Recruiting Bitching: What am I missing?
So I understand that we are "out" on guys like Seantral Henderson, we
"lost" that one DB to ND (still not sure how we "lose" a guy we never had), yadda yadda yadda.
Per Scout right now we are ranked #11 in recruiting behind these schools: Alabama, LSU, USC, Texas, UGA, Oklahoma, PSU, UFlorida. WE WENT FUCKING 3-9 LAST YEAR.
USC is ranked #12
MSU is ranked out of the top 25
OSU is ranked #15
Is there a reason that there are so many chicken littles out there right now? I understand that RR has taken a few fliers, but what am I missing here? If someone told me that we are guaranteed the #11 class every year I really like our outlook for the future.
is not over yet. Stay tuned until then.
your self setup for a letdown. 99% sure hes going to USC/OSU/or Minny.
Michigan is very much in it, moreso than most people realized.
Listen to this guy, people.
authentication besides just speculation? I know The Other Brian is usually dead on, but all I've heard from every source says Michigan's gonna struggle to get an official. Now that doesn't mean alot because you usually want to take officals furthest away from your house as possible, but all ive heard is negative vibes.
that Henderson is considering Michigan. Just because he's not taking an official visit, doesn't mean that he's not considering them. He has been to Michigan a few times which is a sign of heavy interest on his part. He doesn't need to take official to Minny since he live so close to it.
Is your source The Other Brian?
But seriously, no one on this board wants you two to be wrong.
Michigan will get Henderson but they are very much in it more than people realize. Far cry from "no chance" or he eliminated Michigan.
Just curious... do you have a reputable and knowledgeable inside source with direct access to Henderson, or is this just your epinion?
Henderson has publicly stated that the major criteria he's using is to select a program that will do the best job of preparing him for the NFL. It goes without saying that this includes being put in a position of getting a high draft position. Since you're far more likely to be selected high in the draft if you're on a top-echelon team with a strong chance to be in the NC every year, that immediately narrows the field to teams like USC, OSU, Florida (which are his latest stated leaders) plus others like LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma. If you're in a major media market like USC, so much the better. Unfortunately, right now, Michigan is definitely not in that group.
Sure, it's possible that Henderson is simply blowing smoke about what the real criteria are for him, but if you take what he's been saying as a valid indicator of what's reality, Michigan's chances right now are so small as to be not worth fantasizing about.
What can change this is obviously a dramatic, breakthrough season for Michigan. IF we go 10-2 with a victory over OSU and a victory in a BCS bowl over a significant opponent, then that can change the situation in a major way. I also think RR is a hell of a salesman, and if it turns out that a particularly strong bond develops between Henderson and RR or Greg Frey, that can also affect things in a positive way. But if we go 7-5 with an appearance in a mid-level bowl game while USC or Florida or OSU are in the running for the NC at the end of the season, he'll be wearing the uniform of one of those guys.
If you were in his shoes, and you didn't regard UM's academic offerings as being any more important to you than anybody else's, what would do you, if your ultimate goal was to maximize your chances of getting into the NFL as a high draft choice? USC or Michigan?
"Henderson has publically stated"
Publically being the key word there. Sort of like in January, Will Campbell publically eliminated Michigan. What is going on behind the scenes is not always the same as what's being said in front of the mics.
He'll decide on signing day so plenty of time for Michigan to try to turn him to blue. RR is known for being a strong closer.
Also, expect the same for every recruiting class because RR tends to focus on the south(though he did focus on Michigan, Ohio, Penn). Southern recruits(especially defensive players) tends to wait til signing day to commit.
to get drafted automatically. I would want to play for a national title contender because I like winning more than losing, but there are plenty of players who get drafted early that are on teams that have no shot at the MNC. Player development through good coaching is the biggest criteria. If Rodriguez convinces guys that he will get them ready for the NFL as a player, Michigan had enough exposure to put any viable candidate into the NFL. And if we show this year significant improvement, like 7-5 and bowl game, I think we have a shot. If the wheels come off, then we are in trouble, obviously.
Those are 2009's recruiting class rankings....
yeah, so scout has us at #11 for 2010. My post/thoughts still apply.
That is last year's list guy.
yeah, so scout has us at #11 for 2010. My post/thoughts still apply.
We have a lot more commits then some of the other schools, who later will go ahead of us.
fair enough. but 7 of the teams ahead of us have more commits than us.
