Rooting Interests for Saturday with Vegas Odds

Submitted by alum96 on November 19th, 2015 at 8:30 PM

4 things need to happen in the next 2 weeks IMO to have a remote chance of playoffs (JimMora.gif here); 2 of them have to happen this week.

UM over PSU; OSU over MSU.

Then next week

UM over OSU; Stanford over Notre Dame

Those are the musts if you believe ACC, SEC, B12 get 3 spots.  if you believe B12 doesn't get a spot then you have more variability.  I happen to believe 1 loss OK or undefeated OK State get in (1 loss Baylor or TCU does not).  I could be wrong.

Cheer for Home Away Line
Good guys PSU UM UM -3.5
Meteor* OSU MSU OSU -13.5
       
Flutie B.C. ND ND -15.5
Cal Stanford Cal Stanford -11
UCLA Utah UCLA Utah -1.5
       
Baylor? OK State Baylor OK St -1
TCU OK TCU Off -Boykin
Iowa Iowa Purdue Iowa -23
NW Wiscy NW Wiscy -10
VATech VATech NC NC -5.5
USC Oregon USC Oregon -4

* if no meteor, MSU loss will suffice

============================

In terms of "great bonus if it happens" we want USC or UCLA to win out, win P12 south, and be a 3 loss P12 champion upseting Stanford.  This would displace both Utah and Stanford and eliminate P12 from playoffs.

The only scenario that helps UM in B12 I believe is OK State and OK both losing at least once more.  Since they face each other a week from now OK State losing this week and then winning next week would be the simple path. 

Also we want Iowa and NW to win out next 2 weeks.

Comments

LSAClassOf2000

November 19th, 2015 at 9:36 PM ^

Thanks to this photo edit appearing this season, I now imagine Mark Dantonio walking around every day with a bag or two of Lay's or Ruffles or something along those lines epoxyed to his shoulder. For some reason, it puts the last eight years of his life and coaching career in a fascinating and compact perspective. 

SugarShane

November 19th, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^

God Dammit, I just Typed this all out but I guess I'll post it here
 
B1G Key Games:
 
Michigan @ Penn State:
 
We all know this, Michigan needs to win out.
 
 
MSU @ OSU
 
Root for:  OSU.  Keep in mind that sparty still plays penn state, so an OSU loss doesn't technically end this longshot.
 
Chances of OSU win:  Very Likely
 
Purdue @ Iowa:  Keeping Michigan's opponents highly ranked does nothing but help
 
Root for:  Iowa
 
Chances of Iowa win:  Very Likely
 
 
 
 
 

ACC Key Games:

 
UNC @ Va Tech
 
People haven't really discussed this much, but there is a very possible scenario that leaves the ACC out of the playoffs.  That involves a 2 loss UNC team beating Clemson in the title game.  
 
This game will be Beamer's last home game, and Va Tech has looked much better since their QB Brewer came back.  I think Va Tech could win on pure emotion for their beloved coach. 
 
Root for:  Va Tech
 
Chances of Va Tech Win:  50-50
 
Wake Forest @ Clemson
 
Any Clemson loss helps, but this just isn't happening.  
 
Root for:  Wake Forest
 
Chances of Wake Forest Win:  Not Happening
 
 
 
 
Pac 12 Key Games:
 
USC @ Oregon:
 
Unlikely to be of consequence, but Oregon could leapfrog stanford in the Pac 12 Title game if Stanford loses to Cal.  Bonus points:  USC loss continues to hurt Notre Dame's SOS.  
 
Root for:  Oregon
 
Chances of Oregon Win:  Likely 
 
Cal @ Stanford:
 
Stanford is the Pac 12's best chance to make the playoffs (and remain ranked above Michigan).  A loss here would be huge in keeping them out.  Stanfords DB's are very wounded, and that is Cal's only strength.  Combined with the rivalry aspect, it could at least be a game.  Bonus Points:  A Stanford Loss Hurts Notre Dame's SOS
 
Root for:  Cal
 
Chances of Cal Win:  Possible, but unlikely
 
UCLA @ Utah:
 
Utah looks to be out for now, but if they manage to win the Pac 12, they will hold that tiebreaker over us.  Booker is out for the year, so Utah's chances took a big hit.  
 
Root for:  UCLA
 
Chances of UCLA win:  50-50
 
 
 
 
Notre Dame Key Games:
 
Notre Dame vs BC (Boston):
 
Root for:  BC 
 
Chances of BC Win:  Unlikely
 
 
 
SEC Key Games: 
 
LSU @ Ole Miss:
 
If Ole Miss wins out and Bama gets upset by Auburn, Ole Miss wins the division.  If they go on to win the SEC title, the SEC is likely left out of the playoffs
 
Root for:  Ole Miss
 
Chances for Ole MIss Win:  50-50
 
 
 
Big 12 Key Games:
 
There is an insane scenario in which every team in the Big 12 ends up with two losses.  It's not happening, but I'll just write it out here for completeness-sake.  Obviously, if this scenario comes to fruition, a 2 loss Michigan should jump them all.
 
Oklahoma loses to TCU, beats Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State loses to Baylor and Oklahoma
TCU beats Oklahoma, loses to Baylor
Baylor beats Oklahoma State, TCU, loses to Texas
 
 
 

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 8:46 PM ^

Didnt realize Booker was out - huge miss for Utah.  Wilson is up and down week to week.

