Rittenberg's Latest Big Ten Bowl Projections

Submitted by MGoShoe on October 17th, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Adam Rittenberg, ESPN.com's Big Ten blogger has posted his latest Big Ten bowl projections.  After the loss to Iowa, he has Michigan in the Insight Bowl which is played in Sun Devil Stadium on Dec 28.  That's less interesting to me than his prediction for who'll end up as the Big Ten champion and Rose Bowl representative (not MSU or OSU). 

Rose Bowl

 Iowa vs. BCS team

Fiesta/Sugar/Orange Bowl

 Michigan State vs. BCS team

Capital One

 Ohio State vs. SEC team

Outback

 Wisconsin vs. SEC team

Gator

 Illinois vs. SEC team

Insight Bowl

 Michigan vs. Big 12 team

Texas Bowl

 Northwestern vs. Big 12 team

Dallas Football Classic

 Penn State vs. Big 12 team

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl

 Purdue vs. MAC team

I figure we're still good for the Gator Bowl as I think we'll defeat PSU, Illinois and Purdue to finish the regular season at 8-4.

Comments

Mr. Robot

October 17th, 2010 at 8:50 PM ^

You forgot about Ohio State.

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Otherwise, co-signed, because I was also thinking 8-4 and the Gator Bowl before the seaosn even started, an MSU and Iowa haven't changed that.

SpartanDan

October 17th, 2010 at 9:51 PM ^

Any tie that can't be resolved by head-to-head, and they're out due to losing to Arizona. If they wind up tied at 7-1 with MSU and OSU, it's going to be either MSU or OSU, with BCS standings as the deciding factor. If it's MSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin, MSU goes to the Rose Bowl (head-to-head over Wisconsin after Iowa is eliminated). If they drop one, they have to hope the team that beat them ends up with two losses, or they're out.

JClay

October 17th, 2010 at 9:00 PM ^

I cant imagine that even if Illinois was ahead of us in standings that the Gator Bowl would pass on us to pick Illinois. We are a way better school as far as travel and tv ratings, as crass as it is to say.

Wolverine In Exile

October 17th, 2010 at 9:07 PM ^

I'm still thinking 7 wins is where we're headed (although i'd love 8 wins). I believe bowls are allowed to pick teams lower in the standings as long as the difference isn't more than 1 game.

On a separate note though, if those were the bowl matchups, we're looking at a Big Ten romp in the bowl season as due to Sparty's jump and OSU's slip up, we'll actually be slotted with appropriate teams against the competition.

mgokev

October 17th, 2010 at 9:11 PM ^

Seeing as I will be living in Jacksonville come Jan. 1, I would love to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl.  I would gladly sacrifice that opportunity to be in a better bowl though.

mGrowOld

October 17th, 2010 at 9:34 PM ^

I 100% agree.  I think Shaw (when healthy) is our best back but Hopkins might be the best compliment to Denard.  When he hits the hole the entire line moves back as he seems to be one of those players who can go from dead stop to full speed in about two steps.  I think he should start getting more reps in front of Smith.

MEZman

October 18th, 2010 at 12:25 AM ^

Yeah it's not going to do much to quell the "Big Ten is a weak conference" meme that is highly annoying but I'll live with it if Sparty gets humiliated.

 

Who knows maybe the entire MSU team will get arrested before the bowl game and the announcers will still talk about how good of a disciplinarian Dantonio is... another meme that I wish would die already.

Blue In NC

October 18th, 2010 at 10:25 AM ^

I think everyone (except apparently you) understands that BSU and AU are better teams than Michigan is at this point.  Oh, I am sorry, I guess I should not expect you to understand that complicated point.  Thanks for your great contribution.

Token_sparty

October 18th, 2010 at 12:13 PM ^

Yes, Boise and Auburn ARE better teams than Michigan- on that we both agree. 

Oh, you meant MSU?  Well then.  Yes, those two teams will probably beat us.  Basically, Auburn is Michigan with a semblance of defense, and Boise State is, well, Boise State.  Still, I'd fancy MSU's chances, at least- the UM game gives them a lot of preparation for Auburn, and Boise State's only good victory was over #10 at the time Va Tech- and that was 33-30.  MSU doesn't beat itself and takes advantage of opponent's mistakes, two things that will serve it well going forward.  That, and it has victories over the #11 and #18 teams (at the time)- at least we're in the conversation, and we can control our destiny.

