Recruiting Projections: Too few spots left?

Submitted by Hill.FootballR… on May 8th, 2011 at 5:05 PM

I have seen a lot of peoples "wish lists" and projected class of 2012 threads here and at other Michigan Blogs. The main question I have is at what point do we start making some our offers non-committable ones like other schools sometimes do. Right now we have 10 commits. My best guess and general consensus around here seems to say we will end up with a class of around 20-22 with attrition, but right now it is at 18 assuming a D.J. Williamson transfer. 

Here is my problem though, every time I add up what I believe would give us my projected class I end up with right around 23 spots. I can't seem to get down below 23 no matter how I do it. This is where I am at right now:

1 QB - I am of the believe you must take a QB every year. Period.

1 RB - Hoke said he wants a RB every year and between Dunn and Garmon we are in on some very good backs.

1 WR - I think we need at least 1 receiver in this class. Honestly I could see us taking 2 but because we aren't offering very many and the best possibilities being Stanford and Burbridge I think we are planning on only taking 1 this year.

2 TE - Everyone thinks Ron Thompson is almost a Michigan Lock but unless this staff is counting Williams towards the 6 OL they have been said to want i don't think we have room for him. It is very possible that Williams is an OL recruit though.

6 OL - The staff has stated they want 6 OL and this is a major position of need. We have either 2 or 3 already, with names like Diamond, Denman, Banner, and Simmons on the top of my offer list.

4 DE - This is the position where I may be high at 4 DE. The real number may be 3, but with the two commits from MO and Brown yesterday, I have trouble believing that if we do in fact land Wormley as I hope we do, that we would not keep recruiting the likes of Washington, Strobel, Pittman and Spence hard. These are all highly touted Ohio and PA prospects and some of them have expressed interest in Michigan quite recently.

2 DT - Opposite to the DE position I may be low here. With Godin and Day expected to be major Michigan leans, or one even a silent commit, this puts us at 2 easily. If this is the case would Pipkins be left out of this class? This may be a case of we will take 4 DE and 2 DT or 3 or each depending on who commits first.

4 LB - Full

1 CB - We need a CB and there seems to be a lot of players who have interest in Michigan, Richardson would be the name that I would save a spot for at this point.

1 S - Lots of names to fill this spot at either DB position but I do believe we will take a total of 2 DB's especially with the recent offers to Foster and Standifer.

This give us 23 total.

 

The major point of this thread is to ask at what point do the coaches become extremely selective in who is able to commit. I don't love the idea of pulling offers but at this point it seems as though we are filling this class fast and can't accept everyone. I personally would like to see the coaches go hard after the big time players at this point. It is still very early in the recruiting cycle though so I was curious what everyone else thought. 

Comments

dennisblundon

May 8th, 2011 at 5:14 PM ^

That point is now and in my opinion we have been from the start. Hoke only offered really elite talent from the start, which is a bit of a change from RR some would say. Our coaching staff will now start to "cool" on some recruits at this point and start to focus in on the big fish at positions of need.

Hill.FootballR…

May 8th, 2011 at 6:10 PM ^

I don't want to get into the Hoke vs. RR debate but I agree that Hoke only offered the top end of talent this year. But among these offers there are major national recognition recruits and very good recruits. I am simply asking at what point do we even become more selective than we already are? It is quickly becoming obvious that we can't take everyone who we have already offered so at what point to we wait a bit for the ones that are higher on our "big board"? I agree with your use of "cool" on some recruits that is exactly what I am talking about. 

dennisblundon

May 8th, 2011 at 6:20 PM ^

Now is that time. We roughly have half of our class filled already and are in no pressing hurry to fill the rest, as it's a long way from February. At QB we are now focusing in on Gunner and at RB Dunn and a few other elites. I would like to see them go after a few receivers as well. The staff will not extend many more offers outside of the QB position and only if we miss on Gunner. Day and Pipkins are our main targets at DT and Diamond and Banner at OT. If we pull half of the guys I just named, I will dance in the streets.