Booker is the nation's leader in carries per game with 26.8 carries

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=37429531&nid=635&fm=home_page&s_cid=toppick2

If Utah somehow wins out (wins south, USC loses 1 game, beat Stanford) the injury could still keep them out vs UM as committe supposedly counts major injuries against a team.  But that guy is the cornerstone of the offense.

I agree on VA Tech with a potential upset - NC scores a boatload though. 

 

TrueBlue2003

November 19th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^

want Utah and USC to win out? Better to have that Utah game look better and they wouldn't go to the PAC12 title game if USC wins out. There's no chance of them finishing ahead of a B1G champ Michigan if they don't play in their own title game. We'll need to look as good as possible if it comes down to a 2-loss Stanford or a 1 loss Ok State or Baylor.

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 9:33 PM ^

Yes in a perfect world.

In a non perfect world USC has 2 very tough games to advance and help us so if they lose one Utah is a threat all the sudden.  So I'd rather UCLA just take care of them this week. 

USC has to beat both Oregon and UCLA...and then Stanford 3 in a row in your scenario. 

Again in some perfect world that is fine but going with probabilies thats a low chance.  So I' fine with a UCLA win this week and then winner of USC v UCLA going to beat Stanford. 

ijohnb

November 20th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^

this point I think we want Utah to lose.  They will remain a "good loss' even if they lose another game and it would serve our interests very much if Stanford was playing an unranked team(or close to it) when they get to the PAC 12 championship.  For SOS purposes Utah winning would be good but I think we are getting beyond the strength of first-game-of-the-season opponents as a real deciding factor.  Stanford is biggest obstacle in our way even if quite a bit clears out in the Big 12.  Michigan ending the season with two wins over top 5 teams with Stanford beating ND and unranked Pac 12 team is a lot better than Stanford ending the season with an ND win and then beating a Top 10 Pac 12 team.  In scenario 1 I think we jump them in scenario B I think they go.  Lot of stuff needs to happen before this is even a real discussion though.

evenyoubrutus

November 19th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^

Let's say Michigan loses to PSU and MSU beats OSU, then Michigan beats OSU and PSU beats MSU. That gives us a 4 way tie in the division, each team with 2 losses. Who wins the tie breaker?

alum96

November 19th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^

PSU would.

Under that scenario, the first of seven tiebreaker rules goes into effect.

 

 

"1. The records of the three [or four] teams tied will be compared against each other."

Penn State and Michigan State each would be 2-1 within the group. Ohio State and Michigan would be 1-2 and, thus, eliminated from consideration.

After that, the first two-team tiebreaker is head-to-head result. Penn State would go to Indianapolis based on a victory over Michigan State.

http://www.mcall.com/sports/college/psu/nittany-lines/mc-penn-state-foo…

liopoil

November 19th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^

If the nightmare scenario happens this Saturday and Michigan loses while MSU wins, this is definitely something to root for! We don't go to the championship game, but neither do MSU or OSU, besides we beat OSU and will get a good bowl game for a good shot at a very solid 10-3 season.

It's funny, could B1G champion 11-2 PSU with wins over Michigan, MSU, and Iowa in the last three weeks of the season have an argument for a playoff spot? I guess the big 10 probably gets left out in this scenario, oh well. But of course, the chances of this happening are incredibly miniscule.

EDIT: Whoops, forgot PSU lost to Northwestern. Hey, doesn't that mean we should beat PSU by transitivity? /s

Blue Crab

November 19th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^

the games themselves are second tier.   Let's just PLAY and WATCH and ROOT for our team.  Speculate all you wish but your wishes do not affect the outcomes.  Carpe diem!  Enjoy the moment!

Moonlight Graham

November 19th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^

First and foremost, we MUST win this weekend, of course. Then, I wouldn't mind seeing lots and lots of two-loss teams lose again. That would give us a "buffer" allowing us to lose to OSU and still get into an NY6 bowl as, perhaps, the highest ranked three-loss team. We've been the highest or second-highest-ranked 2 loss team, and Ole Miss got into the Peach Bowl last year as the highest ranked three loss team. Obviously we want to see a win against the Buckeyes but still making an NY6 in Harbaugh Year One would be a nice consolation prize, especially if MSU got bumped down to the Citrus Bowl.

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bluepow

November 19th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^

If it came down to between ND and us for the final spot...well, to HELL with the chickenshits!  I would like to think the playoff committee knows why there is no head-to-head reference.  This opinion will stand for at least a decade. 

bseidenb

November 19th, 2015 at 10:49 PM ^

It's amazing how much more fun the end of the college football season is when Michigan is in the race.  No more playing for pride or playing to upset Ohio State's season.  I think we all expected this to be the case eventually, but to be here in year one is incredible.  Let's take care of business and root hard for a Sparty loss!  Let's gooooooo!!

Other Andrew

November 20th, 2015 at 8:07 AM ^

If Utah runs the table from here on out, I doubt the committee would put Michigan in above them. Their only losses are a bad one at USC and OT at Arizona. The head-to-head would be hard to overcome. So we want them to fare well, but still pick up another loss.

Other Andrew

November 20th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^

...particularly if Rudock continues to shine. Then one could argue that the current Michigan team is a very differnet one.

Also bear in mind Utah would have wins over UCLA and Stanford in this scenario.

If in the end they consider all else equal, they would put Utah forward.

 

Regardless it requires a lot to fall into place.