So in the grand scheme of things we may go up a few notches, fall back a few, or stay steady. Either way I am pretty happy with our ranking. Not sure why people are all worked up.
When other schools get as many commits as us we will drop in the rankings a bit. If we can get to a bowl game this year I think we might get back in on some of the higher ranked guys.
Having more recruits than most schools, we have some potential to drop. I still think we are doing well though.
Anyways, as far as MSU dominating us according to some articles and posters. In head to head battles UofM has won 3 and MSU has won 2 according to the Rivals offer lists.
UofM
Austin White - 3 star
Devin Gardner - 4 star
Christian Pace - 3 star
MSU
Mylan Hicks - 3 star
William Gholston - 4 star
I think you are dead on right.
Here are the arguments that the Chicken Littles have put forward:
* The trenchant insight that Coach Rod has yet to figure out what conference he is in.
* The belief that Coach is only recruiting WRs / forgot to recruit the defense.
* Alarmists bitching that we'll be pwned by that school in EL with the war porn movie fetish on the basis of small samples.
* Dudes worrying that precious snowflake recruits might be turned off by salty discourse.
So, in sum, anyone finding these compelling really needs to have their respective head checked.
"London calling, see we ain't got no swing
'Cept for the ring of that truncheon thing
The ice age is coming, the sun is zooming in
Engines stop running and the wheat is growing thin
A nuclear error, but I have no fear
London is drowning-and I live by the river"
I always get "trenchant" and "truncheon" confused, but I'm with ya Moe
Is it nuclear "error" or "era"? I have never been able to figure that out.
"Nucular"
/DUBYA'D
I always thought he was saying he was fighting a war against terra.....Poor girl...you better watch your back, George is coming for ya!
Ok, but who is saying the sky is falling? I haven't seen anyone that worked up about it, at least on this forum.
There are still reasons for moderate to mild concern, though. I hope the defeat of a strawman like this doesn't encourage a climate on this board where legitimate recruiting worries are ignored or rejected out of hand.
Threads like this are more counterproductive than anything.
none of which are in your strawman arguments. Or did you not see "another meh three star with unimpressive offers" or similar comments from Brian.
There are many guys getting way too worked up, and many of them do have concerns that can rightly be ridiculed. But IMO, not all of the concerns are ridiculous. IMO, the thing that is disappointing people is that with 16 of a likely 20 spots or so filled, that it looks like this year's class will have fewer 4/5 stars and more 3's than we typically have. That may change with re-rankings and new commits, but as it stands today that is the case.
I am NOT saying Brian is all worked up and worried about recruiting today. And I think that we are where we should expect (and arguably better) given 3-9. So I agree with the spirit of the OP. But I don't think that mild disappointment (so far) is an illegitimate stance.
Most of the recruiting anxiety has been in response to the number of offensive skill players we have committed and the number of spots in the class left relative to our remaining needs. At least that's been the case here. I can't speak for other boards.
I have seen, besides too many slot/WR/RB guys, is the number of three-star recruits. I really think that Barwis' training and RR's coaching can turn a three-star into the equivalent of a four or five-star by the end of his stay at UM.
I'm definitely not a "sky is falling" person, in reference to recruiting or UM's projected record this year. Recruiting is fun when they aren't actually playing games, but soon we should have a lot more to talk about than recruiting.
The way the season goes for us will have a considerably greater influence on the final form of the recruiting class than in normal circumstances.
Henderson ain't coming in any event, though. It's more likely that Bill Martin will add LSU, Georgia, and Alabama to future schedules than Seantrel coming here.
Heh.
The consensus of this board (with a few exceptions) seems to be a supportive one but in answer to the question I think the majority of the qusetions (and gripes) can be attributed to the fact that we (UM fans) are bored and hoping to God that we do not see a repeat of last year. I think the gripes will quickly subside if we go into the confrence opener against IU undefeated. Keep in mind though that some people are just going to bitch no matter what you do so my advice to you is to ignore people like this the best you can and try to stay away from the boards that support the skeptics ie. Freep and Mlive.
The reality of this situation is that this is a blog, and people are always gunna find something to complain about. Despite it being a very professional blog and board that is insightful and mostly football savvy, it is still crazy fans that mostly bleed maize and blue. If RR got 25 5* kids to commit in one class, fans would still find a position that didn't have a lot of depth and complain about not getting enough commits for that position.
RR did very well at WVU with 2 and 3 stars. He will do the same here with 3 and 4 stars. If you look at our rankings compared to WVU, I bet there is at least a one star difference per person on average.
