Remaining BIG Schedule and our Path to a Title

Submitted by YoungGeezy on

Tonight sucked and if I didn't do this, I'm not sure I would have been able to talk myself off the bridge. Today’s game was an atrocity, but Brady Hoke said it best: “The number one goal is to win a Big Ten Championship.”

Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss. If we can somehow put the pieces back together (a major IF after the past 4 games), we can still be in a position to win a B1G championship.

Humor me for a moment with this. Here are the current standings:
 

TEAM                      CONF     GB     OVR

#8 Michigan State   10-2      --       21-4
#1 Indiana                 9-2      0.5      21-3
#20 Wisconsin         8-3      1.5      17-7
#4 Michigan              8-4      2         21-4
#13 Ohio State         7-4      2.5      17-6
Minnesota                 5-6      4.5      17-7
Purdue                       5-6      4.5      12-12
Illinois                        4-7       5.5      17-8
Iowa                           4-7       5.5      15-9
Northwestern           4-7       5.5      13-11
Nebraska                  3-8       6.5      12-12
Penn State                0-11    9.5      8-15

 

After pulling up the remaining schedules of the top 5 B1G teams, I ran predictions on each matchups and labeled each matchup by 3 categories: Likely Win, Possible Win, Possible Loss (there were no Likely Losses). I then assigned three final conference records: Predicted Record, Worse Case Record and Best Case Record. Predicted basically assumed all Likely and Possible Wins Resulted in Wins, all Possible Losses resulted in Losses. Worst Case means the team only won the "Likely Wins", and Best Case means the team basically ran the table the rest of the season.

Obviously this isn’t a science, but I basically gave the benefit of the doubt to most of the good home teams (and was a little tough on Michigan). Even so, after seeing what other teams have to go through the rest of the year, I still see that championship in the distance if we win big games down the stretch.

*big games in bold
 

MSU (Currently 1st)

2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win
 

Indiana (Currently 2nd)

3 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Loss
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win
Mar 2  - vs IOWA - Likely Win
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
 

Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)

4 Likely Wins, 1 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 13-5
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win
Mar 3  - vs PUR – Likely Win
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win
 

Michigan (Currently 4th)

2 Likely Wins, 2 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6
(Worst case 10-8, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss


Ohio (Currently 5th)
2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6 (Worst case 9-9, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win

 

What say you MGoPeople? We ready to do this, or what?

EDIT: Typos have been fixed

jmblue

February 13th, 2013 at 8:17 AM ^

This is the first year we've been ranked in the top 10 since last century.  For a lot of people here, it's the first time they've ever seen Michigan basketball be so highly regarded.  They haven't learned that even really good teams in basketball lay an egg sometimes. 

People need to look at the big picture.  We have four losses in 25 games.  We all looked at the schedule before the year and saw that rough nine-game stretch from the game in Columbus to the game in EL.  People were saying things like, "It'd be miraculous to only lose three games in that stretch."  As it turned out, if not for a miracle we would have only lost three.  If we can get Jordan Morgan healthy again (maybe he should sit out PSU) that would go a long way toward shoring up some of our deficiencies inside.

 

michclub19

February 13th, 2013 at 7:41 AM ^

Looking ahead to the B1G Tournament, it is VERY important to get one of the top 3 seeds.  There will be a 4/5 matchup in the quarterfinals(!) between two of the above mentioned teams.  Its going to very hard for anybody to win 3 games in 3 days against the competition above so you want one of the bottom 7 teams on Thursday(Friday?).  And not even making the B1G semis is probably a surefire way to drop a seed or two given the other 4 teams that will advance.

814 East U

February 13th, 2013 at 8:08 AM ^

do people realize we are 1-4 vs. top BIG teams (1 W vs OSU and 4 L vs. MSU, OSU, IU, Wisco). I know we played road games but you eventually have to win a road game if you are going to consider yourself good right?

Soulfire21

February 13th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^

Right, we had the hardest schedule and now the other top teams hit their tough road schedules.  Michigan can definitely beat MSU and Indiana at home, and since they're separated by a tasty helping of Penn State twice, Purdue, and Illinois (though admittedly tougher maybe than I thought, but the game is at Crisler, so that's good).  We're, what, 29-1 at home in the past 2 years and we've got one of the most talented teams in the league, a 14-4 conference record is not out of the question.  Our team is young (something like 330th ranked, whatever) and that youth and inexperience showed on the road against top teams, but in the friendly confines of Crisler, a 14-4 record is attainable.

NYC Fan

February 13th, 2013 at 8:26 AM ^

GR3 was my favorite player on this team through January. I was a huge fan of how he just got things done and let his game speak for itself.  Since the calendar has changed to February he has the following stats:

34 min/pg

7/24 2pt fg

1/5 3pt fg

3.2 reb/g

1.5 ast/g

4.5 pts/g

Having our 4 play over 30 minutes a game while not scoring, rebounding or assisting is really hurting this team.  The thing that bothers me most is that I get scoring slumps happen, but I don't see any hustle or emotion from him and others.  Outside of Burke, McGary and Hardaway Jr, no one else looks to really care out there.  Stop talking about these kids being tired after having 4 games in 10 days.  Not sure how any of you expect a team to play in the Big Ten Tournament where 20 year olds are expected to play on back to back days.

Here is to hoping GR3 reverts back to form come March.

 

I Like Burgers

February 13th, 2013 at 10:50 AM ^

I don't know if the grind of the season is catching up to him as a freshman, if he's sick, or if he's just intimidated by better competition, but he just looks out of it.  I constantly see him just jogging back on defense, standing flat flooted under the rim while opppsing players jump over him for rebounds, and just standing around on offense.  And considering he's gone from 41 to 33 to 21 min in the last three games, it appears JB is reacting accordingly.

