RB Recruiting - Does it really matter?
As we (potentially) gear towards a Ty Isaac decision - I began to wonder if landing him is as big of a deal as we all make it out to be.
No question his film is unreal - kid gets into an open space and he's gone. There is also no question that Joliet, IL doesn't provide the stiffest competition, either.
Anyway, I wanted to bring this topic up because of our history with RB recruiting and how the results have deviated from the expected return. Let's take a look at the 4+ star RB commits (per Rivals) we have received from 2002-2011:
Darnell Hood (2002), Pierre Rembert (2002), Jerome Jackson (2003), Max Martin (2004), Kevin Grady (5 stars) (2005), Carlos Brown (2006), Brandon Minor (2006), Sam McGuffie (2008), Mike Shaw (2008), Fitzgerald Toussaint (2009), and Justice Hayes (2011).
That is an odd mix of guys that never did anything (e.g., Hood, Rembert), guys who severely disappointed for some reason (Grady, McGuffie), and one guy that became a significant contributor (Fitz).
You could argue "BUT MIKE HART WAS THERE" and thus there weren't a lot of opportunities for the 4 star guys, but that would just help my point. You could also argue that at one point Brown and Minor were an effective tandem (they were, especially given our lack of talent at QB), but neither one of them lived up to 4-star billing in my opinion.
So, as the decision date for Isaac nears - please do not have one giant collective freak out if he chooses USC over us. There are plenty of other examples of recent RBs we missed on, got angry about, and then saw their careers tarnish relatively quickly (think Dee Hart and Dillon Baxter for completely different reasons).
Maybe you're thinking of a different hit rate. We're not talking about the rate they get hit. We're talking about how often they "hit" their expectations. One of his premises was that many of our 4+ star RB recruits didn't hit.
Fitz ran for 1k yards last year and Justice hayes is a red shirt freshman who has never played a down. Brandon Minor and Grady both had injury issues that hampered their progress at Michigan. Mcguffie transfered after 1 year and then had injury issues at temple. All of the other played behind Mike Hart arguabley the best RB in Michigan history. I guess what i'm saying is I don't see your point here.
It's better to have numerous recruits at the same position because yes sometimes they don't work out. That being said I want Ty badly and it's not because I don't love the other RB recruits int his class.
You're right he did transfer to Rice but completely missed the point of my post.
I don't see how some the guys the OP listed being stuck behind Mike Hart helps make his point. A lot of Great runningbacks would have been behind Mike on the depth chart.
You hypothesis is wrong on all accounts.
A few negative examples does not make your case. The point is that next to a great quarterback, a great running back can elevate a college team to greatness faster than any other single addition. You want to make as many tries at finding this greatness as you can in each recruiting class.
Saying it doesn't matter is to look at the issue too narrowly and to predict failure. If the coaching staff thinks that Isaac might be a great back, then their success or failure to bring him to Michigan could be the difference in winning or not winning championships.
I think that matters a lot.
RB is the one position, whether in CFB or the NFL, where you never really know what you're going to get until they show you what you got. That's why building a stable of talented RB's, and forcing them to compete with one another is so important. Just like was saw with the emergence of Fitz last season, almost always one back will emerge as the clear cut guy who is going to carry the load. I suppose one could make this statement about any position, but to me it seems there is something about the RB position that is different from the rest.
Perhaps it is that the RB position is more reliant upon "intangibles" than other positions. I don't know. It just seems to me that programs that consistently have great running games -- along with having great OL's -- have an amazing number of talented RB's developing at any given moment.
Michigan in the recent past, IMO, didn't necessarily have this stable. The RB's we had were either underachievers, injury prone, or dangerously young. Today, however, I think Michigan is back on track. The addition of Isaac would definitely increase the quality of Michigan's stable, but I think we have a very solid base for Coach Jackson and Borges to work with, epecially given the elite caliber of OL Michigan projects to have soon.
I thought this was a solid post until I saw you mention Dee Hart. He will be a red shirt freshmen next season and played behind TR. Yes he was injured, but he has 4 years to prove that we missed on a big time RB. Which is something I still think he will become.