Recruiting with the Heavyweights (300+ final class rankings on 24/7)

Submitted by Heptarch on December 22nd, 2016 at 10:31 AM

First time as OP.  I’d say “Be gentle”, but I know this board well enough by now to know that if you find this post worthwhile I won’t need the admonition and if you don’t… well… no amount of pleading will save me. 

Since 2002 only 14 teams have finished with a final class rating over 300, an average of one a year.  In 6 of those 14 years NO team cracked 300.  So historically, that’s a relatively high bar to clear and a good sign of recruiting at the highest level.  

I was spending some time this morning looking at how good our 2017 class might be when all is said and done.  If we get all of the kids we expect to get (Singleton, Anthony, Collins, Filiaga) and a handful of others we’re not sure about (Harris, Solomon, Tufele, Gay, Slaton), we’ll finish with a 24/7 composite class ranking over 300.  

Obviously Alabama and Ohio State are killing it this year and both are pretty much guaranteed to finish 300+ as well.

That got me to wondering how many times three teams have finished 300+ and the answer is… zero.  It’s never happened in the 24/7 composite era which extends back to 2002 (I'm ignoring 2000-2001 because the numbers don't seem comparable).

What’s also interesting is that there is a fourth team, Georgia, who could join that particular party this year as well.

Below is the projection I saw using the 24/7 class calculator based on recruits with heavy Crystal Ball leans to each given school:


OSU:  318.52 (adding Jeffrey Okudah, Darnay Holmes and Jaylen Harris)

Alabama:  313.64 (adding Labryan Ray, Jarez Parks, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs… losing Najee Harris)

Georgia:  301.43 (adding DeAngelo Gibbs, Nate McBride, Tray Bishop, Leonard Weaver)

Michigan:  300.43 (adding Harris, Solomon, Singleton, Filiaga, Collins, Anthony)



Michigan is also in the thick of it for Jay Tufele, Willie Gay and Tedarrell Slaton.  Adding any one of those would leapfrog us over Georgia.

Also of note… a lot has been made of OSU’s class this year.  If they finish according to the projection above, that will make for the fourth best class ever (behind 2010 Florida, 2014 Alabama and 2013 Alabama).  The Class Calculator doesn't give average player rating, but I suspect that's where OSU would be the top class in history.  Right now they're at 95.72 which is well above the previous high of 93 and change.

While I recognize that cracking 300 would take a lot of things falling our way, I think the fact that we have a realistic shot at it two years into Harbaugh's tenure speaks eloquently about how firmly the trajectory of the program has changed under his leadership and how bright the future is for our beloved Wolverines.

Go Blue!  

Comments

The Fan in Fargo

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:36 PM ^

Well the act of sex can be scary itself. There are women out there that are selfish and it doesn't make for very good sex. I don't think they have a clue about this. Sex is never bad but some women are so much better at it than others. Way better! So reverting to the alternative is a safe bet I guess. I do remember the first time I had sex. I was so damn scared. Yet, I was all alone and in the dark. Am I getting the point across here?

BFoley

December 22nd, 2016 at 10:38 AM ^

I think it will ultimately come down to if we can flip Harris or not. Either way I feel great about this class and already looking forward to how the next few years shake out as our play on the field continues to grow.

Blue In NC

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:51 AM ^

I am sorry but regardless of how statistics work, these players are not "once in a generation" players by definition.  If you want to use the "100-year flood concept" then yes, it could happen multiple times but then, by definition, Harris, Peppers and probably not even Gary meet that defintion.  Can you honestly say that Harris is the type of player that is expected only once in a generation?  No, he is the top rated player but not clearly better than a number of RBs in the last 20 years.  So your label of those players fails and that's why people called you out on your post.

corundum

December 22nd, 2016 at 12:01 PM ^

I can see where you're coming from and you might even be right, but I'm referring to the top three prospects as once in a generation because that's about the liklihood of a specific team landing that caliber of a recruit. Obviously Harris wouldn't be a once in a generation type player for Alabama, but has Michigan ever landed the number one overall RB prospect?

corundum

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^

I wouldn't read too much into that. I'm sure Alabama insiders in general are more confident when it comes to recruit interest. Also, they might be more apt to issue 'gut feels' when it won't be the end of the world if he commits elsewhere, since they will just plug and play another blue chipper into the two deep.

M-Dog

December 22nd, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^

Clemson recrutiing is the easiest job in the world.  Just wait until another staff does all the work of identifying a kid and offering him . . . and then just have your bagman swoop in in January and steal him away.

Clemson is the new Ole Miss.

 

corundum

December 22nd, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^

Crazy that Bama can finish with a 313 without landing Harris or Akers. Most of us hate Alabama, but the dynasty Saban has built is astonishing and will be cemented in CFB history forever.

huntmich

December 22nd, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^

The thing that I find terrific is that there is reason to think that this is what we should expect moving forward. When Harbaugh came to the job at the end of 2014, the kids he would take in the 2016 class were already being wooed by other schools. He had a lot of ground to make up building relationships in a short amount of time. But he was simultaneously laying the ground work for this epic 2017 recruiting class.

 

There is no reason to think that he isn't now laying the ground work for another epic class next year as well. And he obviously has the talent and the team to develop these kids into top notch players.

 

The future is bright for the maize and blue.

Mr Miggle

December 22nd, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

Next year's class will not be ranked as high due to the projected small size. I'd bet on it having a higher average though.

This year's class is very impressive in part because of its size. There isn't much of a dropoff towards the lower end of the rankings. It's not easy to fill such a large class without making a number of reaches.

WeimyWoodson

December 22nd, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^

will still be a large number based on kids deciding they want playing time and other matters, and it will be the best average ranking based on the fact the Michigan will have 10+ players drafted this year alone.  

As Steve Lorenz says, kids love the idea of teams who've won the NC, but NFL is the biggest driving factory for them.  The reason they're killing recruiting this year is because of all the players they put in the draft this past Spring.  Major continuted NFL drafting success will be one of the biggest factors for blue chip players.