Revisiting Preseason Predictions & Definition of Successful Season
Before the season started, I had them going 10-2. I knew they had a young team, but I assumed it was a more talented & athletic team than years past so that would make up for it. It’ll be interesting to see how they close out the season. How’s your preseason prediction looking right now?
From your perspective, what does a successful season looks like for this team. Did it already fail due to the losses to MSU and/or Penn State? Would you consider beating Wisconsin on the road a marquee win? I’m sure everyone would agree a win over Ohio State would make it successful, but let’s say they lose to Ohio State, but win the rest of their games and the respective bowl game, finishing 10-3. Is that considered a successful season to you?
November 1st, 2017 at 5:45 PM ^
I give a "yes to all" as well--especially remembering that we went all the way through training camp with a quarterback, primary receiver, and primary TE--none of whom have been available for our losses, due to injury.
Reflecting upon the season so far, I think that has at least as much to do with how hurt we are as the amount of returning talent. It's not so much how much talent you graduated as how much you had coming back. And I think we had plenty. The injuries hurt.
10-3 under those conditions is a success.
November 2nd, 2017 at 2:14 AM ^
were we missing?
November 2nd, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^
Holy Crap! What has happened to the Michigan fan base. When did any season become a
"success" when you lose to Michigan St. and Ohio State (as sure of a thing as can be)?
November 2nd, 2017 at 9:50 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
I had this as a 10-3 season (PSU, Wisc and OSU losses and a bowl win), so slightly off that pace but still in the neighborhood.
If we can get to 9-4 (with the bowl) I'd say that's a successful season given the QB issues (Speight's regression and injury and the O'Korn experiment) and the loss of our best WR in Tarik Black.
At this point it seems more likely to me that we sneak out a win against Wisconsin rather than OSU, so we could still get to 10-3 with the bowl.
Regardless, I think I'm at the point where "just" 9 wins (including the bowl) would be disappointing but not enough to cause me to go all Maizen on everyone.
The reality is as a program Michigan has only had three straight 10-win seasons twice since the the early 70's and none since the late 90's, falling just short of that given the circumstances of this year and the decade prior to Harbaugh, would be cool with me. Foundation for future excellence is being built.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:36 PM ^
Agree with most of this, but when you go back to the 70s, 80s and 90s you have to remember that most of those seasons there were less regular season games and non-conference schedules were much harder (hardly any pushover, non-P5 teams).
10 win seasons today are the 9 win seasons of old. An 11/12 win season today would be more aptly compared to the Bo era 10 win seasons.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:28 PM ^
Great comment Spike Fan. Also they use to play only 11 regular season games, switching to the current 12 games around 2002.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
Due to parity, scholarship limits, earlier development and more leveled S+C programs/
Pretty sure there was a fivethirtyeight article on parity which I wanted to link, but I can't find it so maybe it was elsewhere.
November 1st, 2017 at 6:03 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^
We match up fairly well vs Wisconsin. OSU... not as much.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:54 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:38 PM ^
November 2nd, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
Yea but we always play them tough and it's at home. Of our last 5 losses only 1 was a true blowout...
lost by 3 in 2016
lost by 29 in 2015
lost by 14 in 2014
lost by 1 in 2013
lost by 5 in 2012
November 1st, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Losing the starting QB and a starting WR is worse case scenario. With that in mind 8-4 is the expectation. If Harbaugh gets us to 10 wins this year, including the bowl game, I'll recant all my criticisms of him and his decision making.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^
A VERY young team who damn near lost its entire defense, look at what offensive production needed to be replaced and factor in that Wilton got hurt early in the year anyone would be happy with 6-2.
That being said Im going to be happy with an 8-10 win season regardless. Every fan is going to beef up their realistic expectations thats why they call us fans. Realistically il take 8-10 wins and move onto next seasons predictions.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
People aren't upset necessarily because we're 6-2. They're upset because of how we've gotten there. We haven't looked particularly good or convincing in any game this year. We've looked bad in most of our wins and looked downright awful in our losses.
Five turnovers to MSU, and completely lifeless against PSU. No one could've reasonably expected national championships this year, but for the offense to have looked this bad thus far, that's what's driving people crazy.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
almost seems as if, if you look at the numbers offensively, that M lost it's starting QB, it's best WR out of a group of very young WRs & TEs and had a pretty gaping hole on the OL.
November 1st, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
the offense wasn't doing much even when they had their starting QB and 'best' wr.
November 1st, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
In three games, Black caught more passes for more yards than either Crawford or DPJ have through eight. So yeah, we can call him our best outside WR.
November 1st, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
November 2nd, 2017 at 4:17 AM ^
No team in the united states of america is going to look good against anybody when there QB play is below subpar. Look at FSU!!!. Your team starts at QB. It is by far the most important position and your team goes as that position goes. There are high school QB's playing at a higher level than Speight and especially okorn.
Without Barrett OSU is screaming for Meyers head because they would have easily have two if not more losses. People who think OSU is all that I say ya right. Look at how many points they gave up to PSU. When Barrett picked up his play OSU just looks better.
