Remaining BIG Schedule and our Path to a Title

Submitted by YoungGeezy on February 13th, 2013 at 12:48 AM

Tonight sucked and if I didn't do this, I'm not sure I would have been able to talk myself off the bridge. Today’s game was an atrocity, but Brady Hoke said it best: “The number one goal is to win a Big Ten Championship.”

Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss. If we can somehow put the pieces back together (a major IF after the past 4 games), we can still be in a position to win a B1G championship.

Humor me for a moment with this. Here are the current standings:
 

TEAM                      CONF     GB     OVR

#8 Michigan State   10-2      --       21-4
#1 Indiana                 9-2      0.5      21-3
#20 Wisconsin         8-3      1.5      17-7
#4 Michigan              8-4      2         21-4
#13 Ohio State         7-4      2.5      17-6
Minnesota                 5-6      4.5      17-7
Purdue                       5-6      4.5      12-12
Illinois                        4-7       5.5      17-8
Iowa                           4-7       5.5      15-9
Northwestern           4-7       5.5      13-11
Nebraska                  3-8       6.5      12-12
Penn State                0-11    9.5      8-15

 

After pulling up the remaining schedules of the top 5 B1G teams, I ran predictions on each matchups and labeled each matchup by 3 categories: Likely Win, Possible Win, Possible Loss (there were no Likely Losses). I then assigned three final conference records: Predicted Record, Worse Case Record and Best Case Record. Predicted basically assumed all Likely and Possible Wins Resulted in Wins, all Possible Losses resulted in Losses. Worst Case means the team only won the "Likely Wins", and Best Case means the team basically ran the table the rest of the season.

Obviously this isn’t a science, but I basically gave the benefit of the doubt to most of the good home teams (and was a little tough on Michigan). Even so, after seeing what other teams have to go through the rest of the year, I still see that championship in the distance if we win big games down the stretch.

*big games in bold
 

MSU (Currently 1st)

2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win
 

Indiana (Currently 2nd)

3 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Loss
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win
Mar 2  - vs IOWA - Likely Win
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
 

Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)

4 Likely Wins, 1 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 13-5
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win
Mar 3  - vs PUR – Likely Win
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win
 

Michigan (Currently 4th)

2 Likely Wins, 2 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6
(Worst case 10-8, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss


Ohio (Currently 5th)
2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6 (Worst case 9-9, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win

 

What say you MGoPeople? We ready to do this, or what?

EDIT: Typos have been fixed

Comments

saveferris

February 13th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^

We are not winning an outright B1G conference title, true, but we are far from dead in the title hunt.  MSU has to pretty much run the same schedule gauntlet we just finished.  So does Indiana.

Last night sucked, no dispute, but let's keep perspective.  We played the top 4 teams in the conference, 3 of the on the road, 2 games going to OT, over a 10 day period and we came out flat.  Sparty comes to Ann Arbor in about 3 weeks after running through the Indiana / OSU meat-grinder.  Let's see how spry they are then.

We've put ourselves in a bad spot, but it's far from over.

MH20

February 13th, 2013 at 1:00 AM ^

I think based off of your lead-in explanation, you are predicting 12-6 for both Michigan and OSU?

(you have Mich at 12-5 and OSU at 12-8 for predicted conf record)

indywolverine

February 13th, 2013 at 9:47 AM ^

OSU lost at Illinois by 19 points. Duke lost at NC State by 8 then at Miami by 27. Bad games happen. This team took a night off. In all other games where they had a slow start, they fought back.

"But they're supposed to be getting better!" Well, other teams get better too. The competition isn't static.

I Like Burgers

February 13th, 2013 at 10:36 AM ^

If it were just one game, that would be one thing.  But its not.  Michigan is now routinely getting absolutely crushed in the first halves of road games.  That's not a hallmark of a team just having an off night.  It a sign of some serious issues and good teams are picking up on them and exploiting those issues.

Kilgore Trout

February 13th, 2013 at 1:13 AM ^

1. You have the um / Indiana game as a possible loss for both teams and seem to have counted it as a loss in each's predicted record.

2. Your predicted record for Ohio State has too many games.

3. I think a tie with msu and Indiana is very possible. I think um will get it together and win out. MSU will lose to Ohio State and Michigan. Indiana will lose to MSU and UM.

jmblue

February 13th, 2013 at 11:13 AM ^

They will probably be seeded in the Midwest regional (where the Sweet 16/Elite 8 are in Indy) but not necessarily to Auburn Hills for the opening rounds.  The first weekend's sites don't have anything to do with the geography of the "regions"  they're in.  We could be in the South region and play in the Palace.

mfan_in_ohio

February 13th, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^

Michigan beat Kansas State and Pitt, currently ranked 10th and 16th respectively, at a neutral site. Both are looking like 4/5 seeds. If you want to argue that they weren't ranked at the time, then I'll bring up the win at Minnesota.

Winning on the road is tough, especially when teams make half court heaves. Ask Duke, who had a similar experience at Miami. Or Indiana with Illinois. Or Florida with Arkansas. I'm fairly sure that Michigan is the only team in the country whose losses are all to currently ranked teams, and it is pretty rare that a team plays 4 straight games during the regular season against top 20 teams. By contrast, msu was coming off games against Illinois, Minnesota, and purdue, two of which were at home. Michigan just looked tired. The time off, especially being somewhat bookended by penn state games (like a vacation in itself), is going to be a big help, as will having the two toughest games left at home.

uminks

February 13th, 2013 at 1:15 AM ^

After this game, I doubt we will win the B1G. May be we can be a two seed but I'm thinking our opponents know how to play against us now.

