Remaining spots/recruits

Submitted by FingerMustache on

I've been a bit surpised with the recruits that have been targeted lately, and specifically the positions. Hoke apparently has been telling recruits that he expects the class to get to 26 (I'm quite curious to see how we get there?!?). So we have 10 spots left. Based on the way we've been recruiting and giving out offers lately, I expect the target distribution for the remaning spots to look something like this:

QB: 1
RB: 1
FB: 1
Olineman: 2/3
WR: 1
DE: 1/2
DT: 1 (at least according to Danny O'brien)
S:1

Personally I dont completely agree with this strategy.

QB: I don't really think we need to grab a QB (despite what happened in recent history, that caused Sheridan into the starting spot). When the 2012 class gets on campus, denard will have 1 yr left, gardner will have 3 yrs left, bellomy will have 4 yrs left. With the exception of Zeke Pike or Gunner Kiel, anyone else we get is likely to be past over by Shane Morris (assuming he stays committed)

RB: We have a boat load of RB's on scholarship. Unless we can land an elite guy (Dunn, maybe Garmon), I think we can hold off until next yr. RB is a position where a freshman can come in and play. It really doesn't make sense to me to take a RB just for the sake of having one in the class.

FB: While it seems that FB will have an increased roll in the offense, I would only devote a scholarship here if Hopkins can't fill the role.

OLine: Although we already have three olineman committed, I think we need a minimum of 3 more.

WR: I feel like I am far more terrified about our WR depth than most people. When the 2012 class gets on campus, the WRs will be: Roundtree, Terrence Robinson (if he doesn't transfer), JeRon Stokes, Jeremy Jackson, Drew Dileo, Jeremy Gallon, and Jerald Robinson. At least three of those guys are slot receives, and only one of them has accomplished anything on the field thus far. It's a bit late at this point, but I would have liked us to have recruited this position harder, and grabbed at least 2.

DE: We have Pharoah Brown, Tom Strobel, and Mario Ojemudia committed (im assuming Godin is a DT). When this class gets on campus, we will also have: Roh, Black, Beyer, Rock, Wilkins, and Heitzman. To me that is a lot of players for two spots on the field. I don't see how we can afford to take more DEs, with the exception of elite guys (Washington and Odenigbo). I personally am not entralled with Wormley.

DT: If Danny Obrien was right, and the coaches are only looking to take one more DT, then I am terribly confused. I think at least two is a must.

S: We could definitely use a true FS

 

The group of most likely candidates (or at least the ones I can come up with off the top of my head) are:

QB - Maty Mauk, Devin Fuller, Austin Appleby

RB - Brionte Dunn, Greg Garmon, Alden Hill (FB?)

FB - EJ Fatu, Sione Houma

OT - Jordan Diamond, Kyle Kalis, Andrus Peat, Blake Bars, Adam Bisnowaty, Chris Muller, Eric Olson

WR - Dwayne Stanford, Aaron Burbridge

DE - Chris Wormley, Adolphus Washington, Jordan Jenkins, Ifeadi Odenigbo

DT: Ondre Pipkins, Danny Obrien, Jaleel Johnson, Sheldon Day, Aziz Shittu

S - Jarrod Wilson

 

 

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:03 PM ^

A career ending injury of off-field issue can occur at anytime.

If anything unexpected happens after signing day, there's not many alternatives.  When RR lost out on Pryor and Mallet transferred we had no other options.  Now I don't expect that to happen again, but again, the risk is there.

There's other hypotheticals that cause us to lose QBs.  What if Gardner hates the new offense and doesn't want to sit behind Denard again in 2012 and up and transfers.  Then Denard gets hurt.  Now your starter is Bellomy and you're a big hit away from a walk-on QB again.

Finally...Morris is 16.  At this stage Ricardo Miller was considered a likely 5-star WR and Marvin Robinson a likely 5-star Safety.  Now these guys are on the roster but not much is expected from them in the near future.

Again...its extremely risky to count on a guy this young and this far from enrolling at UofM.

 

Mr Mackey

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^

Small point - Morris would be coming in the fall of 2013. And I'm sticking with the opinion that we should try to get Devin Fuller, Mauk, or Appleby if he earns an offer, or none.

Morris is like all of us. A huge Michigan fan, and he's not going anywhere. We would secure our future by giving him a good o-line rather a good backup

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:05 PM ^

There was a time where guys weren't offered until their senior seasons.  There's plenty of time left to evaluate seniors who aren't yet considered top 20 national talent, but could make great QBs in college.

Don't get me wrong, I think Morris will do great at UofM, I just think you have to acknowledge that expectations might not be met.  That's just how recruiting works.

Mr Mackey

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:12 PM ^

Yes, I completely agree. Anything can happen.

