Recruiting numbers crunch

Submitted by TK on November 15th, 2018 at 2:57 PM

This seems to happen every year, and every year it works out, but it’s going to be interesting to see how we end this class

Currently we have 24 commit. If I squint my eyes really hard, I could see maybe four more spots available. Maybe. That would be 28 commits.

Left on the board as realistic options:

1. A WR.  Because we really need one

2. DT Karlifitis

3. DE Harrison 

4  CB Jalen Perry

5. OT Keegan or Ike

6. LB/Athlete Crouch

7. LB Deloach

Probably a few more I’m missing. 

 

Comments

Logan88

November 15th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^

Take 'em all and let Harbaugh sort 'em out.

Seriously, though, these things always work themselves out. I imagine a few of the guys currently committed might end up not signing with UM.

*cough* Eric Gray *cough*

DrMantisToboggan

November 15th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

Eric Gray is supposed to stick if he makes it up for a game, which he is scheduled to do this weekend I guess.

I'd look more to the current roster to see where the spots will come from. 

Singleton, Hudson, Taylor already left. I would assume O'Maury Samuels is a great candidate to transfer as well. Brandon Peters probably has one foot out the door. Ron Johnson, J'Marick Woods (I've been hoping for a move to Viper, which would change his PT outlook presumably). A lot of scholarship guys buried on the depth chart with highly rated underclassmen/recruits poised to pass them.

Reuben Jones and Nolan Ulizio will probably not be asked back for a 5th year.

Then you have to consider the non-seniors who are most likely gone to the NFL: Gary, Bush, Hill, Long. Maybe Gentry and maybe Patterson (though I'd guess Patterson and maybe 2 of Gentry, Long, Hill come back).

FatGuyTouchdown

November 15th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^

Agreed. Not to mention, I think any commit that hasn't been mentioned in the recruiting roundups as of recent and hasn't made it up to campus yet, could be looking around. There are a couple in mind that I believe have not visited yet this season.

Not to mention, we were all pretty surprised that Singleton and Hudson transferred, so there are a couple of surprises that will inevitably pop up. And with the amount of talent being taken at OL and DL, it wouldn't surprise me if we see some attrition there, especially considering the flyers we took that have incredibly high ceilings, but maybe aren't progressing. Probably a safety as well, probably a punter. If Gentry comes back, I would guess we see a tight end leave. 

TK

November 15th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

Well...yeah. 

Considering we have about 16 open spots now I’m factoring in a hell of a lot of attrition. I’m saying squinting real hard because to get to 28 would be a real stretch. That’s why you can’t just say “take them all”. We can’t take 33 commits as much as we would want to. 

tkokena1

November 15th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^

We currently have about 6 walk-ons with scholarships on the depth chart by class. Its my understanding that walk-ons get scholarships when they are available and only for 1 year at a time (regular scholarship players have a 4-year scholarship). 

If that is the case, then we can move those 6 scholarships to this recruiting class easily getting our numbers to around 28/29 - add in a few more transfers that always happen in the spring, and we are at 30/31.

tkokena1

November 15th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^

You're right, I assumed the walk-ons on the depth chart by class were included in the bottom numbers, they are not.

I have no idea how we would get up to 30 unless everyone is planning on leaving early (Patterson, Gentry, Gary, Bush, Hudson, Hill, Long, and Metellus) - that would be a stretch. 

mfan_in_ohio

November 15th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^

We have 19 open spots now (The depth chart has 11 expiring eligibility and 7 open spots, plus Kurt Taylor is still on that roster).  Should be another 5 or so juniors leaving via firm handshake or early entry, so that's 24.  There are also 2-3 sophomores that are obvious transfer candidates, especially since they may actually be able to grad transfer if they can graduate in 3 years.  So I can easily see 27.  To get any higher you're looking at underclassmen transferring because they've been passed (e.g. Taylor, Singleton).  I could see a CB, RB, or TE leaving for that reason, although there are no obvious candidates. 

michgoblue

November 15th, 2018 at 3:08 PM ^

I said this in the thread below yours, but if we land all of those top prospects, it is likely that a few of the lower-rated recruits will look elsewhere.  

JHumich

November 15th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^

Keegan, Karlaftis, Harrison, Crouch

Even if some recruits walk, we're likely to be a favored destination for good grad transfers.

I don't really worry about whatever lower stars we take anymore. Yes, generally speaking, stars are one helpful indicator of future performance. But based on what Harbaugh's three stars have done, I take lower star ratings as an indication that others have misjudged the guys we take rather than that we're settling.

4th and Go For It

November 15th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^

A couple of "insiders" have hinted at as many as 6-7 already known potential underclassmen transfers on top of expected graduation/eligibility/firm hand shakes.

Who knows what exactly will happen but this is a process, not something that has to be completed on signing day. The final stretch of recruiting/attrition for the the class, the draft, spring ball, and the passage of time will sort the numbers out. This staff knows what it's doing.

It seems to me like we're most likely down to "takes" from Harrison, Crouch, Karlaftis, DeLoach, Perry, and Keegan and then some guys who might replace one of those guys if we don't get them. 