We lost last year because we did not have the stud QB. If we did we have a national championship IMO. You put D. Watson on Michigan and even playoff games would not have been close including Alabama. That was in Harbaugh's second year. You give this guy the studs and Michigan will romp through the Big ten east and beat OSU's ass and MSU's annually, but he has to have a stud at QB. A QB who is not only competitive but has the ultra talent to make most wins easy like everyone wants.
This team last week by enthusiasm alone spoke on who they want as there QB. Michigan has been playing with a huge anchor tied around them and it showed up in every game. Other teams respected the Defense but had zero fear of the passing game and knew Michigan had very little at QB.
Michigan will look more like what everyone wants when Harbaugh has a stud at QB.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^
I agree. I just want to beat them. Unfortunately JT Barrett and the O looks like all world beaters all of a sudden. Hopefully our offense continues to improve and the coaches have a great gameplan on both sides of the ball.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^
We won't beat OSU. OSU coming back against PSU was epic. Michigan hasn't played like that in over a decade.
November 1st, 2017 at 6:02 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^
Michigan has their best draft class in program HISTORY, and you have this expectation?
"I assumed it was a more talented & athletic team than years past so that would make up for it"
Man, it feels like you were setting yourself up for disappointment.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
Looking back, yes I probably set the bar too high with 10 wins. Alot of new faces on both sides of the ball, but I just assumed not much of a drop off (if any) considering their recruiting classes and another year of their players in the system. As things stand now, I'd be happy with 8-9 wins.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
It's funny seeing that you're getting upvoted because damn near everybody on mgoblog had the same prediction as OP, and trashed the users who were predicting things like 8 or 9 wins.
I predicted 8-4 and said "I hope we get to 9 wins" and was told that "9 wins would be a slight disappointment."
Maybe people will keep things like this in mind when predicting 2018... just kidding. That's never gonna happen.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^
gonna be at 8 wins going into the Wisconson game... if we lose to them and OSU I would not be happy.
And as for next year, with the way our running game is devoloping, if Peters turns out to be legit this is a national title contender.
November 1st, 2017 at 8:19 PM ^
Dude! We got thrashed 2 weeks ago then our offense looked decent against Rutgers and now you're talking about contending for a national title next year. We haven't looked like a complete and impressive team in a single game this year.
It took all of 10 minutes for somebody to make an over-the-top prediction for the next year.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
I'm much more concerned about progress than I am results. If the offense continues to improve at a rapid pace, we'll have a chance to beat Wisconsin and OSU. If not, we are in trouble.
The defense is better than could have been expected.
Even if we lose to Wisconsin and OSU and finish 8-4, the season can be considered a success if we demonstrate that we are on the rise and ready to kick some ass next year.
That said, beating OSU makes the season a success.
November 1st, 2017 at 3:57 PM ^
the msu loss was trash and can't be blamed on youth because msu is just as young so its tough to be overly happy with the season to this point. However if the team wins 3 out of its last 4 including a win over either wisconsin or osu it should be seen as an overall successful season. If they go 8-4, mediorce as hell and sort of dissapointing since it would be a really hollow 8 wins with likely zero wins over a team that finishes .500. Anything worse than 8-4 easily a dissapointing season.
November 1st, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
Context matters. When you play a schedule where 8 teams finish below .500 and 4 finish with winning records and you go 8-0 against the bad teams and 0-4 against the good teams its really hard to point at those 8 wins and say the season was a great success, especially when they weren't really blowout wins.
When multiple playoff teams every year include teams in the bottom half of average returning playing time being young only counts for so much anymore. But like I said 8-4 would be fine, how we compete against wisconsin and osu would define how close it is to successful.
November 2nd, 2017 at 12:09 AM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
MSU got lucky, they are maybe just as young but they lead the B1G with 19 fumbles on the year. We have has some turnovers but overall we have been pretty good at not turning it over this year. But that game MSU was perfect and we were as bad as you can be losing 5 turnovers to them. After that game MSU went back to normal and so did we, they were better that day but I sure as hell don't think they are the better team
November 1st, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^
IMO reclaiming the "Best College in Michigan" title from MSU would be a great ending to the season
November 1st, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^
First, we're going to need to round up three on-campus dairies. Perhaps we can get Washtenaw Dairy to branch out with a store on North Campus, one at the Union, and maybe one at South Quad?
November 1st, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^
November 1st, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
but we're a few hundred miles from AA, so that might be a problem.
November 1st, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^
Not likely, but Shane has had a good season, and if he has a great night on ESPN2 tonight in kzoo, you will see the Maizen Clown Gang post a subject tomm saying we would of been better keeping him. I hope Shane does well, he's a Michigan Alum, and Catholic league Alum so of course I'm biased. I'm also realistic, and have watched him for years now and I'm not sure he has ever thrown a touch pass under 70 m.p.h. Unless you ask his dad of course, and then it's simple: Boomer Esiason 2.0 . Go Blue! Get the Jug!
November 1st, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^