Recruiting Numbers

Submitted by umhero on January 29th, 2011 at 2:28 AM

For my own edification, I decided to review the current roster to assess the potential  number of openings available for this class.

Here's our current roster of scholarship players or contributing walk ons:

Michigan Roster

The team is allowed a total of 85 scholarship players.

From what I can tell, there are currently 71 players that are either on scholarship or are contributing walk ons.  

There are seven contributing walk ons (highlighted in yellow) and nine potential 5th year players (highlighted in orange).  If none of the 5th years or walk ons were given scholarships next year, then Michigan would have room for 30 new players in this class.

If we land Barnett, Rawls, Fisher, Willingham, Clark & Cooper, then we would need 23 scholarships for the incoming class leaving seven for the 5th years and walk ons.

Which of the 5th Years and walk ons should get the remaining seven scholarships next year?  Here's my list:

  1. Molk
  2. Van Bergen
  3. Woolfolk
  4. Herron
  5. Hemingway
  6. Kovacs
  7. Huyge

If we only end up with 22 or 21 in the class or there's attrition in the spring, then Grady and Leach would be considered for the freed up scholarships.

Does anyone see any errors in my analysis?

EDIT - Removed Lalota and adjusted the numbers to reflect his departure per comments below.

  

Comments

AnthonyThomas

January 29th, 2011 at 3:21 AM ^

You're probably right. You can give a redshirt to another one of the freshman LBs that way too. They could all use one to bulk up outside of Willingham, imo.

I really hope Lewan doesn't declare for the draft after next season. The O-line's going to have to be refurbished over the next 2-3 years as it is. That should be a big priority in next year's recruiting whether we get Fisher or not.

club_med

January 29th, 2011 at 10:42 AM ^

I can't see any way he could possibly be ready to go for several years, given the total lack of polish he really has at this point. That, combined with his idolization of JL, I think he'll be sticking around for a while.

umhero

January 29th, 2011 at 3:42 AM ^

I remember there was a lot of discussion about him on this site at the time.  Some speculated that he was a preferred walk-on others pointed out that his grades were good enough to earn an academic scholarship.  

He was supposedly a Carr pick, but he wasn't initially listed among the commits on signing day.

MrWoodson

January 29th, 2011 at 4:24 AM ^

Morales has been on scholarship for three years and would have to pay $40k in out of state tuition to complete his degree if UM pulls it now. That would be a douche move and we are not going to do that to him. And Kovacs has been a starter for most of the past two years and was on scholarship this year. He should be considered a scholarship player at this point and not a walk-on.

umhero

January 29th, 2011 at 8:36 AM ^

If it's true that he's been on scholarship for three years, then I agree with you, but I knew there was some debate about that.

As the article points out, he was only told his scholarship was good for the first year.  It sounds to me like the deal like Reed Baker got.

SanDiegoWolverine

January 29th, 2011 at 4:43 AM ^

There's no way this guy is on the roster this year.  If his medical issues are as bad as they say I think we can strike him out right now.

I really like the chart and the concept of ranking the walk-ons/5th year seniors so we can see who might get a scholarship as a few kids leave the program.

One problem with this though is that I'm sure a 5th year senior who isn't extended a 5th year isn't going to show up to camp in August hoping to get a scholie if someone doesn't qualify or there is a transfer during fall camp.  But this is exactly what walk-ons do.

By July or August I imagine we'll have 3 or 4 non qualifiers or transfers and it will be a moot point anyways.  We make a big deal every year about having enough scholarships but it always seems to work out.

MrWoodson

January 29th, 2011 at 4:44 AM ^

i don't think we are going to go as high as 23 in this class. Considering the players we will want to give fifth years to in 2012 and the deep Midwest talent pool available for next year's class, I think we want to keep this class to around 20-21 (max 22).

umhero

January 29th, 2011 at 9:09 AM ^

I'm pretty sure that they would accept commitments from five remaining offerees if they want to come.  That would get us to 22, so the only question is Thomas Rawls.  I'm convinced that if he's eligible, then he'll get an off and accept.  That would mean 23 scholarships would be used.

