Revisit Aug 30 Season Prediction Thread Posts

Submitted by nyc_wolverines on November 25th, 2012 at 1:09 AM

Reviewed the Aug 30 "2012 Season Prediction Thread" given the propensity of posters mentioning "Oh, I expected 8-4".

Presented below are all predictions from the Aug 30 thread which stated a specific, numerical W/L result, sorted by highest losses on top so that we can quickly see who had the most accurate forecast. The median and mean were both 10-3 from the 81 post sample. 

Data per:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/2012-season-record-prediction-thread

 

Results:

1. swalburn 9 5
2. Moisturize 7 5
3. Logan88 8 4
4. EGD 10 4
5. smwilliams 9 4
6. MGlobules 8 4
7. Wolverine Pride 9 4
8. Owl 8 4
9. Clord 9 4
10. Michigan Arrogance 8 4
11. littlebrownjug 8 4
12. russale2012 8 4
13. Bodogblog 10 4
14. Ty Butterfield 8 4
15. Don 8 4
16. TXmaizeNblue 8 4
17. hart20 9 3
18. AAB 9 3
19. coldnjl 9 3
20. My name ... is Tim 10 3
21. WMUgoblue 9 3
22. Medic 9 3
23. gremlin  9 3
24. C Tron 9 3
25. M-Wolverine 9 3
26. VideoTom 10 3
27. Maize and Blue in OH 11 3
28. Trebor 9 3
29. brose 9 3
30. los 9 3
31. Committed 10 3
32. maizenbluedevil 9 3
33. Here2CWoodson 9 3
34. reshp1 9 3
35. bluebyyou 9 3
36. 03 Blue 07 10 3
37. MGoSoftball 11 3
38. Tyang 9 3
39. Magga Saraivah 9 3
40. mackbru 9 3
41. WingsNWolverines 9 3
42. Magnus 9 3
43. bacon1431 9 3
44. THISISMICHIGAN33 10 2
45. WolvinLA2 10 2
46. San Diego Mick 11 2
47. michfan6060 10 2
48. DIABEETUS 10 2
49. MGoblu8 10 2
50. Hoek 10 2
51. ChiBlueBoy 10 2
52. El Tigre 10 2
53. Stupid Flanders 12 2
54. Orlando BlueM 10 2
55. French West Indian 10 2
56. UMAmaizinBlue 12 2
57. Crable2thaGrave 10 2
58. TdK71 10 2
59. cheesheadwolverine 10 2
60. UMGooch 10 2
61. Daktah 12 2
62. yoopergoblue 10 2
63. MichiganMan20 10 2
64. burtcomma 12 2
65. Tater 12 2
66. Trobdcso 10 2
67. wolverine66fan 10 2
68. BlueNation 12 2
69. One Armed Bandit 10 2
70. jbibiza 13 1
71. Johnny Blood 11 1
72. MGoGolf 13 1
73. jasputan  12 1
74. JRuiz 13 1
75. evenyoubrutus 14 0
76. afternoondelight 14 0
77. snarling wolverine 15 0
78. philibuster 14 0
79. dj89 14 0
80. chandler mulhollin 14 0
81. TylerSinq 12 0
  Median 10 3
  Mean 10 3

 

Comments

Trebor

November 25th, 2012 at 8:16 AM ^

We weren't necessarily putting on an offensive masterpiece against Nebraska, but we were moving the ball with some competency, not going 3-and-out every drive and putting our defense right back on the field. And given when Denard went out, we had a first and goal at the 6, I think it's fair to say that the game certainly has a good chance to have a different outcome if he doesn't get hurt there. Or if Devin was capable of coming in for relief.

dayooper63

November 25th, 2012 at 9:48 AM ^

You do realize that we were in the redzone when Denard went out.  Furthermore, we were moving the ball against UNL and keeping their offense off the field.  They didn't score most of those points untill the defense got worn out with all of the three and outs.  I felt extremely confident before Denard got injured.  

OSU is a different situation, but if Denard played the entire UNL game healthy, we win, IMO.

rbgoblue

November 25th, 2012 at 10:29 AM ^

Looking back on the season, ND, MSU, NEB, NW, and OSU were all toss ups decided by 1 score or less.  We went 2-3 in those games as opposed to going 3-2 and finishing at 9-3.  Probably not reasonable to expect to win every toss up.  Injuries and everything else considered, it happens.

