Root against Oklahoma, leave nothing to chance
John U. Bacon tweeted during the Purdue-OSU game, that it would be better for Michigan if OSU won. The numbers may actually show this. According to Nate Silver, Michigan does not fully control its destiny into the playoffs, even if winning out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
Leave nothing to chance, root for Oklahoma to lose a game!
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
I'd rather just root for Michigan. If we win out, we're in. Don't believe any other BS/Fake news.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Kyler Murray may end up throwing for 4,000 yards and 40 TDs this year. Don't underestimate the media's infatuation with individual players. Arguments will be made how he will be able to compete against Alabama's defense.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
Media doesn't pick the teams though. Oklahoma winning out vs Michigan winning out benefits Michigan. M's 3 best wins and 1 loss would be better than Oklahomas.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
Wisconsin and PSU look less impressive every week. If OK beats Texas in their conference championship they've made up for their only loss. I swear, it's like people on this board haven't seen Michigan get screwed repeatedly over the years. From MSU voting to send OSU to the Rose Bowl to Charles White's phantom Rose Bowl TD to the coaches giving Osborne a National Championship as a going away present to the refs screwing us against OSU in 2016 (to pick just one random example), officials have screwed M at very opportunity. Given any cover at all, the smart money would be on Oklahoma being selected.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
Michigan Also best Maryland who beat Texas who beat Oklahoma. If the committee says it’s Oklahoma over us at that point , I would laugh and enjoy the Big 10 title.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^
Who has OK played ? And that loss to Texas? Maryland beat Texas. If both OK and UM win out, it will come down to who has the most quality wins ... that would be UM hands down. Plus our only loss would be to the #3 ranked team - on the road, first game of the season, and UM was driving with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. UM's SoS >> OK's SoS
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:34 PM ^
Iowa will be another top 10 win though
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^
If Michigan wins out AND Notre Dame wins out. There's no way they could leave us out
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
Never overestimate the smarts of the selection committee.
Nice name/join date, btw.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
You guys should buy a megamillions ticket together. I get 5% for the suggestion.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^
Of course there is. If Bama drops a game, either the SECCG or to LSU, then they will almost certainly make it in.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^
Especially if it's to a 1 loss UGA.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
Doubt it...Bama’s Way in last year was everyone had 2 losses. They are not jumping a 1-loss B1G champ especially if that champ is undefeated in conference Michigan. Plus their schedule is pretty light this year outside of LSU.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^
Sure there is. Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan, Oklahoma, Washington State, and UCF all win out. Oklahoma gets a rematch against Texas in the conference championship, Michigan gets a 9-3 Purdue, WSU gets some other barely ranked team. Michigan and Oklahoma have similar records and resumes. Considering that they have two relatively equal teams, they decide to avoid a potential rematch and give the other team a shot. Or, they decide to pit 4 undefeated teams against each other and punt on the choice between 1-loss teams.
I don't think that's likely, but to say there is no way they leave us out is kind of ridiculous. Honestly, a situation like that is ideal for the future because it really pushes the issue of expanding the playoff to 6 or 8 teams.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
Or they could look and see that we technically have an indirect win over Oklahoma (OU lost to Texas whom lost to MD whom we punished). But either way I would be fine with OU stumbling.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
If we win out, our consolation prize would be the Rose Bowl. What sucks is that if we were to lose in Columbus to a now 1-loss team rather than undefeated OSU, there was still a good chance the Rose would take us as the "second best" B1G team, and 12-0 OSU would go to the playoff. But with that Purdue loss, 11-1 OSU gets the Rose Bowl and no playoff.
I also think we're guaranteed at least a NY6 bowl if we win the next 3.
So, anyway Bacon is right ... but our floor is rising, too.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
That's what pissed me off about the OSU loss. We better beat them now. I wanted the Rose Bowl so bad. CFP wouldn't be so bad either.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^
We need to get rid of these conference title games and replace them with the 1st round of an 8 team playoff ... at neutral (domed) NFL sites. Then you could get great match-ups ... instead of a OU vs Texas rematch and a UM vs Purdue or worse Wisconsin rematch, etc.
Using current AP standings as an illustrative precursor for the final CFP vote for round 1 of an 8 team playoff:
- #1 Alabama vs. #8 Oklahoma ... Dallas
- #2 Clemson vs. #7 Georgia ... Indy
- #3 Notre Dame vs. #6 Texas ... Atlanta
- #4 LSU vs. #5 Michigan ... Houston
How cool would that be instead of these dorky re-match conference title games?
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
I like it but maybe put a game in Ford Field. Fuck Jerry World.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
I'm good with all that except...why neutral NFL sites? Why not let the top 4 seeds host?
The best argument against expanding the playoff is that it would diminish the regular season, which is very true. There would a lot of seasons in which the M-OSU game wouldn't even matter that much because both teams would likely have clinched a spot already (like 2016 and possibly this year).