That would mean next year, before attrition the following scholarships would open up:

  1. M. Shaw
  2. M. Odoms
  3. J. Hemingway*
  4. D. Stonum
  5. K. Koger
  6. M. Huyge*
  7. D. Molk*
  8. M. Martin
  9. R. Van Bergen*
  10. J. Fitzgerald
  11. B. Herron*
  12. T. Woolfolk*

And the following players would need to be considered whether to offer them a 5th year:

  1. M. Cox*
  2. T. Robinson*
  3. R. Roundtree*
  4. B. Moore*
  5. R. Barnum*
  6. R. Khoury*
  7. E. Mealer*
  8. P. Omameh*
  9. K. Demens*
  10. J. Kovacs*
  11. J. Floyd*

I suspect there are six on that list that would not be offered 5th years.

denverblue

January 29th, 2011 at 9:28 AM ^

I agree with the first part of your post in that M will take a full class. Even if next year is loaded with talent in the midwest, I've never thought that a team should "bank scholarships" for the next year. A bird in the hand, etc.

As to your last bit, I highly doubt that 6 of those 11 wouldn't be offered 5th years. I don't know if M has ever not offered 5th years to more than a couple guys a year, much less 6. Honestly, outside of T-Rob, and possibly M Cox, all the other players are at positions in need of talent/depth.

Roundtree isn't getting his scholly pulled, Moore will be one of the only TE's on the roster, Barnum, Khoury, Mealer and Omameh will need to be around to allow our younger OL's to redshirt, Demens isn't getting his pulled, and Kovacs and Floyd would be 5th year guys in the secondary- it's been awhile since we've had a couple of those returning. I would bet most of those guys will be granted 5th years, no more than one or two tops who aren't.

JJB2

January 29th, 2011 at 7:45 AM ^

might be a good choice.  It looks like we might not get a FB scholarship player this year.  Kerridge is fast for a big dude.  He did earn preferred walk-on status recently.  He missed senior year due to blown out ACL but just finished rehab.  

milhouse

January 29th, 2011 at 8:11 AM ^

With the coaching change what are the chances we sign our maximum +2 that would allow us to account for attrition during spring ball?

ALSO: Durham committed to Kent State last night.  I don't think his test scores were high enough...

EDIT: Beat me to it.

readyourguard

January 29th, 2011 at 8:52 AM ^

Perhaps I'm the eternal optimist and oblivious to the realities of a coaching change, but is there any rumbling of disgruntled kids who are on the edge of transferring?  Things seem to be so positive on the outside...could it be that much different on the inside?

 

 

SanDiegoWolverine

January 29th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^

Considering we've averaged 7-8 transfers over the last 4 years (heck last year 5 incoming freshman didn't even make it to opening day) I would be delighted if only 3-4 guys transfer.

It's not always bad for the player or program when a player transfers.  If a player is buried on the depth chart after 2-3 years and wants to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond I would hope we would all be supportive of him.

That being said I hope we see nothing like we saw in 08 and 09 as far as transfers and non-qualifiers, that really hurt our team.

Don

January 29th, 2011 at 9:06 AM ^

??? How many OLs declare after their sophomore seasons? It's rare enough that they declare after their junior season.

As good as Lewan might be, NFL people would laugh at the notion that he'd be ready for the NFL after just two seasons in college.

Keep in mind that a good percentage of OLs who are drafted are five year guys who redshirted their freshman year.

In other words, your worry is completely unfounded. It's no more likely than Hoke ditching us for Ohio State.

Naked Bootlegger

January 29th, 2011 at 2:03 PM ^

Badgers' offensive starters (opening day):

5th year seniors:  Tolzien (QB), Kendricks (TE), Anderson (WR), Moffitt (OL), Carimi (OL)

4th year juniors:  Toon (WR), Clay (RB), Oglesby (OL)

Oglesby got hurt, but they had 5th year senior Nagy as an OL super-sub.  

8 of 11 opening day starters on offense had 4 years in the program.  This is the recipe for a typical Wisconsin Big 10/11/12 contender.  Wiscy does a great job of developing talent (e.g., Tolzien, Anderson were 2-stars, Moffitt and Carimi 3-stars) and infusing younger talent when necessary (e.g., James White).  

I can't wait for the Wolverines - especially the "D" - to be littered with 4/5 year players again.

 

 

 

Yost Ghost

January 29th, 2011 at 5:40 PM ^

Nice chart, couple of things. First you have the number 7 as a count on the TE line, pretty sure that's not correct. Second you show the walk-ons in yellow and one of them is Morales but according to Scout he was a recruit in 2008. Conversely you show Grady as a 5th year but wasn't he a walk-on? Also Williams will most likely leave due to injury giving up his spot but what about Watson?

umhero

January 29th, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^

Good catch on the TEs.  

Regarding Morales, there has been some debate about his status.  I linked an article above from the time of his recruitment that suggests that he may have been more of a preferred walk on, since Carr only offered him a scholarship for the first year.

I agree about Williams (he may get a medical scholarship if he still needs to finish).  I doubt Watson gets a fifth year.