For future reference, I'd have a better time understanding your 'complicated point' if you:  a) refrained from the cheap Freudian slips, and b) offered even a smattering of support/evidence for your 'point'.  You know, like so many of the posters do when marshalling reams of statistical evidence to prove that UM is a good 5-2 football team.  I'd bet $20 you couldn't even name Auburn's coach without looking it up.

Blue_Sox

October 18th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^

Are you sure about that? I'm assuming you are referring to national title hopes. Aside from the fact I think it is highly unlikely MSU goes undefeated, even if you do and 2 others do as well (Oklahoma, Oregon, Auburn, Boise, heck, even a 1-loss Bama) you will not be going to title game based on your strength of schedule and general lack of respect for MSU nationally. That is not what I would call controlling your own destiny.

SpartanDan

October 18th, 2010 at 11:13 PM ^

Our remaining schedule is Iowa (which will be a tough game) and four of the conference's bottom five. If I'm feeling especially pessimistic, our chances of going unbeaten are 1 in 4; realistically I think more like 35-40% (a little less than 50-50 at Iowa, 85-90% that we win the other four).

I do think we're likely to end up on the outside looking in if it ends up three BCS unbeatens (preseason polls having a lot to do with that, although depending on who it is it might be the right call even if it happens for the wrong reasons). But there's a good chance we'd overtake Boise or TCU should it come to that, and I don't think there's any way a one-loss Bama gets the nod over an unbeaten MSU (the SEC really isn't that much stronger than the Big Ten, strong enough that an unbeaten would get the nod but not a one-loss team).

UMICH1606

October 18th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^

I am all for giving Sparty their due. You guys have a good squad this year, but don't come in hear with your high and mighty with your "enjoy your who cares bowl" smack when the last 20 years Sparty was defined "enjoy your who cares bowl" Nice team, nice season, but how about they reel off a 3 year run anyway of 9+ win seasons, and nice bowl games before declaring national dominace? Was it 1990 that MSU rose up and had one of these kinds of seasons, not to be heard from much since?  Like, I said nice team, nice year, but forgive me for wanting to see how the next couple of years play out for you guys ok?

UMICH1606

October 18th, 2010 at 1:26 PM ^

No problem with your optimism at all, just want to see it repeated a few years. It seemed like they were starting to build something, and then had a dud last year. Next year will be a good test to your theories with the recruiting, and depth of the program, as far as players and coaches. They have a brutal schedule if I remember correctly, and losing a lot of quality seniors, and may even lose some coaches if Treadwell gets his own program somewhere.

Tater

October 17th, 2010 at 9:37 PM ^

I would love to see Michigan play Florida again in a bowl this year.  Florida is not oging to move the ball with Brantley, and Michigan should improve some by the end of the season. 

gebe659

October 17th, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^

MSU not only has a better record, but has played better than OSU so far.

MSU beat Wisconsin by double digits, and then Wisconsin handled OSU. And not just that, but MSU actually somewhat neutralized Wisconsin's powerful running game, while OSU got shredded by that same running game (especially in the first half).

That being said, I expect MSU to lose at Iowa, and maybe at NU or PSU.

MCGamechanger

October 18th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^

MSU did play Wisconsin at home and OSU travelled to Madison (one of the toughest places to play) at night.

I do think that MSU's rushing attack is better than Wisconsin and they could beat OSU depending on where it is.

Sparty will be Sparty though and lose a few games that they shouldnt

Token_sparty

October 18th, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^

After the MSU-Illinois game, their coach said that MSU was the best team they had played so far.  Keep in mind, they played OSU already, and kept it extremely close.  Right now, Team America: World Stanziball and MSU are at the top of the Big Ten standings, alone.  They meet in two weeks.  We'll have an answer to this puzzle one way or another.  And yes, OSU lost on the road at Wisconsin, but it was worse than it seemed- Wiscy took a big lead early and stiff-armed its way to victory.  OSU's listless play showed up at the worst possible time, and they're really out of the conversation until/unless both Iowa and MSU lose.

But really, projections are just guesses.  There's still a lot of football to be played.

Edward Khil

October 17th, 2010 at 11:08 PM ^

But here's my current dream bowl season:

Boise St. v TCU for the National Championship

Undefeated Michigan State against anyone else in the Rose Bowl (and the Spartans WIN!--THEY'RE NUMBER TWO!  THEY'RE NUMBER TWO!)

Michigan v Florida anywhere on New Year's Day (because Michigan owns Florida).