Roy Roundtree, a tale of two seasons

Submitted by artds on

2010: 72 catches, 935 yards, 7 TDs, 4 games with over 100 yards receiving; biggest highlight was the Illinois game where he set the Michigan single-game record for receiving yards with 246

2011: 19 catches, 355 yards, 2 TDs, 0 games with over 100 yards receiving; biggest highlight was catching the game-winning TD against Notre Dame on a fade route.

These 2011 stats seem counter-intuitive given that 2011 was Roy's 2nd year catching passes with Denard as the starting QB and the fact that they were supposed to be running a more pass-heavy offense led by a more pass-happy offensive coordinator.

This begs 2 questions:

1. What gives?

2. Should we expect Roy's production in 2012 to more closely resemble his production in 2010 or 2011?

Note: It's also worth mentioning here that in 2009, he caught 32 catches for 434 yards and 3 TDs. He also put up 116 yards on OSU's defense and caught the 4th quarter TD to take MSU to overtime in East Lansing.

SFWolverineFan

January 11th, 2012 at 2:00 PM ^

How much did the offensive scheme shift affect Roy's targets?  Denard attempted ~30 fewer passes in 2011 than he did in 2010.  I wonder how much Roy's targets dropped.  

Moleskyn

January 11th, 2012 at 2:01 PM ^

I'd say it's more a result of Denard struggling in his first year in Borges' system. It would be more interesting to compare his stats from 2012 to those of 2010. If Denard improves the way Borges has said he will, I would imagine that RR's stats will see a bump as a result.

redhousewolverine

January 11th, 2012 at 5:08 PM ^

I've seen him around a couple of times and he is between 5'10 and 6'0; looked closer to 6'0 but it was tought to tell exactly. Not super tall, but I don't think height is a problem more than he is skinny as hell and is not particularly fast. I think we will see an improvement in his numbers next year as Denard improves. Also, Denard tends to hit his interior wide receivers and TE's more than outside WR's, although I have not empirically tested this hypothesis. As some have mentioned, getting a couple 40-80 wide open grabs due to Denards run-play-action fake that was nonexistent this year helps boost the stats. If you took Roundtree's long wide open grabs out of his stats from 2010, I wonder what his stats would be...(too lazy to do this; paging someone else).

michgoblue

January 11th, 2012 at 2:05 PM ^

I expect him to have a big year this coming year.  It is somewhat obvious that Denard is still struggling mightily in the passing game, even despite his strong showings in the late part of the year.  I do expect Denard to improve, but I also expect that Borges is going to have to accept some of Denard's limitations and work in more of the short- intermediate passing stuff that Roy specializes in.

chewieblue

January 11th, 2012 at 3:47 PM ^

The guy had a better 2010, but still had several crucial drops in that season. One more year to prove his worth.
<br>Also FWIW, a lot of positive buzz about the upside of Jerald Robinson. It would help to have two guys playing well.

WolverineHistorian

January 11th, 2012 at 2:13 PM ^

It did feel like the ball was rarely thrown to him this season.  For instance, the game winning catch against ND was the only time all night Denard threw to him. 

I always figured it was a combination of the new system and Hemmingway playing solid and stealing some of the spotlight.   

joeyb

January 11th, 2012 at 2:17 PM ^

Keep in mind that Roundtree was generally the target or QB Oh Noes plays, resulting in a few receptions per game and generally 70-80 yards and a TD if the defense bit. We don't have anything like that in our offense except PA deep balls, which isn't exactly Denard's specialty.

snarling wolverine

January 11th, 2012 at 6:29 PM ^

We still run that play, but the intended receiver is usually the slot (although Hemingway was the target when we ran it in the Sugar Bowl).  Dileo caught a TD pass from that play.   This year Roundtree was an outside WR and we didn't run it for him.

We didn't run that play as often in 2010 as people suggest.  It was like once a game.  Where Roundtree really racked up the catches last year was on screens.