Watching From Afar

November 15th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^

I wouldn't be shocked to see departures from:

DL - Incoming class is huge with at least 6 recruits and that's not counting Karlaftis or Harrison.

RB - 2 incoming guys plus the 4 already on campus.

DB - 13 guys will have eligibility after this season. That includes Hill and Long, 1 of which will probably leave, but still. Add in 3 more recruits (possibly 4) and that is getting really packed as well.

QB - With Patterson coming back, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone leave.

So outside of the 21 or so spots that can reasonably be assumed to be available due to the walk ons, graduations, and obvious early draftees (Bush and Gary) that maybe frees up enough for a class of 26-28.

CTrace

November 15th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^

I can see 27 or 28 for this class.
11 players with no eligibility left.
1 open spot with Taylor leaving
6 or 7 early entrants to NFL draft
3 or 4 scholarships offered to walk-ons this year were 1 year deals. I suspect Wilson keeps his.
2 eligible 5th year guys transfer out.
4 underclassmen transfer out.

Not to mention, it probably is very likely 1 or 2 among the current committed class may not stick.

Watching From Afar

November 15th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^

IMO:

Gary - Foregone conclusion

Bush - Almost certainly

Long/Hill - Probably lose 1 of them

Bredeson - I don't get this one so I'm saying he comes back

Hudson - Isn't putting up the numbers like he did last year and is more position-less than Peppers was without the special teams usage so I'd say he comes back

Onwenu - Still too big and unrefined

Patterson - Yeah, we heard he comes back so I guess we go with that

Watching From Afar

November 15th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^

Assuming moderate early departures for the draft (so like 2) and a few firm handshakes instead of 5th years (another 2), I can get down to 65 scholarships.

Assume another 1 or 2 early departures for the draft, plus a transfer from the RB/DL (Since so many are incoming) or DBs (since there are like 13 of them right now) and that gets you down ~61 so enough room for 24.

Past that... uhhhhh. Would have to see quite a few more transfers or the current class would drop a few guys.

Edit: Actually, I can find enough room for 26 guys without crippling transfers/guys leaving that would make sense and not shock us.

ak47

November 15th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^

If we have a 28 person class some pretty disappointing transfers of people with real potential will be happening. More likely is probably some shitty pushing out of lower rated guys in this class.

And I think for our defense to be elite next year we need one of hill or long back.

Blue_by_U

November 15th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

In years past and even recent I'd agree we need one of those guys back, but I think there is such a talent and culture shift, it won't matter. We have enough guys with great skill and experience I am not overly worried like I used to be. Ambry Thomas as good as he does in the return game...should step up as soon as a spot opens. Hawkins looks legit, I'd argue there are a number of freshmen/soph who have yet to see a lot of field time who will contribute as soon as needed.

ak47

November 15th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^

Hawkins has looked ok, not legit. Just look at OSU's defense this year despite absolutely elite recruiting and a DC with a long history of success. It is really hard to constantly replace players, pretty much only Saban has been able to do it at Bama. 

4th and Go For It

November 15th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^

Pushing out from the class might not need to happen as much as a mutual realistic look at them seeing the field. We've seen with increasing frequency this year across college football that players are looking at how they best can see the field vs sticking it out with the school they committed to - why not do that before you have to start dealing with the NCAA?

My guess is there will be a fair amount of late-early guys transferring as well. Guys with injuries who still haven't seen the field after being here a year or two and guys who can't crack the anticipated 2 deep will see the writing on the wall by spring. You either push to the top quickly these days or some talented guys coming in will bury your chances of seeing the field. 

It's a new day in college football and  in Michigan football. If you show up and don't show out quickly, the days of you having 3-4 years to break into the starting line up are going to be fading for reasons on both side. If that's the price paid to recruit at an elite level, I'm fine with it. Hopefully the NCAA can make it easier on guys to transfer out as well if it continues to move in that direction nationally

Couzens

November 15th, 2018 at 4:46 PM ^

Not that I want to lose anyone from the current class, but if we were to be lucky enough to land 4 or 5 of the guys on your list I'm sure some of our current commits would go elsewhere. 6 incoming DL that are all highly rated (or underrated) would be a haul, but I could see 2 or those guys wanting to be the gem in another school's class...

holding1973

November 15th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^

there are more on the radar...

J Ellis - Speedster WR  and soft Baylor commit 

T Eichenburg - ILB, BC commit OSU & UM trying to flip

J Jacobs - IA LB commit OSU & UM trying to flip

Amauri Pesek-Hickson - ATH with a CB prediction today

Dawand Jones - Jumbo OT from Ben Davis H.S. who's blowing up a bit (offer from FSU, USC etc...). Maybe our fall back for Keegan or Ike. Reported by 247 to be 6-8 360

Maybe Renaldo Green an FSU CB commit OSU & UM trying to flip

 

maizenbluenc

November 15th, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^

I get an intent to monitor ethics, but these kind of posts are unseemly. They result in innuendos about current players and recruits, which may result in unintended consequences.