Recruiting: Irretrievably screwed or just temporarily screwed?

Submitted by wolverine1987 on January 10th, 2011 at 9:16 AM

Now that Kelvin Grady's twitter prediction of a weekend announcement has passed, and we hear from Angelique that Brandon and Miles are meeting Tuesday (why not Wednesday Dave? Not like time is a issue is it?) I would like to return to recruiting and ask the question posed in the headline, particularly to those that follow recruiting more closely than I do. 

So today is the 10th, and signing day is 2/2. Let's say something surprising happens and we hire someone tomorrow night and announce it Wednesday. So a new coach officially begins on the 12th. A a staff has to be assembled, even if some come with him. That takes a few days. Realistically the staff isn't in place until the weekend. So even on my accelerated schedule for a new hire, the staff doesn't really recruit until the 15th or so. That gives them roughly two weeks to 1-familiarize themselves with the committed recruits through film and persuade them to stay, and 2- try to fill the class (approx. 8 spots open) with new recruits--a harder job since Frost/Hart/Lyons have all committed elsewhere during this transition. Is it even possible to do this in a 2 week timetable?

Comments

Firstbase

January 10th, 2011 at 9:22 AM ^

...I think we're pretty much screwed, missing out on fairly large opportunities that I just don't see recommitting regardless of coaching choice. 2012 and beyond, who can say?

One can now understand those who think DB should have probably kept RR for his 4th year and silently performed a search for a replacement over many months. This could have potentially made for a far less volatile and devastating transition -- especially from a recruiting standpoint.

Callahan

January 10th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^

One can now understand those who think DB should have probably kept RR for his 4th year and silently performed a search for a replacement over many months.

But wouldn't RR being a dead man walking essentially kill next year's recruiting? Would we have had RR tell next year's recruits, "Hey, you know they're firing me, so make sure you want to play for my unnamed successor." Decommits happen when you fire coaches. We'll be ok.

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 11:47 AM ^

would have made things awful sunny.  Depending on the coach brought in we may be on our fourth different starting QB in 4 years.  Not to mention the possibility of him being the only scholarship QB on the team.

All I know is we are missing out on a lot of recruits that were highly thought of.  If we have defections from the current roster we're looking at a couple more years to rebuild.  With 2012's schedule things could get ugly.  Maybe scheduling Alabama at a nuetral site with away games at ND, Nebraska, and OSU wasn't such a bright idea.  I forgot we have to sell the "brand" which I hope doesn't turn into the quality of product at Dominos while DB was CEO there.

bluenyc

January 10th, 2011 at 12:41 PM ^

Yeah, I wish RR had more wins, but he didn't.  I think DB handcuffed himself because he waited.  And after the bowl loss, it was impossible to bring him back.  And bringing him back with the contract extension or some good faith that he will be here past next year wasn't an option. 

If RR was fired after OSU, that would give recruits and commits more time.  The timeline is costing commits, RR losing the last 3 cost recruits. 

I agree that 2012 is going to be tough.  All you can do know is wait for the new coach and support him.  RR is gone and you will kill yourself looking back to see what if.  If DB doesn't get someone in here by the end of the week, we can panic about this class. 

King Douche Ornery

January 10th, 2011 at 12:44 PM ^

But at some point you have to decide where to jump. Brandon made his choice (right about the time he was hired) and that was that.

On recruiting and "missing out"--we have been missing out for three years WRT top-notch defensive recruits, especially along the defensive line and at linebacker. Last year's class had just one (an albeit very questionable one) OL recruit. To say that the angst over Rodriguez and a replacement is causing recruiting damage is speculation if you ask me. I also believe a good hire might be able to close some 11th hour deals.

And I know we're gun shy from the attrition that occurred when RR took over--but I'm not seeing that as an issue here--which might be the best thing about waiting because class starts soon (or already has) for second semester.

Call me weird for this, but I'm also going to defer to a belief that a lot of these guys just might actually LIKE Michigan now that they've been here awhile and will stay.

I refuse to buy into any theory that says this "delay" in naming a coach or canning Rodriguez is going to do irreparable harm or cause multiple years' worth of damage. 