I talked the other day at work to a knowledgeable OSU fan who said something that reinforced what jrt is saying. His direct quote was, "I really want to enjoy these next two years, and I'll be lucky if it is two years because RR is going to change the face of B10 football. The speed he is bringing in is scary for everyone else in the conference." This is yet again a reminder that people outside of our UofM world believe in RR's track record and see he has done more with less. Imagine what he will do with more in a couple years when he has his players he wanted for his system. People need to relax and trust the people getting paid millions that they know best.
These past 2 classes that RR has pulled in have excited me more than the last few Lloyd classes by far. RR has pulled in some great talent and playmakers. I just hope they all play to their potential, because if they do, we will be playing on a level that is far above our competition.
As others have stated, the big complaint seems to be the number of 3* kids. I really don't care too much about recruiter rankings, since they have been shown to show immense bias both geographically as well as what teams ultimately wind up recruiting/signing a kid (sometimes referred to as the "ND effect", where borderline 3* recruits become solid 4* once they sign for the Golden Domers). I think this class will be solid, but it is true that the depth on the defensive side of the ball, especially along the line and at LB, is shallower than would be ideal. Coupled with consistent meme pointing out the number of Helium ions UM is recruiting to play the slot, and that's where most of the trepidation is coming from.
Again, who are these people who think the sky is falling because of the number of 3* kids? I'm more and more convinced that you people who keep referencing them are just projecting your own doubts onto these phantoms because they simply have not materialized on this forum.
Also, the geographic and team bias you refer to is only a symptom of Tom Lemming's rankings and should not compromise your faith in the Rivals/Scout rankings.
Personally, I have no problem with the rankings of kids. I've read enough about rankings to know that, especially from high school to college, scouts tend to favor pure athleticism over technique and other more "coachable" elements. Honestly, I could care less. RR has a track record of utilizing the talent around him to create great teams, and I suspect his abilities don't falter whether or not the kid is a 2* or a 5*. The man can coach, and most of the kids he has coming in look like the type of players that will be great fits for his system.
I think the issue out there, and certainly a sentiment on this board, is that this recruiting class doesn't feature the type of balance that the average fan implicitly hopes to see, especially when both sides of the ball need work. Getting guys like White, Gardner, etc. on the offensive side of the ball is great, but RR has yet to snag that big-name defensive player for this class that UM fans are used to seeing, and while that player may pop up at DB (at least based on what I've read recently), the paucity of top-notch recruits on defense scares some people. I think it is a reasonable complaint, even if it winds up being nothing more than misguided rants. This might be selective memory, but it seems that most of the "low-rated kid becomes superstar" examples are guys on offense; a mediocre defensive player in high school tends to stay mediocre in college. That's why people want to see 4* and 5* recruits on defense; the gamble doesn't seem to pay off as much on that side with lesser-rated kids.
As for the recruiting bias, I do trust Scouts/Rivals to be more objective, but it does seem that certain states/regions produce a disproportionate number of top-rated kids, even adjusting for population.
"I'm more and more convinced that you people who keep referencing them are just projecting your own doubts onto these phantoms because they simply have not materialized on this forum."
Wow. Well-said. I think I've seen one or two people making such claims sincerely, but you make a good point - the vast majority of "ANUTHER 3-STAR?" talk around here seems to be assaults on straw men.
Those are last year's rankings, guy.
Im pretty sure OSU was never ranked 15th last year, they started fast and stayed high.
Just wondering how USC can be ranked #12 and be listed as ahead of us at #11? Is one of the USCs be South Carolina?
and considering 3-9 ... i think its very good
"Michigan's chances right now are so small as to be not worth fantasizing about."
Wasn't Michigan 8-4 when Jake Long was a #1 draft pick? Wasn't he an offensive lineman?
Won't the Left Tackle still be an important position in the RR offense for protecting the quarterback?
The idea that Michigan would be disqualified because of the lack of high draft picks doesn't seem to be reasonable to me.
Michigan being left out because they don't run a pro-style offense and may not showcase Hensderson's ability is a reasonable point.
What's the alternative?
In other words, the incoming class looks like X at this time.
What SHOULD it look like?
Given our constraints (bad record last year, new DC) is the counterfactual class tenable?
should how we rank really matter if were bringing in the guys we want in the positions we need? i think bringing in a top 15 recruiting class is good and we shouldnt worry too much about how many stars they have and what their rankings are