Canadian

November 25th, 2012 at 1:45 PM ^

This is the only way it would make sense... Go 12-0 in regular season, win B1G championship game, win the rose bowl (cuz we won the B1G, and their champ gets auto bid to Pasadena) and win the national championship game (because we are so great we play two bowl games in less than a week and win both). But yeah obviously he/she was a little off on that presiction

MichiganMan20

November 25th, 2012 at 1:55 AM ^

I predicted 10-2 with losses to Bama and Nebraska but I can't help but feel like we should be 11-1. Al Borges cost us 2 games with his playcalling and Denard going down against Nebraska basically lost us that game. Just wasn't our year.

TheGhostofYost

November 25th, 2012 at 2:10 AM ^

If anything, this year is a good reminder of how much luck and randomness is involved in a college football season.  OSU and ND seemed to have every break fall their way.  Same with the Nebraska.  Michigan?  Not so much.

ShruteBeetFarms

November 25th, 2012 at 2:31 AM ^

would be so shitty though. ND, Nebraska and Ohio were easily winnable. That's what is so frustrating.

Notre Dame - Denard's worst game ever

Nebraska - the great Bellomy experiment

Ohio- Borges decides to call plays with his head up his butt

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go punt my neighbor's cat.

uminks

November 25th, 2012 at 2:40 AM ^

Given the schedule I thought we would go 8-4 during the regular season.  Tough to win @ ND, NE and Columbus all in one year.  Eventually Hoke will build the talent level of this team to the point where we will start winning these tough road games. Though it may take a few more years. But if he keeps recruiting like he is we will have a very good team. Now I would like to see us snag some more 5 star skilled WR and RB's!

mikegros

November 25th, 2012 at 3:07 AM ^

.... were nearly wins, but neglect the fact that the MSU game was closer to a loss than any of those were to wins. On top of that, Northwestern was another loss without an incredibly improbable catch by Roundtree.  We are at least as close to 6-6 as we are to 10-2 or 11-1, if not closer.

 

Don

November 25th, 2012 at 5:32 AM ^

it doesn't make the losses to Bama, ND, NEB, and OSU any more bearable. I agree with grozzy—we're closer to 6-6 than we were to 10-2. Which makes it difficult to prevent the small slivers of doubt from creeping in, however irrational they might be.

LSAClassOf2000

November 25th, 2012 at 6:40 AM ^

It is interesting to revisit these predictions now if for nothing else to see what we thought based on essentially no data back in August. Thanks for sharing these figures, of course, OP.

One interesting feature of this data, I believe, lies in the subset of people who simply predicted the regualr season score(i.e., their prediction equalled 12) - those people averaged a prediction of 9-3 with a standard deviation of 1 game in either column. It doesn't mean much really, except maybe that when people disregarded the bowl for purposes of their prediction or did not use the default perfect season, they weren't far off the mark this year. It lends credence to the idea that subsets of the fanbase, such as MGoBlog regulars, have a good grasp of their team overall, even if we might be disappointed emotionally with 8-4.

Purkinje

November 25th, 2012 at 8:58 AM ^

It's sad that the offense took such a huge step back this year, because somehow, (I believe) the defense is even stronger. Despite the level of talent we played this year, we still have a top 20 rating on that side of the ball. And did you really expect the D to hold Meyer's offense to fewer points in the Toilet than it did their laughable squad last year in the Big House?

swalburn

November 25th, 2012 at 8:07 AM ^

I was pretty accurate.  I knew the schedule is brutal.  I thought we would be 8-4 at this point but that it would be good enough to go to the Big 10 championship game.  I had a bad feeling about Alabama and Notre Dame.  I still feel good about the program and think it is heading the right direction

the Glove

November 25th, 2012 at 8:50 AM ^

Let's face the facts, this has turned into a horrible year. Not just based on the fact of Michigan's mediocre record, but the 2 teams that we hate the most are undefeated. That's just rubbing salt in the wound. Thank God for Ohio's sanctions or I would have to be on suicide watch right now haha