Dreisbach1817

January 10th, 2011 at 9:20 AM ^

I think so long as we get it done early this week, we're not doomed for this class.  And I think we still have a shot with Frost.

Like everey other topic on this board right now, this conversation is somewhat irrelevant because it is impossible to predict.  Our only option is to let nature (Dominos airplane) take its course.

GoBlue21

January 10th, 2011 at 9:36 AM ^

I still think Frost is available, he's not committed to anyone according to scout...

http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=3455809

To everyone's surprise, Frost picked Auburn at the game. Anyway, later that evening, everyone was talking about Auburn not having a scholarship to give him, isn't that odd??? Looking at his profile, he's not committed to Auburn.

Everyone else that committed during that game has been posted but Frost. Maybe he did this for a reason, maybe Michigan is still 'the school' and he just wants to see who the head coach is going to be. I HOPE Michigan gets a head coach very soon so they can get this recruiting class back in shape. I don't want to sacrifice the young men that want to be here but they have no one to talk to right now other than the players. Gruden, Miles, Hoke or whoever else needs to get on these young men ASAP...

 

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 10:41 AM ^

after the game and basically said Michigan was out.  Very disappointed in the way things were handled.  Crawford is gone unless it Miles or someone who was already recruiting him.  Fisher is getting plenty of calls and will take visits.  Posada and Goudis are taking visits.  Right now we are down to about 8 commits that are definite.

Louisiana kids will stick with LSU so Miles will bring few with him.   Hoke has 9 3 stars, 7 two star, and 5 unrated players per Rivals with only 2 having a position rank so no help there. TCU despite their overwhelming success only has one 4 star recruit out of 21 commits so it looks like mostly Texas and Oklahoma kids who weren't recruited by the big time programs there except Ladarius Brown who's #44 overall on Rivals.

My biggest concern is the O line which was looking good before the RR firing with Fisher, Miller, Posada, and probably Frost.  Zettel would be added to that but I believe was slated for D.  If we strike out on the Oline the future is very much in jeopardy unless we can get a couple top100 guys next year IMO.

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^

a**hole.  As you can see from my post, if you can read, I talked about more than one area.  The subject headline was in response to a question.  Nice post though as it added value to the board like most of your  sentence or two replies.

TIMMMAAY

January 10th, 2011 at 3:02 PM ^

My biggest concern is the O line which was looking good before the RR firing with Fisher, Miller, Posada, and probably Frost.

Other areas indeed. Thanks for the name calling though, it was richly deserved. Seriously, I pointed out (in a total non dickhead way) that there was a factual error in what you wrote. There was. You call me an asshole and tell me about how I don't add "value" to the board with my one or two sentence replies. Nice man, you should be proud of yourself.

mgobleu

January 10th, 2011 at 9:25 AM ^

Well, you know how Brian usually writes off RR's first class because he had so little time to assemble one? He was (as far as a recruit is concerned) already the coach at Michigan on Dec. 19.

MGoShtoink

January 10th, 2011 at 9:24 AM ^

and it might not be temporarily... it's just painful right now because all of RR recruits are bailing.

We are talking about 17 year old kids who have short attention spans.  This will all be forgotten about about a week after the coach is named. 

We also are quick to forget that, while these recruits are excellent, they are also RR style of players that may or may not fit in well with the new coach's schemes.  We also forget that the new coach will, hopefully, bring some of his own recruits.  Plus there are those on the outside waiting to see who will be the coach and make a decision from there.

I think it hurts, but a judgement cannot be made until after signing day or even the 2011 season.

JeepinBen

January 10th, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^

Our chances were definitely hurt with a lot of these kids, but lets see what happens, especially on 2/2 before we say that any of them are 100% out. 

That said, we're still hurting ourselves for every day we don't have a coach

thisiscmd

January 10th, 2011 at 9:25 AM ^

We are probably not going to be in great shape this year for recruiting, but we weren't exactly pulling a stellar class anyway (by M standards, no dig at the recruits intended). I think DB is more concerned with getting the right man in for the head coaching position than retaining this recruiting class, which historically, is below average for Michigan IMO.

2012 obviously depends on who ends up being HC and how we do in the 2011 season. But I am cautiously optimistic.

