Run/Pass % by Formation
Since a lot of comments on here are about how predictable our offense is, I decided to take a look at run/pass % by formation for all of our games. I kept the formations simple and just used Ace, I-form, Pistol, Shotgun, and Tackle Over (Tackle over is usually out of I-form or Ace, but deserves its own category.) I got the stats from the UConn game from a diary that Ron Utah did, everything else I looked up myself from Brian's UFR's.
Here are the charts game by game
Central Michigan
Shotgun - 3 run, 16 pass, 84% pass
Pistol - 1 run, 1 pass, 50%
I-form - 23 run, 3 pass, 88% run
Ace - 11 run, 9 pass, 55% run
Notre Dame
Shotgun - 5 run, 18 pass, 78% pass
Pistol - 9 run, 4 pass, 69% run
I-form - 14 run, 2 pass, 88% run
Ace - 6 run, 17 pass, 74% pass
Akron
Shotgun - 4 run, 15 pass, 79% pass
Pistol - 3 run, 3 pass, 50%
I-form - 14 run, 4 pass, 78% run
Ace - 8 run, 11 pass, 58% pass
UConn
Shotgun - 9 run, 22 pass, 71% pas
Pistol - 3 run, 1 pass, 75% run
I Form - 8 run, 3 passes, 72% run
Ace - 12 runs, 7 passes, 63% run
Minnesota
Shotgun - 2 run (both by DG), 13 passes, 87% pass
October 17th, 2013 at 9:11 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:37 PM ^
he didn't include total yards, or yards per play per formation as another category. Besides we all know now that Borges' new strategy is to throw the players under the bus. They can't "execute" ...
Actually, I really believe that Borges throwing the players under the bus may force Hoke's hand on this. Brady stands behind his players 100% and he has defended his players multiple times in "tough" situations by stating that the coaches must do a better job getting them ready and he NEVER berates them.
I think Borges is breaking Hoke's first commandment with his comments, and this is probably more of a sin than being a offensive coordinator disaster. God I hope so ....
Go Blue!
October 17th, 2013 at 11:12 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:22 PM ^
is that I have never heard Coach Hoke make a comment about execution without also adding that the coaches need to also execute / do a better job coaching. My impression was that Borges never indicated that he wished he had done some things differently, or would reconsider his approach given the facts that this team is current unable to run consistently.
The goal is to be competative on the field. I doubt anyone believes Penn State matched our level of skilled players, yet the offense play calling failed to capitalize on Michigan's obvious advantage of our receivers vs. their secondary. Three passing TD's, one DG run and a defensive score ... yet when we needed to move the ball, well no reason to open that again ...
I just do not believe Borges is being honest in his assessment and I still believe this is unbecoming a coach under Brady's leadership.
Go Blue!
October 18th, 2013 at 9:31 AM ^
keep on apologizing for Borges...i mean fuck it, lets make Borges head coach and hire GERG to run the 3-3-5 and then I really want to hear all your bullshit excuses as to why its on the players lack of execution instead of the BLATANTLY obivious HORRIBLE playcalling on the offensive side of the ball...I only say this because I have read a lot of your other threads where you claim to also "blame" Borges, buy you always somehow blame the players when it is clearly on Borges...so if Borges were head coach, then who would you blame when things continue to go like dog shit???
October 18th, 2013 at 2:10 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 9:16 PM ^
That we should move to more hurry-up no huddle offense. Nice job.
October 17th, 2013 at 9:19 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 9:52 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:35 PM ^
Ok, show me some comparable statistics for other teams? What are the breakdowns for Alabama, or Oregon, or Stanford in various formations? Without having something to compare this to how can we be sure what it means?
October 17th, 2013 at 11:45 PM ^
I dont know the information for other teams, but I can tell you this. If I am playing against Michigan and they come out in I Form or Tackle Over I am adjusting personel accordingly (ex. PSU loading up on DT's.) I would also have some sort of check (moving a safety into the box) to help me better defend against the run. If they come out in Shotgun, i will have some sort of check to help defend the pass.
I would also tell my players if they come out in I form, LB's play more aggressive its probably run. Or if they come out in Shotgun, DL pass rush hard.
There are many more things you can do, when you know the likelyhood of something happening is higher than 75%.
October 18th, 2013 at 9:11 AM ^
That is exactly my point though, without a point of comparison you are guessing! You are assuming that every formation should always be 50% run 50% pass, but we don't know that this is the case for other teams.
