Relax - Here is what is going to happen

Submitted by Wolverine90 on November 22nd, 2010 at 3:04 PM

Been following UM for 33 years.  First recalled game was the Charles White phantom touchdown in 1979 vs USC in the Rose Bowl.

 

This next two weeks will be the loudest for the anti-RR bandwagon.  Then after a week or two, in mid-December, as UM begins preparing for it’s bowl game, reason and objectivity will return.  Everyone will come back to realizing that RR is going to get a 4thyear.  No question about it. 

 

While RR is definitely at fault for a very large number of missteps over the last 3 years, the man has also been subjected to an inordinately large number of misfortunes (injuries, youth, bare cupboard the first 2 years), many of which were not his fault, which have negatively impacted his ability to advance his team quicker.  This is the silver lining upon which the pro vs. anti RR bases will squabble during this off season.

 

But RR will return, and I am happy he will.  AD Brandon is a smart man, and this is what he will conclude:

  1. For all the negativity, for all the mediocrity, for all the losing streaks, the University of Michigan has made a 3 year investment in Rich Rodriguez in order to give him a chance, and the time, to get his system in place.
  2. For all the negativity, the investment has followed a positive trajectory – 3-9, 5-7, 7-5…
  3. While the defense has regressed to catastrophic levels, the offense has done the polar opposite, setting records.
  4. Jim Harbaugh is an attractive candidate.  He is a Michigan Man, and has done terrifically well at a school without the recruiting pull or football tradition of a major power.  However, Brandon will look at it this way – what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now from Les Miles’ success three years ago?  Further, what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now, with all world QB Andrew Luck, from RR’s success at WVU with all world QB Pat White a few years ago?  What is to guarantee Harbaugh would leave his cushy position at beautiful Palo Alto, at a job with little expectation or pressure, for the pressure cooker at UM?
  5. Returning RR for a fourth year is only fair, to see through on our three year investment and give him one more chance to finally put it all together, improve the defense, and continue the positive trajectory to 8-4 or 9-3 and finally back into the upper echelon of the Big 10.
  6. Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip.  It will show coaches around the country that if you get hired at UM, you are going to be given every chance possible to succeed, and patience will be shown.  UM fans with rose colored lenses will bark back that “but this is Michigan and any coach in the country would die for this job!”  Not true.  UM’s is a tough coaching job.  Incredible fan expectations, coupled with heated in-state rival recruiting wars (does Ohio State have to battle an in-state Big 10 school for it’s own players like we do with MSU?  Goodbye Gholston, Thomas, Bullock, etc., etc.).  Brandon will show the nation that he has his coach’s back this off season, and this will position Michigan favorably regardless if RR busts in 2011. If he succeeds, we all exhale. If he fails, we are positioned well for the next hire. If Harbaugh bleeds Blue as much as many say, one more year of waiting will not impact him, and he will likely not sign on for a long term deal anywhere else in the interim, knowing full well this position may possibly become available next year if RR fails.

Early prediction for 2011 – new D coordinator (GERG, while also not entirely responsible for the fiasco on D, will be the fall guy), and UM goes 8-4, seeing RR into a 5thseason.

 

 

GO BLUE, and until he is no longer our coach, I SUPPORT RICH ROD.

Comments

Wolverine90

November 22nd, 2010 at 6:57 PM ^

What planet are you from where reason and objectivity don't fly out the window for a significant number of fans after their team gets beaten badly, and then follows it by potentially losing again to their arch-rival?    Decades of watching this happen, of which endless times when I was younger I partook in it myself, and God forbid I mention it lest I be 'smug'....  Especially in light of the context surrounding RR right now, are you kidding?

NathanFromMCounty

November 22nd, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^

Thought I'd address these point by point to tell you why I disagree...

 

>>For all the negativity, the investment has followed a positive trajectory – 3-9, 5-7, 7-5…<<

 

But against what type of schedule?  Rodriquez was never really in danger of beating *anyone* good in the 7 win season and most of those wins were over dregs (Indiana, Purdue, Connecticut, an ND that looked terrible in the first half of the season, etc.).  In conference he's looked terrible, and that's the big judging stick.

 

>>Jim Harbaugh is an attractive candidate.  He is a Michigan Man, and has done terrifically well at a school without the recruiting pull or football tradition of a major power.  However, Brandon will look at it this way – what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now from Les Miles’ success three years ago?  Further, what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now, with all world QB Andrew Luck, from RR’s success at WVU with all world QB Pat White a few years ago?  What is to guarantee Harbaugh would leave his cushy position at beautiful Palo Alto, at a job with little expectation or pressure, for the pressure cooker at UM?<<

Quite a bit differentiates Harbaugh from Miles:  Harbaugh came into a program in disarray (1-10 in 2006) while Les Miles inherited Nick Saban's players.  Harbaugh's doing it at Stanford, which is one of the toughest places to get players qualified in the D I.  And Harbaugh is probably looking to get out of Stanford before the inevitable happens (no coach has *ever* put together more than 3 consecutive winning seasons at Stanford ever, according to my pre-season college preview mag).  And if Harbaugh's smart enough to know what happens to successful college coaches in the pro's he'll want to go to another program, and Michigan has the best connection.

