Rooting interests

Submitted by taistreetsmyhero on October 28th, 2017 at 4:20 PM

I don't want to beat a dead horse that doesn't even exist, but I showed my dad (former Chair of Statistics at UM--longest serving chair in UM history) this previous breakdown of Michigan's odds to win the Big Ten this year, and he wasn't satisfied with my analysis. So he made me redo it more thoroughly because we're a family of nerds. Figured I'd share it with you since it gives us some rooting interests...

Overall probability Michigan wins the Big Ten: 0.0011%

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like OSU is going to ever do something useful for us, so this number is going to get even lower if Penn St wins. Down to roughly 0.00090%...

It's not going to happen regardless, so your rooting interests may be better spent on how you think results least hurt our recruiting/always rooting against OSU and MSU. But, we do have a promising new QB at the reigns yet again, and anything is technically possible...

Edit: With today's results, the probability jumps to a whopping: 0.0061%. Number is probably higher as the updated Massey win probabilities will most likely change slightly in our favor.

 

Comments

NOLABlue

October 28th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^

Feels weird to root for OSU today, but I want to ruin their season at The Game. If they win out, they're a shoo-in for the CFP so I couldn't imagine a greater scenario than beating them in OT with a bullshit spot on 4th down.

pkatz

October 28th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever root for OSU.

But I also can’t stand PSU - fuck ’em both

bo_lives

October 28th, 2017 at 4:54 PM ^

But all it has ever lead to is them entering The Game with the Rose Bowl or National Championship on the line and then beating us. We have had ample opportunities to ruin their season and it never happens. Honestly at this point I don't give a fuck what is on the line, any win will suffice. 2011 didn't mean shit but thank goodness it happened or we would have 13 straight losses to those fuckers.

Maynard

October 28th, 2017 at 4:24 PM ^

They're not winning the Big Ten so root for whoever. I am rooting for Penn St. today vs OSU because any failures OSU has can affect recruiting so that the talent discrepancy is reduced in future years. What we don't need is Alabama of the North down there.

Plus it's always better to root against OSU and MSU unless it directly helps Michigan in a realistic way.

iamnumber1fan

October 28th, 2017 at 4:25 PM ^

I know the odds are not good statistically speaking, but Peters should give us hope to win out. We have a great defense. A decent offense should make the defense better. I like the odds of  us winning out more than the odds of us winning the big ten....obviously...especially with the way this game is going right now

UMxWolverines

October 28th, 2017 at 4:33 PM ^

I'm not rooting for OSU, I don't give a fuck about "ruining their season". If they lose more games their season is already ruined and we can put the cherry on top. Them going 11-1 or 10-2 is not beneficial to us no matter if we beat them or not.

greymarch

October 28th, 2017 at 4:35 PM ^

Thank you for posting this.  Since it is practically impossible for UM to win the B1G east, I have modified my rooting interests...

 

I want UM to climb the AP poll, and the formal BCS poll (released next week) as quickly possible, and that's how my rooting interests take shape.  The higher UM is in the polls, the better their chances of landing one of the 6 BCS games.

 

So, I am rooting for TCU today (we cant pass TCU if TCU loses today), I am rooting for Notre Dame (yes ND), because we cant pass Notre Dame even if ND loses.  I am rooting for Northwestern today.  I am rooting for PSU, because I hate Ohio State and we cant pass PSU nor OSU if either loses.  I am rooting for Arizona State.  I am rooting for Florida.  Basically, I am rooting against any team which UM can pass in the rankings this weekend.

aiglick

October 28th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^

I mean it would be nice to beat a good OSU team. If PSU and MSU both beat them that will mean they will already have three losses entering The Game. Yes, any win against them is good. You have to admit beating a good OSU team is better than beating a decent OSU team.

Edit: although this year any win against them will do considering this is still a rebuilding year.

His Dudeness

October 28th, 2017 at 4:50 PM ^

That's John O'Neill!

He is the worst ref. Just horrible. I feel bad saying it but that was a game changing play against OSU. I mean fuck em and I don't care but hard not to know how they feel.

O'Neill killed us in that MSU game this year. Killed us.

Muttley

October 28th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^

  • Win out (obviously)
  • OSU, PSU, & MSU each drop one outside of the "Big 4"
  • OSU beats both PSU & MSU (so we can get into a round robin at 1-1)
  • Win the tiebreaker (I didn't bother to look it up)

Not as many events as I thought, but they have to happen in exactly the right combination.  OSU would need to come from behind 28-17 today at halftime.  MSU dropping one to NW today would be one of the events (tied 10-10 3rd quarter).

StephenRKass

October 28th, 2017 at 5:36 PM ^

I want PSU to win. I hate OSU. Anything to knock OSU out. Then, I hope PSU gets nailed by something else with Sandusky and Paterno, and are sanctioned. But not until after they win the Big 10 Championship. That way, let the NCAA deal with it, and let PSU be hurt big time.

Perkis-Size Me

October 28th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^

Since one of them has to win, I’d rather root for Penn State.

The last thing I want is an uber-motivated OSU team coming to Ann Arbor with the Big Ten title and the playoffs on the line. If they come to town with nothing to play for but their pride, and if Peters and the offense continue to progress, maybe we have a shot.