Ranking Michgan's performances thus far

Submitted by BuckeyeChuck on October 7th, 2018 at 4:51 PM

Two weeks ago, we ranked Michigan's performances after the first 4 games. Michigan's most impressive performance was against Nebraska, followed by WMU, SMU, and lastly ND.

Since then, Michigan played Northwestern. After a sluggish start, Michigan finished strong. I have been debating whether to slot Michigan's performance against NW above or below WMU. I've have decided to slot it above their performance vs. WMU.

On one hand, if any top-10 caliber team played WMU and beat them 49-3 I would nod my head and acknowledge that they did to them precisely what they were supposed to. And if the same top-10 caliber team went to NW and won only 20-17, I would raise an eyebrow and wonder if they were really that good.

On the other hand, looking beneath the final score, it's evident that Michigan was clearly the better team. They decidedly outperformed NW statistically. And this on the road (a known recent deficiency in the program). And to a likely bowl team (likely the only bowl team Michigan has played thus far). Looking at the Five Factors box score, Michigan would have won this game 81% of the time, which means if they played this game 5 times Michigan would win 4 of them, and a 20-17 outcome would have been the least impressive of the 4. So Michigan outperformed NW by more than what the score indicates.

Michigan's performance against Maryland was utter dominance. I'm debating as to whether to slot it above or below their performance against Nebraska. Which means: was Michigan's performance against Maryland their best performance of the season thus far? The score of the game vs. Maryland doesn't compare with the score of the Nebraska game, but through 3 quarters it was complete domination. If not for the kick return, Maryland would have began the 4th quarter with a goose egg on the scoreboard, total yards was nearly 400 to less than 100, and first downs was something like 17-4.

Those are the reasons I considered ranking Michigan's performance above their performance vs. Nebraska. But I think the combination of the kick return and a sluggish 4th quarter might put it below Nebraska.

Best overall performance of the season thus far: vs. Nebraska

#2: vs. Maryland

#3: @ Northwestern

#4: vs. WMU

#5: vs. SMU

Worst overall performance of the season thus far: @ ND

Will be interesting to see where Michigan's next 3 games, the meat of their season schedule, ranks on this list. It's nice to have a 49-3 victory rank merely the 4th most impressive performance out of 6 games.

Take any issue with the rankings? Where do you think we should slot Michigan's performances against Northwestern & Maryland?

RedGreene

October 7th, 2018 at 5:06 PM ^

Update on the 5 biggest scumbag coaches in the Big Ten. 

Urban Meyer 

Urban Meyer

Urban Meyer

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DJ Durkin

Mark Dantonio

bklein09

October 7th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^

Personally, I’d wait a few more weeks before putting the NW win above WMU. 

If NW continues to play well and gets to 4-3 then I’d move it up. Until then, they are a 2-3 team with a really bad loss and one good(ish) win. 

Any wins over Wisc, MSU, PSU, and OSU will pretty much instantly jump all the games up until this point. And any losses to those teams (except OSU) will become our worst of the season given the circumstances.

We’re at home against Wisconsin and PSU. MSU is on the road, but they’re going to be 3-3 when we play them. Losing to any of those teams will be worse than the ND game. 

bluepalooza

October 7th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^

Michigan's schedule hasn't been the toughest.  But it sure beats some of the teams that are ahead of them in polls. I think the NW win will turn out to be more impressive than most thought at the time.  Especially since they had 2 weeks to prepare as did MD. This team is showing me something we haven't seen around here in awhile.

bostonsix

October 7th, 2018 at 7:07 PM ^

I'd have to agree with Maryland being #1. Nebraska is really bad, and Maryland has good talent. I believe I saw someone post that their roster in recruiting rankings is better than any team in the west division. I also don't really count the fourth quarter defensive woes because there were a decent amount of second string players in and it seemed like Don Brown had taken his foot off the gas.

J.

October 7th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^

I thought the Nebraska game was more impressive -- the Maryland game was good, but the Nebraska game was a more complete throttling.  I'm not sure Maryland is that much better a team than Nebraska is.  Maryland did stop Michigan a couple of times in the first half, which Nebraska was completely unable to do.

Still, I'm hoping I'll have a new #1 performance this time next week. :)

bostonsix

October 7th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^

Maryland beat Texas, who just beat OU. Nebraska would get demolished by Texas, and that's another reason why I give Maryland the upper hand. I also think Maryland would have it's way with Nebraska if they played this year. 

It's just my opinion though that Maryland was a more solid win.

BlueinLansing

October 7th, 2018 at 5:21 PM ^

I think I would make Maryland #1, Maryland has beaten Texas and I believe Nebraska is an absolutely dreadful football team that might win 2 or 3 games this year, one of them being Bethune-Cookman

Mgoczar

October 7th, 2018 at 6:57 PM ^

Every M performance has been better than the last game in sequence. It's not just the points. This ascending team, ironically, reminds me of OSU teams from previous years that became a juggernaut by the end of the year. 

OSU though looks less impressive in every game : chinks against tcu, screen pass/lucky to get out at PSU, and sucking against the mighty Indiana (deboard coached ) 

EGD

October 7th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^

A few of our players said they thought Nebraska quit early in that game, so that makes it difficult to evaluate how well M played versus Nebraska just giving it away.  Against Maryland, Michigan just went out and took it.  So I’d probably put the Maryland game first.  Michigan proved something this week that they really didn’t get a chance to do against Nebraska.

Imjesayin

October 7th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^

‘They decidedly outperformed NW statistically. And this on the road (a known recent deficiency in the program). And to a likely bowl team (likely the only bowl team Michigan has played thus far).”

How is Northwestern the only bowl team we’ve played so far? What about Notre Dame?

EGD

October 7th, 2018 at 8:53 PM ^

Also Maryland is 3-2 and their next two games are against Rutgers and Illinois.  So, good chance they'll be at 5-2 with a chance to qualify for bowl eligibility by winning one of their last five games  (those last five are against IU, Iowa, MSU, Ohio State, and Penn State).  

Ron Utah

October 7th, 2018 at 8:30 PM ^

Maryland #1. Nebraska is bad. Real bad. Maryland is decent and we were able to dominate them and take away their strengths on both sides of the ball. 

Northwestern is probably the second most important win, if not the most impressive. Team showed it could stage a comeback on the road against a quality opponent. 

Nebraska was a throttling of a bad team that got worse as the game wore on. Extremely satisfying, but more in line with WMU and SMU. 

ND wasn’t as bad as it looked. OSU fans should be keenly aware that going on the road at night can make you look worse than you are. And ND is pretty good. 

This team should be 10-1 going to Columbus. 

Carcajou

October 7th, 2018 at 10:43 PM ^

Best performance? Probably Maryland or Nebraska.
Most IMPORTANT win/ critical performance?
Easily Northwestern: on the road ( a weak point); falling behind and catching up (overcoming another weak point); and winning late and holding on to the win.

Reader71

October 7th, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^

We lost the ND game, but it was not a bad performance. Defense was good, special teams were good. We turned the ball over too much, and our pass protection was the absolute shits, but we had the ball with a chance to tie it, on the road, at night, against a good team.