Wendyk5

November 25th, 2012 at 9:23 AM ^

My fear is that we don't think big. If our goal is to win the Big Ten Championship, we're talking beating the likes of Indiana, Purdue and Illinois and oh yeah, we have to get past Ohio State, whose goal is to win the National Championship. Different mindsets. And I don't know if our "Win the Big Ten" mindset and all that comes with it can take on a national stage mindset. Recruiting a great defense is imperative, but let's not forget we need the Charles Woodsons, too.  (the big playmakers who change a game)

Njia

November 25th, 2012 at 9:34 AM ^

Even being undefeated is no guarantee of a spot in the BCS championship game if there are two other undefeated teams at the end of the season (and it's happened before, of course). Given the anti-B1G bias among voters (even Ohio wouldn't have been ranked #1 or #2 and they ARE undefeated) you have a recipe for disappoinment. There's really only one goal entirely within the sphere of control of the team, and that's the B1G Championship. 

bronxblue

November 25th, 2012 at 9:10 AM ^

Good stuff.  The season basically played out the way most expected - Alabama was a legit loss to most, ND and OSU were close games on the road, and Nebraska was the only real surprise-ish, but winning on the road in Lincoln even with Denard would have been tough.  As many noted, this year's record was probably going to be worse even if the team was better than last, and 8-4 with a bowl game looks about right.

UMgradMSUdad

November 25th, 2012 at 9:18 AM ^

The Defense played well enough to win every game except Alabama.  I don't think anyone was expecting the Offense to have so much difficulty scoring points. Except for FGs, the special teams were a liability this year, too. Most of us worried about the D-line without Martin and RVB, but there wasn't as much as a fall off as expected.  The real problem was the O-line and the receivers. 

TXmaizeNblue

November 25th, 2012 at 9:38 AM ^

But I would have rather been wrong on the record at 9-3, than right and lose to the Cheaters.

I can't believe the team going to the Championship game is a team that Denard had his worse game of the year against ( 4 atrocious picks) and we still were in a position to win that game at the end.

Tater

November 25th, 2012 at 10:22 AM ^

I always think the team is going to be the "leaders and best," and I always end up making excuses for them at the end of the year.  I haven't been right about the team since 2005, before I even knew about MgoBlog.  

Michigan averaged 3.08 losses per year under Lloyd Carr (40 in 13 seasons).  Unfortunately, many have equated three losses per year with "excellence" or "leaders and best."  I did it as much as anyone else, but I have always found myself making excuses for Michigan: a bad call here, a bad break there, too many injuries, etc.  

With the rise of the SEC, better depth in the Big Ten, the Big Ten/SEC bowl agreements, and the addition of the Big Ten Championship game, the typical Michigan performance since 1995 is probably going to result in four losses per year.  

That is NOT "leaders and best;" it is mediocrity.  It is what I hoped Michigan would avoid when they decided to hire a coach with a contemporary offense.  

The bottom line is that after all of the excuses and all of the rosy predictions, we are looking at a very realistic chance of a five-loss season from David Brandon's hand-picked staff.  

For some reason, David Brandon, like many Michigan fans, doesn't understand that it is possible to have a contemporary offense and a great defense.  Ohio and ND are doing just that, and are currently undefeated.  

Al Borges is going to get two five-star QB recruits to work with next year, Devin Gardner and Shane Morris.  If Michigan is ever going to transcend the last twenty years of mediocrity and once again become a truly elite team, it's time to take the handcuffs off of Al Borges.  It's time to let the "mad scientist" come out.  

Sadly, though, for too many Michigan fans, and for David Brandon, "mad scientist" means the coach passed on first down twice in one game.  Sorry, but that isn't going to cut it.  We are going to need to see the field spread out a lot more.  It is more than possible to spread the field within Borges' base offense.  

Michigan is going to have to understand the apparent paradox that it is easier to run up the middle if you spread the field out.  They are going to have to look a hundred miles west and a couple of hundred miles south and realize that the spread does work in cold weather.  

Then, they are going to have to give Al Borges permission to do whatever the fuck he wants.

MGlobules

November 25th, 2012 at 10:58 AM ^

there was ONE coach in all college football, IIRC, who had had as good a record as Lloyd over a comparable span: Tenneessee's Phil Fulmer. Fans ask too much. 

Now, I can tell you flatly that I HATED the way that Lloyd played so conservatively, taking a knee two minutes before halftime, etc. But the guy succeeded in Hall of Fame fashion.