I'm worried about an early exit from the NCAA tournament as well. Unless our team defense can vastly improve over the next 3 weeks?

smwilliams

February 13th, 2013 at 1:20 AM ^

Here are my predictions...

MSU (Currently 1st)

Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win (L)
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 13-5
 

Indiana (Currently 2nd)

Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win (W)
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win (W)
Mar 2  - vs IOWA - Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)

FINAL RECORD: 15-3
 

Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)

Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win (W)
Mar 3  - vs PUR – Likely Win (W)
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 13-5
 

Michigan (Currently 4th)

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win (W)
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win (W)
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss (W)

FINAL RECORD: 14-4

Ohio (Currently 5th)

Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win (W)
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 12-6

SEEDS:
1.INDIANA
2.MICHIGAN
3.STATE
4.WISCONSIN
5.OHIO

snoopblue

February 13th, 2013 at 1:22 AM ^

It was one game, We played much worse than we are, and they played much better than they are. We played sloppy: made bad passes, couldnt catch good passes, miserable in transition offense, would leave spartans wide open in the paint and on the wings.Appling looked better than Burke, that is not the case on most nights. They do have the best defense in the Big Ten, and if their shots arent falling they have three guys down low that can score. We need to utilize the hook shot more with McGary, I'm not even sure JB knows how to teach it.

I don't care about winning the Big Ten after watching the game tonight. I care about getting at least a 2 seed now (sigh), fixing the issues this team clearly has and getting to the final four. A team with some size down low, an average point guard and solid defense can beat us in the tournament. That's just one bad matchup. Stauskas and Robinson need to come out of the funk, McGary needs to find an inside game, and Morgan needs to get healthy. We need to come out and fucking steamroll our next three games and show some fight

WingsNWolverines

February 13th, 2013 at 1:38 AM ^

big games we needed for an ouright title. Lost for whatever reason to crappy Wisconsin team, fell to IIndiana a game now that I really wished we would of won and finally hammered in EL by Sparty. We dont deserve a share or any of the title now in my opinion and if we end up sharing it with State that's even worse. I dont want to be co champions for the 2nd fucking year.

backtoblu

February 13th, 2013 at 1:50 AM ^

Of the competition, we probably have the easiest road ahead.  Guess we just have to wait and see if/when this team collects itself and gets back to it.

DK81

February 13th, 2013 at 1:57 AM ^

People need to stop overreacting. We lost to a good team on the road and got our butts kicked. Nothing like Penn st to get it going again. MSU took the first of four at home, we will fine.

funkywolve

February 13th, 2013 at 2:05 AM ^

Looking at the OP it's pretty telling how tough the first 2/3's of UM's schedule in conference play was.  Illinois, Minnesota, OSU, Wisky, Indiana and MSU all on the road.  Every other team listed in the OP has at least 2 road games remaining against those 6 schools and Michigan except Wisconsin.

At the beginning of conference play everryone said there was 2 keys to winning the conference. 

1) Stealing a game or two on the road.  UM definitely didn't against MSU, Wisky and IU but they walked out of Minny and Illinois with wins.  The teams in 1st, 2nd and 3rd right now have the 3 biggest road wins so far in the conference - MSU in Madison, IU in Columbus and Wisky in Bloomington.  However, they all still have some tough road games especially if you throw in Wisky and IU still have to go to Minnesota.

2) holding serve at home.  So far of the 5 teams in the OP only Michigan and MSU have held serve at home.  IU lost to Wisy, Wisky lost to MSU and OSU lost to Indiana.

If UM can hold serve at home they'll probably be right in the thick of the conference race win Indiana comes to town for the final game of the regular season. 

ryanlove12

February 13th, 2013 at 2:08 AM ^

Unless all hell breaks loose and we win outright. We gave up any claim to a title tonight if we share it. It's laughable, like how spatula tries claiming the football championship when they got blasted by a 7-5 Iowa team. I'm just hoping for a miracle tourney run to bit be embarrassed at this point. This team showed no fight and panicked on the road against a lesser in state institution. If we ran correctly, going to el would be like going to mount pleasant. There's a reason no other school in Ohio is relevant in any sport. Because Ohio makes sure of that. Sorry for the rant. In fucking pissed

oHOWiHATEohioSTATE

February 13th, 2013 at 7:22 AM ^

than football. B1G championships are nice but long runs in March are the bigger goal. We had a tough stretch, but we have plenty time to group. Most teams have a blow out loss or two. We should win our next 3 games handedly. More importantly we can use the next 10 days or so to get back to fundamental basketball and work our freshmen out of their slumps.

wresler120

February 13th, 2013 at 7:37 AM ^

How do we go from everyone on the board talking about a 1 seed and final 4 to we ate a terrible basketball team? We got blown out yes. We looked really bad yes. But, be real with yourself and understand winning on the road against the #8 team, at the Breslin none the less is very difficult. I'm sure we will take this as a learning experience and regroup from here. But to start writing them off and marking us down as losses against MSU and Indy at home is ridiculous. I'm sure many of u will be saying u knew it all along when we do win.