Run/Pass % and PA % by Down and Distance

Submitted by Victors5 on November 13th, 2013 at 12:46 AM

I have compiled a table of Michigans Run vs. Pass Percentage by down and distance through the MSU game this year.

D & D Run Pass Total
1st & 10 63% 37% 204
2nd & 1-3 80% 20% 49
2nd & 4-7 32% 68% 37
2nd & 8+ 34% 66% 94
3rd 1-3 60% 40% 20
3rd & 4-7 4% 96% 24
3rd & 8+ 12% 88% 49
4th & 1-2 100% 0% 5
1st & Goal 93% 7% 15
2nd & Goal 64% 36% 11
3rd & Goal 33% 67% 6

I think most of those percentages fall fairly in line with what you would expect out of a offense.

I also decided to take a look at the down and distance in which our PA passes have been called on this year.

D & D # of PA Plays Percentage
1st & 10 29 57%
2nd & 1-3 3 6%
2nd & 4-7 6 12%
2nd & 8+ 12 25%

A couple things that I noticed

- Most of our PA comes on 1st down. Makes sense since we run 63% of the time.

- No PA on 3rd Down at all (its possible a few plays could be mislabled)

- Highest of run calls (2nd & 1-3, 80%) is also the lowest % of PA passes

- Also a high percentage of PA passes have been called on 2nd & 8+, which is only a 34% run down for us



November 13th, 2013 at 1:06 AM ^

Pass more on first?? This offense is not capable of a power running game as most should know by now. I'm just not liking losing yards, or gaining the line of scrimmage back, in the run game on first down anymore. And for fuck sakes when a team is stacking the box and blitzing call a few screen plays.


November 13th, 2013 at 2:27 AM ^

Didn't gardner get sacked on a third down play action vs sparty or are the booze taking over? Also yes, only 21 play actions seems really low on 2nd down. Faulty memory maybe


November 13th, 2013 at 4:11 AM ^

I'd like to know the success rates (first down conversion) for the 3rd and 4th down attempts. It seems to me that, no matter the distance, our passing game in those spots has been satisfactory while running it--even on 3rd and 1--for example, is the equivalent of euthanizing that down.

Mr. Yost

November 13th, 2013 at 5:35 AM ^

While our percentages may be in line with other offenses, look at the number of plays.

Almost half the time we're in 2nd and long.

If that's the case...shouldn't you do something different on 1st down?


November 13th, 2013 at 6:38 AM ^

Let's see if a nice little Pareto will draw any issues out, eh? It's a strange application of it, but perhaps it turns out to be useful. 

 photo DownDistancPareto_zps64fb8bf3.png

The 80% line sits roughly between 3rd and longs and 2nd and manageables, if you will, so I think you're definitely seeing an issue with getting productivity in the middle of a series. Seeing also that 2nd and long sits within the 80%, it seems (perhaps I am wrong) that first and second down playcalling might be a good focus for the staff. Interestingly, if you break out that subset of plays falling under the 80/20 rule, they constitute a mix of 52.02% run to 47.98% pass.


November 13th, 2013 at 8:00 AM ^

It would be nice to see the trend as the season goes on.  See if the play calling has shifted any over the season.  Seeing as the biggest FIRE BORGES complaint is his unwillingness to call anything other than runs into a stacked line, this would show if he has made any effort to change the play calling as the season has progressed.  

Space Coyote

November 13th, 2013 at 9:39 AM ^

Is the 4th and short number (FWIW, we passed on 4th in short vs Nebraska). It's clear with this team running the ball it should probably be a bit more balanced.

Typically, you'd want 2nd and short more balanced because you can get the defense to creep up a bit more, but that only is a truth if you can pick up the 1st with relative frequency on 3rd and short and not get sacked on your PA on 2nd down. So that's why it's so run heavy.

Obvious is obvious though (and the coaches have discussed it too), 1st downs are killing to offense as far as poor runs, sacks, etc.


November 13th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

The 1st down should be flipped.  If we want to have any success at all, we should throw it on 1st down at least 60 percent of the time. It seems like Borges is letting his ego getting in the way of this or he really can't figure out that we throw it better.