But recruiting is also taking calculated risks. We need to get strong players on OL and DL, and it could be that the coaches think all the scenarios you and other posters have outlined are extremely unlikely (it's not very likely that Bellomy will be forced to start anytime soon), and take a risk by passing on one this year.

That being said, the coaches obviously are on your side, as they have said they want a QB. So they're being safe, which is never a bad thing.

personally, I'd be ok either way, because both sides make sense to me.

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

1 QB - There is an entire season of football before signing day.  I believe they'll keep evaluating offer later.  Bellomy was recruited over a matter of weeks.

1 RB/FB - I think they take 1 big back.  Dunn or Hill look most likely.

1 WR - I believe Stokes, Jackson, Dileo, J.Robinson can form a solid WR group, but not taking a WR 2 years in a row is risky.

3 OL - Still a huge need on the roster, even with 3 commitments.

1 DT - Hopefully Pipkins.

1 DL - Wormley or Washington or O'Brien or...

1 S - Hopefully Wilson

That's 8.  If you want to assume a couple more, then I think its first come first serve between elite prospects regardless of if its RB, WR, OL, DL or DB (I'd say QB and LB will be full after all the above).

 

DennisFranklinRules

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:48 PM ^

Since we are all shooting in the dark...

RB/FB:  I think they offered Hill b/c they dont think they have much of a chance with the other running backs and want to really focus on Ohio for now and future.

DL/OL:  They have several 4+ star highly nationally recruited guys lined up.  Some will go elsewhere.  Best to keep them all in play

DE:  They really like Wormley

S:  They really like Wilson -- turned away the two corners to focus on him

QB:  Do need a QB in each class

WR:  This one I cant figure out.  They definitely need a big receiver and other than Stanford and Burbridge, there doesnt seem to be any heat here -- they are listed for several of the top guys, but they sure dont seem to be visiting, tweeting or thinking GBOD.

 

 

turtleboy

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:51 PM ^

we'll get the kids with the early timetables. Some kids may advance their timetables to get into the class, but the class will play itself out at this point (eligiblity issues aside.)

I think Diamond-Kalis-Wormley-Pipkins-Wilson-OT-FB-WR-2 best remaining.

I wont call Kalis a lock but I can't imagine him going to a school where Strobel and Wormley are not.

Eric Olson will decide sooner than most of the other linemen but who knows what he's thinking. This would give us 6 OLinemen for the class and might max us out. Last time we took 6 was 2005 but we're due. If Olson commits elsewhere then Michigan is still viable for Garnett and Banner, unless Peat decides faster.

The coaches continue to offer WR's and RB's so we'll take at least 1 of each. My guess is it's Kiel or bust for QB this class with the other talent we're shortlisted with.

If Godin stays a DT and Ojemudia moves to OLB then we might have room for another DE. I wonder about our 2012 DT depth too, if Godin puts on 10+ then Pipkins can play backup and Godin can play 3rd string straight away. Maybe they intend for 1 of the 2011 linemen to move to DT.

I'm not sure Washington and Stanford are very high on Michigan yet just because they've skipped planned visits several times now even though it's essentially a day trip, while Andrus Peat flew out from Arizona just to check us out. It shoudn't be that difficult if they're really interested. Time will tell. Get Washington and Garnett on campus and then we'll see, we already did with Peat.

 

 

ken725

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:18 PM ^

There were serious talks about Rock and possibly Heitzman playing inside in college.  The OP also had Wilkins listed as a DE, but the official roster has him listed as a DT.  If Rock or Heitzman and Wilikins are set to play DT then out depth at DE is thinner than DT.  The thing with our DT depth is that we are missing a truly elite player.  Hopefully BWC steps up this year and for all accounts it seems like he is ready for a break out year.    

turtleboy

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:32 PM ^

but I begrudginly believe Wilkins will be a 5 tech DE. We'll have a top prospect in Campbell for 2012 with a full year of 3 Dline coaches on him, and it's been a tossup all spring for Campbell or Washington to start. 2012 we'll likely only have Richard Ash as a true DT backup unless (fi) Chris Bryant or Gary Yerden moves to DT. Both played both ways in High School. Tony Posada might take reps on D in 2012 because he's shorter. Pipkins is ready to play right now, though. I think Wilkins will be 1st choice backup DE next year.

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:45 PM ^

That trying to identify positions for the young DL is extremely premature.  Most of the NT types are elite enough that they could move to 3-tech a la Martin.  Most of the SDE types could bulk up to DT.  Some WDEs could bulk up to SDE.

Until these guys arrive on campus and have a chance to fill out - who knows.

All I'm sure about is that after Martin and Van Bergen depart, we're very light on proven linemen outside of WDE (where Roh and Black aren't even THAT proven).