His Dudeness

January 11th, 2012 at 2:30 PM ^

An offense that no longer utilizes him to his utmost capabilty?

I think it is crazy that some in our fanbase can't seem to acknowledge that RR is one of the greatest offensive minds this game has ever seen. It's not opinion, it's a fact. It's not punching Borges in his Egg McMuffins either. It's simply stating that RR is a better OC than Borges is. Ali is better than Lenox Lewis. Always will be always has been. Was Lewis bad? Not at all. Lewis was very successful in his time and place.

 

His Dudeness

January 11th, 2012 at 4:02 PM ^

You think Borges' plan was "Hey throw it off your back foot very wildly, Denard and Hemingway will bail you out" ??? I am highly sceptical that Borges used hemingway to his utmost potential either.

Irrational thoughts remain irrational...

PurpleStuff

January 11th, 2012 at 4:14 PM ^

In 2010 Hemingway posted 32 catches for 593 yards (18.5 avg) and scored 4 TDs in 10 games.

In 2011 Hemingway posted 34 catches for 699 yards (20.6 avg) and scored 4 TDs in 13 games.

He posted more yards and catches per game under Rodriguez than he did under Borges and scored TDs at roughly the same clip.  And that is with Roundtree and Stonum solid seasons in 2010 as well (over 1,600 yards between them).

Zok

January 11th, 2012 at 2:54 PM ^

And he doesn't have the best hands. We stole him from Purdue and not OSU for a reason.

 

In Borges offense there are few of the Oh No / misdrection plays that Roy feasted on from last year. In this offense, you need to be able to get open just by running a great route and executing. IMO, Roy just doesn't have the ability to get open vs. most good DBs...

Plus, in the beginning of the year when we played weaker teams Denard couldn't throw it in the ocean so that didn't help.

I doubt Roy's numbers improve that much next season, UM REALLY needs Stounum to plays since he is the best athlete we have at WR and the only real number 1 type. If you look at the Sugar bowl NONE of our WRs could get seperation from their man. not even Hemmingway.

Hemmingway does't have great speed but the guy knew out to win the balls in their air, there's a reason why he was the de facto safety value when Denard freaked out and just decided to chuck it.

 

 

 

Hard Gay

January 11th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^

Probably because under RR, Roundtree lined up in the slot and would be matched up with a LB/S which is much more favorable than being lined up on the outside against a CB.  

Seattle Maize

January 11th, 2012 at 3:01 PM ^

I think the issue was a switch to outside reciever vs slot.  At slot he didnt have to worry about getting rerouted and could get a clean break off the line.  He also seemed to fade off his routes and not come back to the ball aggressivley, probably leading to less playing time over guys like Hemingway, Gallon etc. I think his production in 2012 depends on his improvement in route running and hands.

Kennyvr1

January 11th, 2012 at 3:02 PM ^

Borges as it has from the day he came here. If he calls plays that suit our players ability for example against Nebraska and Ohio when we ran zone read short passes to set up big plays then Roy might get some balls but if he runs the offense he did against Iowa, M State, and V Tech then he will be a non-factor. That's why it is funny to hear everyone say what was Denard doing at the beginning of the year that he wasn't doing against Nebraska and Ohio. It's what was Borges doing??!!!!!! He wasn't running the zone read offense with the only player in college football history to throw for 2500 and run for 1500 in a single season.

Seattle Maize

January 11th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^

The reason why Denard looked different against those defenses is because they stacked the box and dared him to throw deep.  Borges called deep passing plays to take advantage of this but Denard was not able to convert.  A short passing game doesnt stretch the field at all and therefore doesnt help the problem.  Nothing agaisnt Denard but we desperatly need our QB to be able to stretch the field and make smart decisions with the football otherwise we will continue to struggle offensivley. 