Hill.FootballR…

May 8th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^

I think we are in solid position with Wormley, Day, Pipkins and Diamond but I agree I am very excited to receive a commitment from all of them. The names that will all make me "dance in the streets" are any and as many as possible from the following list:

QB: Kiel, Pike (I don't think he will end up at Auburn if the NCAA give them punishments),

RB: Dunn

WR: Payton

OL: Banner, Simmons, Denman, (Peat or Theus would make my year)

DE: Washington, Spence, Pittman

DT: J. Jones

DB: Richardson, Reeves, Wright, Shumate

FeelinBlue

May 8th, 2011 at 5:18 PM ^

i agree.

personally i dont think michigan has to get a QB this year unless its gunner or maty.

mich can target shane morris '13 instead of okay qb this year to fill the depth chart.

also, even if burbridge commits, he might end up going to a JUCO because of his academic issue.

and i can see Hoke&co taking only 5 OL's to really focus on blue chip prospects.

 

ChuckWood

May 9th, 2011 at 12:29 AM ^

Which makes sense because you can never have too much depth at that O line position.  Also says a little about the direction and focus of the coaches.  I love the fact that they're bringing size back to the field.  

My biggest concern is the defensive line.  If we can secure a few big boys our D will look pretty promising for 2013 and after.

ppToilet

May 8th, 2011 at 7:29 PM ^

What if Denard leaves early or gets hurt?  It used to be that I'd never really worry about QB at Michigan, but after the last couple years - I worry a lot about that position.  I know Borges et al are trying to deemphasize that position to some extent, but I also assume they will not put lightning in a bottle.

If there is a reasonably good QB out there (I agree about being selective), I'd like to see us get one...

MI Expat NY

May 8th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^

Obviously you can't predict injuries, but I don't think Denard leaving early is a concern.  Even if he has a great last two seasons, he's not going to be a first round NFL prospect. 

I do think it's nice to have four QBs on your roster, but it's not essential.  This isn't last year's qb recruiting, we should sign a top guy or none at all. 

ppToilet

May 8th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^

Here are some of the scenarios running in my head:

1. Denard has monster year.  Killer.  Can run a pro-style offense stuff.  Projects as a first round pick.  He jumps to pro ball.

2. Denard gets hurt.  Devin takes over.  Behind Devin is Sheridan-type.

3. Denard has good, not great, year.  Comes back for senior season.

4. Denard has mediocre (or crappy) year.  Devin starts running some plays and they put Denard in as a wildcard running back/slot/whatever position.  Rumor mill starts about Denard transferring.

Scenario 1 is something we all want because we'd obviously be awesome.  But without a QB in this class, that leaves quite a hole.  You're right of course, we can't predict injuries but I just can't discount the possibility.  He's such a good kid and they're telling him to stay in the pocket and every linebacker/lineman is going to be gunning for him.  Scenario #3 seems most likely to me.  #4 is not going to happen because ... well it just won't.

Not disagreeing with you and if I'm in Vegas, I'm putting most of the chips on Denard being around 2 more years.  Most of the chips...

umhero

May 8th, 2011 at 10:25 PM ^

You don't need to shout.

I agree they "plan" to take a QB this year and they "plan" to take six on the OL.  Also they like to take a RB every year.  They also need a few D tackles, a WR, a CB, and a safety.  On top of all of these needs, they are in the hunt for several 5 Star D ends.

This conversation seems to happen every year.  The only difference is because of our success thus far, this year the conversation is happening about six months early.  The coaches plan to do a lot of things but as the class fills up they may readjust their priorities.  If Washington, Wormley, and Spence all want to come they may choose to take one fewer at another position.  

If Simmons, Diamond, Banner, and Humphries all wanted to come, the staff might decide to add a spot in the class by not giving Mealer a fifth year.

I'm not saying these things will happen; I'm merely pointing out that we can't be absolutely certain until February.  Since the coaches have be flexible, I think we should be too.

Hill.FootballR…

May 8th, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^

I agree with the fact that they can add players to this class by taking away scholarships from 5th year player if a 5* decides he wants in we won't turn him away. But I do agree with Magnus in the fact that we won't add a player at the expense of taking a QB in this class or at least 5 OL plus Williams (which would then make it 6). I agree that flexibility is necessary and we definitely should not turn away a big time recruit. That is why I believe we should be very selective at this point knowing that we are in on a lot of big time prospects still.

Magnus

May 8th, 2011 at 11:36 PM ^

You can't be certain of anything until it actually happens.  That being said, the coaches want to take a QB and it would be silly not to take one.  Michigan has literally taken a QB in every single year since Rivals/Scout started keeping track, and there's absolutely no reason for that trend to change when the only quarterbacks on the roster are two guys who were recruited for the spread and a freshman we stole from the grips of Purdue.