 

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 4:36 PM ^

But he is good enough to play either NT or DT.  But yeah, WC is the 3-tech is what everyone is saying.  If hypothetically he stinks and say Ash or Washington turn out to be impressive at NT then you could see Martin move around.

turtleboy

June 22nd, 2011 at 4:23 PM ^

redshirted so he'll have 3 years to put on 40 lbs to make it to 300. Until he weighs at least 290 I'm not going to look for him in the DT rotation. He could gain 15-20 a year and make it to DT by 2013 but this year and next year he's going to be slightly smaller than our DEs.

UMaD

June 22nd, 2011 at 4:34 PM ^

Is listed at 260 (which I believe is not an updated figure since last fall) and has 4 years of eligibility left. 

Furthermore, you don't have to be 300 lb to play at DT necessarily.  Michigan's had other DT's play at 280-290 range routinely.  So yeah, he's not going to start at DT next year, but things are wide open after Martin departs.  Adding 20 lbs to his freshman year weight doesn't seem at all ureasonable.

Bronson

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:54 PM ^

Excuse me, but regardless of Shane Morris' ability or lack thereof to sling the rock, with that bouffant of his, I think we can all at least definitively agree that he will be our dreamiest quarterback since Tom.  Ladies and gentlemen, that's what the prognosticators refer to as "intangibles."   Gunner Kiel, by contrast, has gingervitis.  Andy Dalton notwithstanding, that is a death sentence in this game.  As for Zeke Pike...his name is Zeke.  That's it, I don't need anything else.  Team Shane all the way.

flysociety3

June 22nd, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^

I think we need 2 true WR types...We lose Odoms, Hemingway, Stonum (might already be gone). Roundtree is a good receiver, but I dont see anyone else filling his shoes as a true, dependable threat, but I guess I dont know anything.  I think we need a home run threat at WR just as much as we need anything else in this class. 

FingerMustache

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:10 PM ^

i agree that we really need a downfield threat to stretch the field. Outside of Roundtree, none of the remaining guys have really proven themselves on the field yet. And roundtree is more of a possession guy than a true vertical guy.

interestingly, stonum could potentially sit out this yr and redshirt (assuming he's not kicked off the team), and come back for the 2012 season. Given the losses of odoms and hemingway, it might actually be better for the program to have him redshirt. I would also argue that having him redshirt, rather than face a multigame suspension (which i'd think is the minimum punishment he'd face), would be better for him, as it would allow him to put up bigger numbers, as the primary receiver in 2012, and improve his draft stock.

turtleboy

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:16 PM ^

then for 2012 we'll have 8 receivers on scholarship, plus 5 TEs, and 8 RBs standing around hoping to block or catch an odd pass or 2. This includes losing our senior 3, but doesn't include attrition, we'll have attrition because our problem is too much depth at those positions. Some of the slots will change to wideouts.

FingerMustache

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:30 PM ^

first of all, of the seven WRs that will be under scholarship, 4 are slot receivers. you can't simply move one of the slots to the outside and expect him to be a viable option. Roundtree is the only WR who has proven himself on the field, and none of them is a true downfield threat.

If this class is going to expand to 26 (from 18), then I would expect at least some of the attrition to come at WR (terrence robinson, jerald robinson, jeremy gallon).

turtleboy

June 22nd, 2011 at 3:54 PM ^

this year then we have 3+1 or 4 (true) WRs plus Roundtree which is 5 viable wideouts. 3 remaining slot receivers isn't a big deal, especially if you take into account that we'll end up using 2WR and 2TE sets more often than not and running out of the I for half the game. The roster could survive losing a further true WR as long as it doesn't hurt the X-Y-Z depth.

 

Wolverman

June 22nd, 2011 at 4:09 PM ^

 Zeke Pike has been flat out terrible in camps he has attended. so much so  he is down to a 3 star QB and was called the most overrated player of the 2012 class.

 someone asked Whats the difference between a 2-3 star QB and a walk on... don't know? how big of a difference is there between tom Brady and Nick sheridan?

You want to know where scholarships will free up to finish this years class? If one of the incoming freshman get named the starting RB look for some of the sophs to leave. If Wille kicks even remotely descent look for the other scholarship place kicker to get bounced

Bobby Boucher

June 22nd, 2011 at 4:22 PM ^

Even though this is getting old... I really do agree with your WR assessment.  We should've taken one for the 2011 class.  Also, do we really have the ability to take 25????

althegreat23

June 22nd, 2011 at 7:25 PM ^

We should definitely take a QB. Remember in 2001 when Drew Henson left to play to baseball? We were stuck with John Navarre and it cost us a national title. What happens if Gardner gets tired of sitting behind Denard?