Wolverine Devotee

February 13th, 2013 at 8:44 AM ^

Remember people, anything can happen. We looked down and out last year and state lost 2 straight games the last 2 games of the regular season to give Michigan the title.

Michigan must win out. Period. If they want to keep hopes alive. Need some help along the way. Michigan has a very realisitc shot at winning the title.

We need state to beat indiana, lose at ohio and then we take them both out at Crisler to even both records at 4 losses. That's how I think we can get the championship.

woomba

February 13th, 2013 at 8:46 AM ^

is to hope for a 3 or 4 way tie similar to last year.

I think Michigan can go 5-1 to round out the final 6 remaining games to finish 13-5.  In order for MSU and Indiana to be in the same boat, they'll need to drop a few expected win each...yeah, will be a tough order this year.  

That loss to Wisconsin really sucked :|

graybeaver

February 13th, 2013 at 9:30 AM ^

The problem is going to be depth. Morgon has a nagging ankle injury and Horrford is a bust. Trey Burke doesn't have a backup. I bet every guard on Indiana, MSU and Ohio state are better than Spike. Glen Robinson Jr is regressing instead of improving. Levert and Staukus are horrible at defense. Hardaway doesn't have a backup either. For some reason coach B isn't coaching very well either. Its no secret that MSU has struggled against the zone this year, but Michigan didn't try playing the 1-3-1 until the game was essentially over. Michigan needs another year or two of elite recruiting classes before they will have quality depth and the experience they need tob win a national title. OSU, IU, and MSU have had multiple elite classes. Michigan has only had one in the last ten years or so. The only way Michigan can recover is if they get healthy and everyone starts shooting good again like earlier in the year. This team can't beat elite teams unless they score at least 70 + points. The defense is just not good enough on a consistant basis.

jrblue

February 13th, 2013 at 11:33 AM ^

...and has an offense.

In the Big Ten, that means Indiana and Mich. State.

I am not convinced, with the disappearance of GRIII and the lack of creativity (assists) of late, that we can win against either of those teams on a neutral court.

 

snarling wolverine

February 13th, 2013 at 7:50 PM ^

I bet every guard on Indiana, MSU and Ohio state are better than Spike.

Why pile on Spike? The kid has only seven turnovers all season (against 19 assists). He's shooting 39% from downtown. I think he's okay as a spot backup. He gave us some good minutes against Ohio and Wisconsin last week.

hvsiii

February 13th, 2013 at 10:22 AM ^

I think this path has been blocked by an avalanche of bricks, missed assignments and lack of confidence.  I just want this team to find their mojo before it is too late.

Warrior-poet

February 13th, 2013 at 11:19 AM ^

Against state is a recipe for disaster. I don't see a lot of movement from GRIII, Nik or Hardaway. This makes the offense stagnant. On Defense one of the biggest problems was getting abused in the rebounding dept. can't give a team that is shooting well 2nd and 3rd chances. Quite honestly that boils down to effort.

MGoVictory

February 13th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^

The OP's outlook seems quite pessimistic in my opinion.

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win

Agree.

Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win

Possible win? Seems like a likely win to me. Michigan already beat Illinois by 14, at Illinois.

Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win

Agree.

Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss

I would clasify this is as a possible win.  Yes, Michigan lost to Michigan State. Playing at home will probably be a different story. Duke, for example, lost to North Carolina State by 8 then a few weeks later beat them by 13.

Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win

I'd call this a likely win.

Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss

As with Michigan State, playing at home will be different. I'm saying possible win.

So, I'd think all of Michigan's remaining games are possible wins or likely wins.

4 Likely Wins, 2 Possible Wins

Predicted Conference Record: 14-4

 

LSAClassOf2000

February 13th, 2013 at 1:54 PM ^

As the ratings stand right now, here's how Massey would project the conference:

TEAM EST. WINS EST. LOSSES
Indiana
26 5
Michigan 26 5
Michigan St 25 6
Wisconsin 17 14
Minnesota 17 14
Ohio St 22 9
Illinois 21 10
Iowa 19 12
Northwestern 16 15
Purdue 14 17
Nebraska 13 18
Penn St 9 22

At least for our own remaining games, that record (again, estimated) and a potential share of the conference is entirely feasible at this point (if not better). Much can still happen. We will have one more dicey week at the beginning of March to end the regular season anyway, but those games are at home and we have two weeks or so to turn recent learnings from this stretch into some pretty favorable results. Having about a week's break coming up here hopefully gives everyone time to rest some as well.

Kaminski16

February 13th, 2013 at 2:23 PM ^

MSU has to play Indiana in Lansing, at Columbus, and then at Crisler. They won't win any of those games. We need to win out and Indiana has to lose a game besides that against us or MSU. Big Ten Champs. 

Hail2Victors

February 13th, 2013 at 10:32 PM ^

Last night definitely makes me wonder about the fight in this team.   However, the home court advantage in the Big 10 is HUGE.   It wouldn't surprise me to see them win all 6 of those remaining games.  Like Izzo said after the game last night, MSU played their best game of the season and Michigan definitely played their worst.

From what I've seen, Indiana is the best team in the conference.  Two weeks ago, I would have said Michigan was right with them.    Their 3 losses were at 3 of the toughest places to play period.  Once games go to neutral sites for the Big 10 tourney and NCAA tourney, it will be interesting to see how they do.