I might be mistaken, but I think the last time Michigan didn't take a QB was in the class of 1997.  That's a streak of 14 years, so I'm pretty comfortable in my assertion that we'll have a QB in this class.

gajensen

May 8th, 2011 at 5:18 PM ^

I know that asking questions around here is more socially suicidal than joing the mathletes, but I have to ask the following:

a) How certain are we that DJ Williamson is transferring?  Why wouldn't he want to stay what with there being three seniors on the roster (including Stonum, and lord knows if he'll even play next year)?  The next year he could be a sophomore and in the regular rotation, right? 
b) Are there any other likely transfers?  I keep hearing that we're bound to lose 3-5 player, but is this just a projection based on previous years (and how much of that is due to coaching/system changes), or are there at-risk players to keep an eye on?
c) Are there any players that are at risk of having their scholarships pulled?  Does this happen often?  Any former walk-ons about to get awarded a scholarship?  

Thanks.  

NorthwesternFan

May 8th, 2011 at 5:23 PM ^

a) It looks like the coaches are telling him to leave more than it being of his choice. Apparently, he has bad hands, and is never going to see the field.

b) I'm sure we'll lose a couple of those tiny slot recievers. In this offense, I don't see them getting much playing time, if any - and there are waaay to many on scholarship.

c) Maybe Williamson, if he doesn't transfer

NorthwesternFan

May 8th, 2011 at 5:28 PM ^

I don't think they'll pull his scholarship - but it looks nearly certain that Williamson will be out next year, and if not, he'd be they most likely candidate. However, I think Michigan will honor the kids scholarship if he does in fact stay commited to the school.

Rasmus

May 9th, 2011 at 9:14 AM ^

to question (c) was: No, Michigan does not do that.

Saying he's the "most likely candidate" for something that has never and won't ever happen is pointless.

If they need to make room to make 23 (I agree with the OP that 23 is the optimal number with regard to positional needs), they are likely to cut some 5th-years loose. 

justingoblue

May 8th, 2011 at 5:44 PM ^

I would recommend searching the site for the consensus views on oversigning (and the rational behind those reasons) to really understand why people might answer that way to the question.

Basically, we don't take kindly to pulling scholarships (or putting subpar players on medical hardship scholarships) 'round these parts.

Zone Left

May 8th, 2011 at 5:26 PM ^

Transfers are always a big question when teams change coaches. All I'll say is that most players have probably got a good idea where they stand with the new staff and if they want to transfer, the time is now. That will give them a chance to meet some other staffs and find a new school.

FWIW, I don't think there will be more than a couple more transfers. Hoke, the staff, and the team's leaders seem to have done a great job keeping the team motivated.

Logan88

May 8th, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^

****WARNING****

I am not an insider. I have no connection to the UM football program but here are a few guys I think MIGHT be transfer candidates before the 2011 season starts:

  • Vincent Smith -- has not redshirted yet, from Florida, not a good fit for the new offense
  • Brandin Hawthorne -- has not RS yet, from Florida, buried on depth chart
  • Jeremy Gallon -- from Florida, only a Sophomore in 2011, slots being phased out
  • Isaiah Bell -- buried on depth chart; does he really want to play football?/motivation
  • Talbott brothers -- Terrence was already thinking about leaving and Terry has back problems which might limit his ability to play football

NOTE: I am not saying I want any of these kids to leave. This is merely a guess about guys who might be the most likely to leave.

allezbleu

May 8th, 2011 at 6:35 PM ^

i know you aren't saying let's cut these players or anything but it sure seems like you and others on this thread are hoping that players buried on the depth chart will leave.

let's not even speculate on players leaving if we don't have any legit sources or reasons for believing so.

we ARE NOT alabama

thanks.

allezbleu

May 8th, 2011 at 6:38 PM ^

i got pissed (sry for being pissed) because its not like you were talking about a guy like stonum leaving because of disciplinary issues, you were talking about guys who have done nothing wrong like hawthorne, gallon, etc. because "slots are being phased out" or "because they are buried on the depth chart"

The Name

May 8th, 2011 at 9:44 PM ^

He isnt saying that he wants them to leave, or that they should leave. He is just saying that here are some possible guys who might leave, and then giving a reason for it.

