional team that will make it worth their while.

And if they come back, we should recognize that for the charity that it is.

PurpleStuff

April 23rd, 2014 at 10:53 AM ^

The #12 pick in the NBA draft makes roughly double what the #30 pick does, for each of the first three years of his contract.  That gap grows quite a bit if you are pick #31 and not getting guaranteed money. 

If McGary increases his stock to that degree, he basically makes up for a rookie season's worth of lost income in year one and is making double the money in year two (roughly an extra $900K).  And that is assuming a best case scenario where he is a first round pick this year (something that seems far from guaranteed).

If he's just in a rush to play pro basketball, even if that means living abroad, then fine.  But it he wants to make big bucks and have a better shot at an extended NBA stay, waiting isn't such a bad idea.

drz1111

April 23rd, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

Its pretty damn rare for a 23 year old to imrpove their stock materially with an extra season in college.  I can't think of a recent example.  Also, what are the odds that same guy would NOT have improved his stock playing in Europe or a developmental league?  He would get to practice more and play against a higher level of competition...

drz1111

April 23rd, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^

How much is that worth, now that it's clear he's an NBA starter?  $3 million? $6 million?  How much is an extra year of school worth, if raising your stock is rare and the upside is you go sideways and lose a year to make money?

ppudge

April 23rd, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^

He may not have been an NBA player before that extra year of development, which you clearly ignore or do not value. Are you telling me that Darius Morris wouldn't have benefitted from another year under Beilein, improving his jump shot? He'd have probably been a first rounder making guaranteed money much more than what he has made, as he hangs in the league by a thread. Your attitude of "instant gratification" - get yours now if you can, clearly works for the LeBrons of the world but a lot of kids could use a year of development with coaches who actually teach skills rather than manage egos. A year of investment in yourself could be worth more down the road, even if you are "sacrificing" a year of salary.

jmblue

April 23rd, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^

To say it's never a mistake to leave is as ignorant as to say it's always a mistake.  Each case is different.  Forfeiting your college eligiibility isn't a small thing, and if you go pro when you aren't in high demand, you may never be able to get yourself into demand again.  Once a guy washes out, he rarely ever has a chance to make it back.

Also, making a good European team is harder than you're making it sound.  Most (if not all) leagues have quotas of non-EU players, which makes competition for those few roster spots pretty fierce.  Stu  Douglass for instance is playing in Spain, but he's not playing in their top league but a second-division one, which doesn't pay much.  Americans playing there also have to deal with elevated expectations - European fans expect a lot out of their American players, and they will let them have it if they don't turn out to be superstars.  (European sports fans in general are pretty insane - it's not unusual for players to have objects thrown at them from the stands, even from their own supporters.)  Playing overseas is a double-edged sword.

ca_prophet

April 23rd, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^

... because of his age and back injury. If he stays, he might hurt his back again and never get drafted - back injuries are notorious for becoming chronic issues. If he goes his draft position might not get him the contract he needs to get to his second lucrative deal.

Don't act like he's a lock to go in round one if he comes back. Don't act like he's a fool to leave. He has a really tough choice with a wide range of outcomes either way.

I just hope his rehab is going well and he's healthy and ready to impress either way.

Sidepaluofm

April 23rd, 2014 at 6:13 PM ^

We can speculate all we want, it's a crap shoot. 

Either way poses a risk, stay and he could improve stock/reinjure himself. Go and he could get drafted late and miss out on guarenteed salary. 

I love watching him play, know he'll make the best decision for himself and we'll be fine either way. Of course, I'd love to see him stay, but understand if he goes.