Sagarin Rankings Week 4 - U-M Opponents

Submitted by death by trident on September 24th, 2012 at 4:01 PM

I put together a chart of Michigan's scheduled opponents in order of their week 4 Sagarin Ranking.  I listed the current rankings by opponent, the predictive ranking by opponent, the strength of schedule by opponent, and where Michigan plays/played that opponent.

 

Current - U-M Opponents Predictive SOS STADIUM
  1  Alabama     102.04    1  65.81(  78) N
  8  Notre Dame        88.40   10  73.97(  15) A
 21  Ohio State         82.24   22  62.65( 108) A
 22  Nebraska           83.88   19  60.61( 125) A
 25  Michigan State      78.60   30  70.17(  36) H
 28  Purdue               79.74   25  61.63( 117) A
 37  Michigan           77.13   35  76.39(   8) -
 40  Northwestern       75.70   41  64.07(  93) H
 60  Minnesota        71.96   61  61.27( 118) A
 62  Iowa             70.79   64  65.89(  75) H
 67  Illinois      69.56   68  66.98(  61) H
 79  Air Force       68.36   74  59.03( 136) H
193  Massachusetts    42.10  195  68.24(  50) H

 

Things of note -

  • Michigan has the most difficult schedule of all their opponents thus far (duh).
  • The 4 most difficult games for Michigan this year are on the road (or at a neutral location).
    • In fact, in order of difficulty with the current rankings, the away games are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th highest ranked opponents.
      • The average rank of these opponents is 20 (!)
    • The order of difficulty with the current rankings, the home games are the 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th highest ranked opponents.
      • The average rank of these opponents is 78 (!)
    • I realize that it was said over and over how tough this year's schedule would be, the numbers help quantify that for me just how right everyone was.
  • Out of Ohio State, Nebraska, and Michigan State, only Michigan State has a strength of schedule under 100 (36 to be exact).  I'm still holding my verdict on how good Nebraska and Ohio State really are.
  • With Purdue's strength of schedule, I'm not sold on them yet either.

Just as food for thought, here is the B1G Conference as a whole.

 

Current - B1G Conference Predictive
 21  Ohio State         82.24   22
 22  Nebraska          83.88   19
 25  Michigan State     78.60   30
 28  Purdue           79.74   25
 31  Wisconsin         77.37   32
 37  Michigan          77.13   35
 40  Northwestern        75.70   41
 45  Penn State          75.78   40
 60  Minnesota          71.96   61
 62  Iowa           70.79   64
 67  Illinois            69.56   68
 99  Indiana         62.95   97

I also realize that it is fairly early for rankings with the small sample size available, just found some of the data interesting enough to post.

Comments

death by trident

September 24th, 2012 at 5:15 PM ^

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2012 through results of SEPTEMBER 22 SATURDAY

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

So if I read that right, it only accounts for who we have played.

Alton

September 24th, 2012 at 7:17 PM ^

If you use these ratings, and assume that all games end up as predicted (using the calculated home field advantage of 2.42), the final Big Ten standings would look like this:

DIVISION X
Nebraska (7-1)
Michigan (5-3)
Michigan State (4-4)
Northwestern (4-4)
Iowa (2-6)
Minnesota (0-8)

DIVISION Y
Ohio State (8-0)
Purdue (7-1)
Penn State (5-3)
Wisconsin (4-4)
Illinois (2-6)
Indiana (0-8)

Michigan's predicted losses are Ohio State, Nebraska and Purdue (!).  The Nebraska-Michigan game would be for the division title. 

Yeoman

September 24th, 2012 at 7:36 PM ^

that the top FCS team (North Dakota St.) ranks ahead of four B1G teams (Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana). Indiana would be #9 in FCS, Washington State would be #12. N.D.St. would be a ten point favorite over Indiana on a neutral site according to Sagarin, 8 1/2 according to Massey.