October 18th, 2013 at 11:49 AM ^
Dont be a dumbass. I am not saying it needs to be 50/50, just saying when opposing coaches know the chances of something happening are 75% or higher, it makes it a lot easier to stop the offense.
October 17th, 2013 at 9:22 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 9:27 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:36 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 9:28 PM ^
Some additional analysis so we can get an idea of how tightly controlled the game would be based on the OP's data:
FORMATION | RUN | PASS | RUN (AVG.) | PASS (AVG.) | STD. DEV. (RUN) | STD. DEV. (PASS) |
Shotgun | 32 | 108 | 5 | 18 | 2.75 | 3.64 |
Pistol | 22 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3.04 | 1.53 |
I-Formation | 75 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 5.68 | 0.69 |
Ace | 50 | 58 | 8 | 10 | 3.50 | 4.85 |
Tackle Over | 29 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7.80 | 1.21 |
TOTAL | 208 | 198 |
One thing that definitely would stand out, based on this, is that the passing game is very tightly controlled as a matter of formation when compared to the run game. Granted, strength of conclusion warnings apply here.
October 17th, 2013 at 10:38 PM ^
Some of this is because some formations are better for running and some are better for passing. Shotgun is a good passing formation, and I form a good running formation, so it makes sense you would run more out of the I and less out of Shotgun.
October 17th, 2013 at 10:47 PM ^
Right, but if data is accurate, then I believe that you can definitely see behaviors and tendencies in the distribution at this point, or at least to a certain extent. Again, strength of conclusion, sample size, etc..., but the distribution bears out the tight control of Devin's passing and the wide and varied (and even insistent) approach to the running game (relative statistical success in net rushing regardless). Even for shotgun, for example, the deviations aren't too far apart (or at least not as much as one might expect), which might be a representation of the oft-discussed offensive line issues.
October 17th, 2013 at 11:47 PM ^
You could argue that shotgun is actually a better run formation than, I form. I would be willing to bet our ypc are higher out of the gun. Also Oregon is proof of what you can do when you even up the numbers by a QB reading/blocking a player on the defense.
October 18th, 2013 at 9:12 AM ^
Our run percentages are probably higher out of the gun, because Gardner is most effective at scrambling when pass plays break down.
October 18th, 2013 at 11:52 AM ^
I counted scrambles as pass plays in this. And I would still be willing to bet that if you take scrambles out of the equation, we still average more yards per carry out of shotgun. I just dont have time to look up those stats.
October 17th, 2013 at 9:36 PM ^
appreciates the info. :)
October 17th, 2013 at 10:07 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:08 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:11 PM ^
would've been put into greater details than what he put in the chart though it's a great chart in its own right.
October 17th, 2013 at 9:55 PM ^
This confirms my suspicion that Brady Hole intends to out-execute opponents on predicable plays than create a more UNpredictable offense. This takes away the main advantage of the offense. Top tier coaches are generally very intelligent and maximize all their tools.
October 17th, 2013 at 10:00 PM ^
Perhaps DG should be put in the offense RR recuited him for. Maybe RR knew his limitations and planned to run him extenively with short, wide open, passing options created on the run- this seems the best way to exploit DG's skills and minimize his weaknesses- he is not Payton Manning.
October 17th, 2013 at 10:21 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:21 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:16 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 7:40 AM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:23 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:31 PM ^
I hate that we tip our hand so much. It's pathetic. I know the goal of this staff is to be a power running team but being unpredictable can mask many deficiencies.
October 17th, 2013 at 10:35 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 10:43 PM ^
#1 YES
#2 NO
#3 There is no correct answer to your 3rd question
Go Blue!
October 17th, 2013 at 11:07 PM ^
...damn it!
October 17th, 2013 at 10:39 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:10 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:13 PM ^
I'd add shotgun to that list too. This team needs to be much more pass oriented, even considering Gardners interceptions.
October 17th, 2013 at 11:35 PM ^
October 17th, 2013 at 11:52 PM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 12:11 AM ^
Could be off by a few percentage points here or there, as I could have made a few mistakes when going through it. I got all my information from Brians UFRs though.
October 18th, 2013 at 1:22 AM ^
Thanks OP.
October 18th, 2013 at 1:39 AM ^
October 18th, 2013 at 4:06 AM ^
Interesting, I was just being told earlier today in another thread how crazy I was for thinking the offense is too predictable when it comes to run or pass.
I'm sure I will look on here later and see a thread explaining why it is a great thing to be this predictable.