PhillipFulmersPants

January 10th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^

pretty close to what's going on.  As soon as it became a very real possibility that RR may not return in 2011 (after the promising start, it was as early as the PSU game when it clicked in for me ), the upside of this class was probably  going to be limited. Even if he was retained, I still think he would have been swimming upstream against negative recruiting. If I were an opposing coach, I would have pointed out that th2011 was going to be make or break year for RR (which I think we can all reseanably assume would have been the case) and ask a kid if he wanted to take that gamble.

I believe (and hope) you're absolutely right in that Brandon is much more concerned about getting the best candidate than the quality or depth of this recruiting class. The latter, while not great news, can be overcome in time. But if he doesn't get the right hire, it becomes a multi-year problem much bigger than a single year's recruiting haul.

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^

We had 3 of the top 65 in the country sitting in our hands.  Avery Walls was a heavy lean until uncertainty pushed him away.  Lamar Dawson and Darian Cooper dropped us after the firing and we may lose Chris Bryant.  The class was going to close w/ a bang.

This doesn't include all the work the current staff did on 2012 kids.

thisiscmd

January 10th, 2011 at 11:12 AM ^

TIm's Average Big Ten Recruiting Ranking by Month (13 teams; includes ND)

Jul: 4th

Aug: 4th

Sep: ?

Oct: 5th

Nov: 5th

Dec: 5th

My bad, excellent recruiting. We shouldn't aspire to outrecruit the likes of Nebraska and Michigan State.

edit: my apologies for snarkiness, but i was surprised to hear an argument that this class was above average. still a bunch of talented kids we got committed and you never know who can blow up and become a star.

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 11:59 AM ^

not where you are now.  By all reports there were 2 to 3 silent commits.  Zettel had us leading, but to much doubt whether being a new coach or D coordinator.  Walls was recruiting for us until the uncertainty.  Just because the current commit list was ranked where you posted doesn't mean that where we have ended up.  We weren't going to catch OSU, but in all likelyhood would have ended up second in the Big Ten. It's called the big picture.

Maize and Blue…

January 10th, 2011 at 12:04 PM ^

Because kids were waiting to see what happened they hadn't committed.  2 to 3 silent commits none of which have picked us so far.  Lost Zettel because of doubt about the Michigan coaching situation.  Avery Walls was recruiting for us until the uncertainty struck. Bryant pushing back his decision. With RR we would have closed with a bang now we are in wait and see mode.

Wolverine3927

January 10th, 2011 at 11:24 AM ^

Michigan was suffering from the 7-6 record and uncertainty about Rodriguez before he was fired, so this was already a borderline top-25 recruiting class.  His firing might have caused us to miss on a few late kids (Frost, Walls) but wasn't going to be a top 10 class no matter what.  At this point, our best hope is for the new coach to keep the existing commits, close the deal on a few others (Bryant), and maybe get a few snake oil surprises.  But let's not kid ourselves, this wasn't going to be a great class if Rodriguez had been retained for a 4th year.

bluenyc

January 10th, 2011 at 9:31 AM ^

Isn't there a dead period in recruiting coming up?  I would agree with the others, that if we get something early this week, we might be able to use this recruiting weekend.  Otherwise, we would have lost 2 major weekends.  I just want us to keep our guys.  The longer it takes, I am worried that the non-Michigan guys will be gone.

Captain Scumbag

January 10th, 2011 at 9:36 AM ^

I recall that when ND hired Charlie Weis, he wanted to stay with the Patriots on their Super Bowl run. Doing so really hurt their recruiting class that year. Ultimately, that class really killed them in 2007 since there was almost no depth.

I see Michigan in a similar position now. The only real hope to salvage this class is that an established coach comes on board and convinces a number of verbal commits at his current school to flip to Michigan. Even then that's not terribly likely.

michiganfanforlife

January 10th, 2011 at 9:36 AM ^

and I'll say it again. This class already has a good amount of defensive depth left in it. The new coach should focus on keeping the 18 remaining starters wearing Maize and Blue. The rest is important for the future, but not as important as just keeping the fort up and running.

Please hire Bud Foster... help me Obi Brandon... he's our only hope.... A coach who is great on Defense and Special teams is just what we need about now.