People get to senstive about not wanting to look like an SEC team with oversigning, gray shirting, ect...

Broken Brilliance

May 8th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^

Why do you assume this staff holds a grudge against players from Florida (or any other state other than MI or OH for that matter)? If you take a look at our offer map that was posted this morning this staff has offered like five kids from Florida for the '12 class

You also think slots and small backs are being "phased out" when it's become apparent that Drew Dileo has caught Borges' eye this spring. See also Borges' comments on Vincent Smith...something along the lines of "I've had guys that were his size be effective in the past" (that's what she said).

Anyways...I don't think we'll lose any more kids for the same reasons that Denard has mentioned when asked why he didn't leave... "We're family".

(Edit: I see now that you might have brought up the fact that players are from Florida due to the notion that they might get homesick and want to go home, that's still a redundant point because those players mentioned above have been up here for 3+ years, I think it's safe to say that they won't be getting homesick at this point.)

RioThaN

May 8th, 2011 at 6:20 PM ^

1) Unfortunately seems like Williamson will be gone, i haven't read anything official yet, but when this kind of rumors hit the blog they're often true.

2) Well, we can't really say right now, so far we've lost 3 players (Vinopal, Christian and Tate)

And we'll know more after summer practices, last year we lost Lalota and Emilien at the beggining of the season, when they found out they were buried in the depth chart, I won't call any names, but after the 2011 recruits arrive if some current players are leapfrogged by the freshmen there might be a couple of transfer requests.

3) Normally you don't pull an offer from a kid this is not Alabama, if someone (like Feagin, Milano or Cissoko) messes up, there might be scholarships pulled, but if not (and we all hope that) there's no chance, maybe a 5th year senior will not be asked to return, but they're all important in this team, I can only think of Terrance Robinson but then again, we'll have to wait and see, if you see him on the field this fall, there's a high chance that he'll be back for 2012.

Tater

May 8th, 2011 at 5:23 PM ^

Stonum will probably leave, and I would imagine a few future non-contributors will see the writing on the wall, too.  If they really want to sign someone, a scholly will appear.

dennisblundon

May 8th, 2011 at 5:39 PM ^

Hoke isn't Saban and Michigan isn't in the SEC. Coaches have given the players their spring evalutations and some will like what they hear and some won't naturally. Cullen obviously is one who wasn't thrilled with being asked to move to safety and some of our slot recievers will no doubt find a hard time fitting into the new offense. Coaches are not encouraging kids to leave in order to open up a scholarship.

Hill.FootballR…

May 8th, 2011 at 6:04 PM ^

Alright I didnt want to start a thread arguing over the exact number of scholarships available or one guessing who may transfer and for what reasons. We are not the SEC, we will not pull scholarships but in coaching changes there is normally some attrition and this is why it would be reasonable to assume a few more scholarships would be available next year past the 18 point.

Now to go back to the point of this thread. What do people think about my distribution of scholarships per position. I know some people don't think we should take a 3* or mediocre QB in this class but personally I believe we should always take 1 QB and everyone I trust in the recruiting world says we WILL take 1 QB this year. As for what a few of you said about Burbridge, I realize grades may be an issue but I still believe we need a WR in this class either way. The main point of this thread was to hear what everyone thought on what positions we may take, but mainly how SELECTIVE we are in who we accept commitments from this early in the process. The two positions where there seems to be a lot of talented interested players are on the defensive line (DE and DT combined) and defensive back for only what I think will be 2 spots (CB and S combined).

IMO I would like to go after Washington and Stanford hard and see how the tOSU investigation plays out before we fill this class and have to turn away big time recruits. I was curious as to what people thought were some big names that we should go after hard. Now that we have the luxury of taking our time to fill the rest of this class unlike Hoke and co. had in 2011. 

jbibiza

May 8th, 2011 at 6:07 PM ^

The OP's list is fairly comprehensive, but I have a few suggestions:

1 QB

1 WR

2 TE not including Williams  (Funchess is a hybred TE/WR ?) 

5 OL including Williams

3 DT 

2 SDE Godin & Wormley

2 WDE

4! LB

1 FS

1 CB/S

That's 22 and you can replace one DT with a stud RB assuming that Godin can move inside.