>>Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip.  It will show coaches around the country that if you get hired at UM, you are going to be given every chance possible to succeed, and patience will be shown.  UM fans with rose colored lenses will bark back that “but this is Michigan and any coach in the country would die for this job!”  Not true.  UM’s is a tough coaching job.  Incredible fan expectations, coupled with heated in-state rival recruiting wars (does Ohio State have to battle an in-state Big 10 school for it’s own players like we do with MSU?  Goodbye Gholston, Thomas, Bullock, etc., etc.).  Brandon will show the nation that he has his coach’s back this off season, and this will position Michigan favorably regardless if RR busts in 2011. If he succeeds, we all exhale. If he fails, we are positioned well for the next hire. <<

*Shakes head saddly*.  You are well and truly reaching with this one.  For one thing, all coaches know that you get three seasons to show true progress (and I've addressed the record already as to why that isn't entirely progress, and coupled with the D you've got a situation of questionable progress) and you are gone (the people talking about "Seeing a complete class through" need to understand that those days went out with tail fins on cars). 

Secondly, a fourth season of Rich Rodriquez doing damage to the program's reputation makes it *much* harder to line-up the next hire (as it stands, the only true candidate we have left is Harbaugh, if RR does more damage we don't even have that). 

Michigan is a tough job right now, but I've seen plenty of "Ranking the D I Coaching Jobs" that place Michigan solidly in the Top 15.  And the righting for Recruits is not really that bad (the only truly top instate recruit that we've lost out on for next year's class is Thomas), and Penn State did it for years with Pittsburgh, and Iowa manages to contend the past several years in a state which has far fewer top line football recruits instate.

csam1490

November 22nd, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^

I'm with the OP. I'll point out we lost to Toledo two years ago. Beating teams we "should" beat this year is an improvement. 3 of our wins are against bowl-eligible teams, 3 against non-bowl-eligible teams, and one FCS school. Pretty typical for a mediocre BCS team, which is what we are. But it's improvement any way you look at it.

Also, Harbaugh is a good coach. But Gerhart was there for the 1-11 season, not a Harbaugh recruit. Neither were the *three* 5th-year O-lineman. In fact, Stanford's lineup this year is littered with Harris guys. I think they step back BIG next year.

If U-M hires Harbaugh, which wouldn't be terrible, our team will be better than Stanford's next year. But it won't be because of the relative coaching skills of Harbaugh or Rodriguez or the next guy Stanford would have hired. It will be because of the age and experience of the teams, something that people are pooh-poohing a little too quickly here.

SC Wolverine

November 22nd, 2010 at 7:50 PM ^

If DB fires RR, the likelihood of our offense regressing in 11 is greater than the likelihood of our defense not progressing if RR stays.  WIth Denard, Roy, and company just turning upperclassmen next year, this is the worst possible time to change our head coach.  Moreover, we absolutely cannot face a recruiting disaster this year, which might happen if we lose current commits with a coaching change (yes, I know Dee has said that will not factor, but others?).

NathanFromMCounty

November 22nd, 2010 at 8:01 PM ^

...as most of the O recruits other than D-Hart would probably stay.  The odds of decommits on the Defense would also probably be low as well if it were Harbaugh (though I'm not sure what some of the D-recruits thought of Harbaugh as I know both RR and JH both recruited Beyer, for instance).

The liklihood of the offense regressing isn't *that* high, even if we convert over (looking at the personnel and many of the people save Denard would work in a pro-style offense, and we have Tate or Devin as QB if we switched to a pro-style).

The odds of the D progressing under Rich Rod are pretty bad (he's had 3 years dog) so I'm curious as to where you are getting that.  When it isn't talent (and the number of 4 star D recruits is still pretty good) that results in a D this bad then its coaching and scheme which go directly on the coaches so a coaching switch should see the defense take a large step forward.

BigBlue02

November 23rd, 2010 at 1:49 AM ^

I hate to tell you this, but this defense is going to get better next year no matter who is the coach. That is what happens when all of the true freshmen getting time get older and bigger and make better decisions. If it gets good enough to compete with the big boys of the B10 is yet to be seen, but returning 9 starters on D as well as pretty much the entire 2 deep is always good. Can you name all of the seniors on the Defense? I bet you can count them on 1 hand.

michiganfanforlife

November 22nd, 2010 at 8:56 PM ^

inability to stop the same thing over and over is his death card. We all knew that misdirection play against Illinois was a good call the first time. The fact that it was wide open twice after they had halftime to draw it up and figure it out? Inexcusable. How about not changing a defensive scheme that gives up 1st down after 1st down, and letting the opposition run 34 times in a row all over your head (up the middle)? You can't blame a bad secondary on the inability to stop the run. That's crap.  I am sick of GERG and his horrible bullshit, and RR is just as responsible for hiring him.

RR gets one more year with a new D coach, and then he's gone. That's what's going to happen.

jonvalk

November 22nd, 2010 at 10:54 PM ^

We just need Fitz Touissant to get healthy.  It'll be like the Biakabatuka effect.  You know how many Buckeyes can't forget that name?  I live in stupid Columbus, I know.  They HATE the name Biakabatuka.  We just need someone with a name they will remember.  I suppose Robinson would also do, but I want one that sticks with you.  Touissant sounds like that would be one that would stick with them.

 

God, I loved that '95 game.  "Biakabatuka...Biakabatuka..."