Maize and Blue…

January 11th, 2012 at 5:08 PM ^

you can stretch the field horizontal also.  Denard doesn't throw a great deep ball so the bubble screen was a tool used to "stretch" the field.  Borges hates this play for whatever reason so we didn't run it.  We also didn't see Denard audible to a quick toss to a WR when covered by a DB playing 10 yards off the LOS.

To say we struggled this year offensively must mean you only watched the parts of games when we were playing under center or the trash tornado game.

jmblue

January 11th, 2012 at 3:21 PM ^

Last year he was a slot.  He rarely ever played outside.  This year Gallon took over the slot position and caught more passes (31) for more yards (453) than Roundtree.  As was true last year, our outside receivers weren't all that productive this season, although they did catch the occasional deep ball.  We really haven't had a consistent deep passing game since Henne/Manningham.

The interesting question is if Gallon straight-up beat Roundtree for the slot position in fall camp and forced Roundtree to move outside, or if the staff felt that they needed both guys on the field at the same time and slot was the only logical place for Gallon. 

Retnep

January 11th, 2012 at 3:56 PM ^

Roy is not very physical and gets pushed around around by physical DBs. He struggled to get off the line and to get seperation. On slants, DBs routinely beat him to the ball (see Iowa, etc). When Dbs would get physical with Roy, often he would break off his routes and look for a pass interference call. 

Roy needs to be in the slot to be effective. Michigan desperately needs another outside guy, someone with speed preferably.

JHendo

January 11th, 2012 at 4:19 PM ^

It really is a shame.  I always hoped he'd be the next Manningham...and he almost was.  Somehow, Denard's passing style has turned into throw it up and cross your fingers that someone will grab it.  With a guy like Junior, it's almost always worth a shot.  However, with the way Roy runs routes (plus his unimposing physical stature), it's not a good idea to send those his way too often. 

That being said, if Stonum is miraculously still allowed to play for Michigan this season, I'd expect Roy's numbers to stay pretty stagnant, possibly improve slightly.   However, if Stonum doesn't make it back, it could force Denard/Borges to take away a heavy dose of regularly ran 25+ yard routes in the playbook, opening up the door for Roy to at least get closer to his Sophomore year totals.

PurpleStuff

January 11th, 2012 at 4:23 PM ^

In 2010 we completed 243 passes as a team for 3,252 receiving yards.

In 2011 we completed 155 passes as a team for 2,377 receiving yards.

In 2010 we threw the ball 385 times.

In 2011 we threw the ball 284 times.

For a variety of reasons (fewer short passes, no big deficits, fewer plays per game) we just didn't have as many opportunities for guys to catch the ball this year.  That is a lot of catches that had to disappear from somewhere.  Roy also went from 13 yards per catch to 18.7 per catch so he was running deeper routes and as such likely targeted less often than an underneath possession receiver (a role Gallon filled this year more often than Roundtree).

No one on the team this year caught 35 passes.  The leading receiver scored 4 TDs and had less than 700 yards receiving.  Nobody else had more than Gallon's 453.  I don't expect those numbers to jump up considerably if we have the kind of year I expect running the ball and playing defense next year.  Roundtree may see a bump as he picks up some of Tay, Koger, and Grady's catches from this year and he may get a few of Hemingway's balls thrown his way if Stonum isn't as effective as Junior, but there just aren't a lot of yards/catches to go around.

thisisme08

January 11th, 2012 at 4:53 PM ^

Roy played slot last year, this year he was outside...RR's system favors slot recievers. 

Its been discussed that Roy was very good at finding those little seems and zones to sit down in last year but this year has had trouble getting the kind of seperation needed to play on the outside. 

Maize and Blue…

January 11th, 2012 at 5:14 PM ^

A finesse offense based on passing to set up the run (SF 49ers w/ Montana).  If you look at games that SDSU lost two years ago their passing attempts far outweighed their rushing attempts including 54 against BYU.  Think MSU this year when we ran the ball like two times in the second half.  If Man Ball was the real mantra Borges wouldn't be the OC, but that's just my opinion.