So if you reward the top 4 spots with home field, at least those games would matter. Attendance and atmosphere would be 1 million times better too.
October 23rd, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^
Winner!
If the playoffs ever expand to 8, no way I want the opening round anywhere but in the homes of the top 4 seeds. This would make every single game meaningful.
Can you imagine the outcry of Finebaum and the entire SEC if especially Bama and/or Georgia or any other SEC team had to venture north in mid-to-late December to play at the Big House?
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
Well, in your scenario ND is out...so a spot is open anyway.
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
The Revenge tour would be complete with a win over ND in the playoffs
October 23rd, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
If Alabama, Clemson, and notre Dame win out, that's 3/4. Basically would be Oklahoma and Michigan, and I think Michigan get's the nod.
What we really need to root for is either a Notre Dame loss, or Alabama to win out. Because a 1 loss Alabama is getting in. But if Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Title Game, and we have a 12-1 Bama, 12-1 Georgia, 13-0 Clemson, 12-0 Notre Dame, 12-1 Michigan and 12-1 Oklahoma, we could be in trouble. But that's unlikely as hell
October 23rd, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^
Alabama has to lose two games in order to be out. They aren't going anywhere. There are two SEC teams near them in the rankings close enough that with a win over Alabama puts them in for sure.
I just get the feeling that this will be the example of why 4 teams isn't enough.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
Don’t underestimate the media’s infatuation with Jim Harbaugh.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
This is the winner. There is a zero chance that a 1 loss B1G champ named Michigan does not get into the playoff.
The committee will be drooling at the opportunity for Harbaugh + the insanely large and wealthy Michigan fan base + the insanely large number of other team's fans that hate Harbaugh/Michigan. Like someone else said, it would be a ratings Grand Slam! Not one committee member would turn down that chance.
We just need to beat PSU on Nov 3rd and continue our march towards Indy. Nothing else matters.
October 24th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^
Yes -- win, and we're in. I'd bet everything I own on it.
Texas is going to lose two more games, making that loss look worse. Oklahoma's already been in the playoff twice, and couldn't get any stops on defense. Harbaugh hasn't been in, and the Big Ten was left out last year. A potential rematch with (possibly unbeaten) ND would add more juice. No way Oklahoma's getting in over us.
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
Who is Kyler Murray?...win out and we are in.
October 23rd, 2018 at 7:57 PM ^
The OP is misunderstanding how the 538 model works. Michigan’s chances are effectively the chances of Michigan plus OSU plus Iowa (i.e. whoever can be a one-loss B1G champion). Same for Oklahoma and Texas. Basically, if we win out, we’re in, and the 538 model is predicting that there’s a 25% chance that we win out.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
*it helps Michigan if ND loses a game too, but we root for them to lose every week, so that's nothing new.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
The Northwestern game would be best case scenario.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
Right but I’m hoping to see Michigan vs. ND in the playoffs.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
For the championship. Please lord. We can then say we're the undisputed Champs.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
Michigan, ND, Alabama, Clemson?
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
Because rooting for Oklahoma to lose is within our power?
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
we don't control what happens in a game, but yes, rooting is certainly within our power.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
It is in your power to buy tickets to every OU behind the bench and harass Murray. /s
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
We can offer burnt offerings to the Football Gods--John Heisman, Eddie Robinson, Fielding Yost, Bear Bryant, Woody, Bo, and, for some reason, Rich Kotite (?).
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
We don't need any help...Nate Silver is wrong. Selection committee would spooge at a chance to put Michigan in the CFP...best ratings in years
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
This is the hill I'm planting my Block M flag on, too.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Agreed. Michigan finally breaking through under Harbaugh, and possibly rematching ND is as close to "must see TV" as the CFP will get.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
How many fan bases would tune in just hoping their "biggest rival" would lose?!?!
It'd probably be the best ratings ever.
October 23rd, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
You mean because of all the Rutgers and Illinois fans watching???
October 23rd, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
If Nate Silver was correct all the time we would have President Hillary Clinton. Michigan is a huge draw for TV and as mentioned before would be an ideal pick to be in the CFP.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
Which would most of you rather have?
Option 1: 12-2 with a playoff loss
Option 2: 13-1 and Rose Bowl Champions
Both scenarios include beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title. Genuinely curious about this.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
Option 2. Winning the rose bowl as big ten champs is nothin to snooze at
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:59 PM ^
Ridiculous - I would rather lose by 40 against Bama than beat some average Pac12 team in the Rose Bowl. Who would we even play? A 3 loss Washington State?
October 24th, 2018 at 9:06 AM ^
If they win out and end up in the Rose Bowl, it will be very difficult for them to get up for that game. There are so many examples of teams losing a shot at a national title on the last day of the season, then losing the bowl game.
October 23rd, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
Option 1 especially if the playoff loss is close.